The NBA season begins next Tuesday, so fantasy basketball draft season is in full swing. Sleepers and busts drive the conversation. Alex Barutha and Kirien Sprecher analyzed Yahoo ADP data and put together their All-Fades team for the 2024-25 season. Here’s who they’re avoiding come draft day.
Fantasy Basketball Busts: All-Fades Team
Joel Embiid, 76ers (C)
ADP: 8.1
The reports out of Philadelphia during training camp should have all fantasy managers concerned. Embiid missed the entire preseason and isn’t practicing with the team while focusing on an individual ramp-up plan. In an effort to be as close to 100 percent for the playoffs, the former MVP is expected to take every precaution necessary during the regular season, including sitting out at least half of every back-to-back (Philly has 14 B2Bs this season) and wearing a brace on his left knee when available.
Embiid has played more than 60 regular-season games only four times in his eight-year career and never made more than 68 appearances in a single season. In three of the four seasons he failed to crack the 60-game threshold, Embiid finished outside the top 40 in eight-category settings. We don’t even know if Embiid will play on Opening Night versus the Bucks, coupled with the fact he’s going to sit out during B2Bs, and it’s almost impossible to justify taking him inside the top 50 this season.
Kawhi Leonard, Clippers (F)
ADP: 45.1
After a relatively healthy campaign for the oft-injured forward, Leonard missed the final eight games of the 2023-24 regular season and six of the Clippers’ eight postseason games due to inflammation in his surgically repaired right knee. Despite optimistic updates, Leonard had to leave Team USA ahead of the Paris Olympics this summer because he wasn’t healthy enough to play, and there haven’t been any reports of him taking part in on-court contact work during training camp.
Coach Ty Lue implied Leonard won’t be ready for the start of the regular season, but the team has yet to release an official update. Even if Leonard is cleared to play, fantasy managers should expect major restrictions, limiting his overall upside. There are certainly safer, higher-upside options around pick 40.
Lauri Markkanen, Jazz (F)
ADP: 30.3
Markkanen has missed significant time in March and April of the past two seasons – right when managers need him the most for the fantasy playoffs. Utah tanked the ends of those campaigns, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they did it again in 2024-25. The Western Conference is a gauntlet, and they project to be the second-worst team on that side of the country, only ahead of the Trail Blazers.
Markkanen is also more valuable in a category format than points format, since a huge part of his fantasy profile is being an efficient volume shooter. That efficiency doesn’t matter in points leagues. And he’s very build-specific in category formats. His combined assists, steals and blocks were 3.3 during the past two seasons. Managers targeting those stats shouldn’t really think about drafting him at all.
Managers constructing a build focused around efficient scoring, rebounds and/or threes can certainly find use for Markkanen. But his late-season shut-down risk and hyper-specific stat profile make him a fade for me in most contexts.
Mikal Bridges, Knicks (G)
ADP: 54.8
Depending on how you view what Cam Thomas did last year, Bridges goes from being either the No. 1 or No. 2 option on the Nets to being the clear No. 3 option on the Knicks this year. Maybe he’ll make up for a potential drop in scoring by being more efficient. Maybe he’ll increase his defensive deflections back to his early-career numbers. But I could also see a drop in rebounds and assists in this lineup.
Part of the reason you’re paying up for Bridges is health. He’s missed one game in his NBA career. He still only ranked 41st last year in total category value when punting turnovers. And he ranked 74th in fantasy points per game (32.6). If you’re taking him around pick 55, I think you’re grabbing him at his relative ceiling.
While I’m generally down on Bridges this year, some of this does come down to knowing your format. I’m definitely out on him at pick 55 in points leagues. In category formats, if you’re targeting efficient scoring and steals, he fits. Otherwise, I’m looking for more upside.
Bradley Beal, Suns (G)
ADP: 72.9
In fantasy basketball’s most boring take of all time, I am fading Beal this season. But that’s even considering his ADP. Beal’s production took a significant hit last year playing with the Suns, and he failed to stay healthy yet again. I’m not banking on either of those two things changing.
Beal ranked 51st per game in punt-turnover category value, and his 32.9 fantasy points per game ranked 71st. Even if he miraculously played all 82 games, he may not return value in points formats. It’d also be borderline in some category leagues. His upside almost entirely depends on Kevin Durant or Devin Booker suffering significant injuries, forcing the ball into Beal’s hands for huge stretches.
If you’re in a category format and targeting efficient scorers, I can see the argument for drafting Beal close to this range – maybe pick 80. He did score 18.2 PPG on 51.3 FG% and 81.3 FT% last year. But in almost any other condition, I’m not thinking about Beal until closer to pick 90.
Fantasy Basketball Draft Strategy
Check out RotoWire’s How to Play Fantasy Basketball guide for a complete walkthrough, but here is some basic advice:
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Check out custom NBA Fantasy Projections
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Look into Fantasy Basketball Mock Drafts
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Listen to a Fantasy Basketball Podcast
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Check in on Fantasy Basketball Player News
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Read Fantasy Basketball Articles
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Dive into RotoWire’s Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit
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Study NBA Depth Charts
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See RotoWire’s Fantasy Basketball Dynasty Rankings
