Dunn spent two seasons at Virginia before the Suns drafted him this past summer. He only played 13.0 minutes per game off the bench as a freshman, but he became a starter during his collegiate season and played well enough to get drafted. Dunn was arguably the best defender in the draft, but his offensive limitations resulted in him falling to the Suns at pick 28.
He has started in five of his 11 appearances so far this season and averaged 7.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks and 1.5 triples per game. The elite defensive numbers from college haven’t translated yet, but his improvement on the offensive end has been mind-boggling.
Dunn was one of my favorite prospects in this draft class, but I don’t think anyone could have possibly predicted that he would be hitting 3-pointers at this rate just 11 games into his career. To a lesser extent, this is the NBA’s version of Josh Allen’s development. Every fan is going to want to draft an elite defender that can’t shoot the ball because Dunn was able to make such a drastic leap immediately. Don’t fall for it! This is an incredibly unique case. Not to say a player won’t ever make a significant shooting leap from college to the pros, but Dunn made 12 threes in 65 games at Virginia. He has already hit 17 this season.
The early returns of this draft class haven’t been great (which was expected), but there have been plenty of flashes here and there. However, this development from Dunn is loud and in your face. The defensive numbers haven’t shown up yet, but those will come eventually. The main question about Dunn entering the draft was whether or not the defensive contributions would be worth the offensive liability. Well, he has answered those questions early on.
Shooting/scoring
Dunn didn’t enter the league with a polished offensive game, so any production on that side of the ball is great to see at this point. He isn’t a creative scorer, but on a team with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, it’s entirely acceptable to not create your own offense. They have enough guys that can do that. 27 of Dunn’s 31 made shots this year have been assisted, and all 17 of his 3-pointers have come off assists as well. Of the four unassisted shots, two were on fastbreaks, and the other two were putbacks.
A lack of shot diversity isn’t a bad thing. There are a lot of NBA players that have long careers by sticking to their strengths, and it is encouraging to see a rookie do that immediately to try and help a contending team win games. Perhaps he can eventually develop more on that end over the next few seasons, but our expectations shouldn’t be high. This guy is going to make his money on defense, but he can’t do that if his offense is keeping him off the floor.
During his sophomore season at Virginia, Dunn shot 20% on 3-pointers. In the NBA, he has made 37.8% of his triples so far. He’s tied with Dalton Knecht for fourth among rookies with 1.5 threes made per game. The only rookies that are averaging more are Kyshawn George, Jared McCain and Jaylen Wells, and among the top-five, only McCain is shooting a higher percentage. The other four names were considered to be some of the best shooting prospects entering the draft, so Dunn’s name being among those has been awesome to see.
Dunn has made 11 of his 13 shots in the restricted area (84.6%) so far this season. If he can simply continue to be a reliable floor spacer and finisher, he’ll continue to earn more minutes on a talented Suns team. He has only played 17.8 minutes per game so far, but he has played at least 20 minutes in three straight.
Playmaking
There isn’t much to say here, so we’ll keep it short and sweet. Dunn has one game this season where he has had more than one assist, and it was a game where he had two of them. Almost all of his assists have come within the flow of the offense by swinging the ball around or making the extra pass after someone else drives. The clip I attached is still within the flow of the offense, but it is a flash of something that I think can help Dunn take his game to the next level. Dunn sees the open paint and slips to the basket with DeMar DeRozan up at the same level as him. That creates a numbers advantage, since it is now a 2-on-1, with Josh Okogie making the decision to cut to the basket instead of sit in the corner. Dunn sees him, draws Keegan Murray up and then dumps it off for a layup. There are a lot of roll men that don’t make these types of reads, and a player like Draymond Green has made a Hall of Fame career out of it. Not to say that Dunn can be THAT good or even needs to be, but it’s encouraging to see him make this play.
This is definitely taking a magnifying glass to a specific play to try and provide a glimmer of hope, so don’t take this as Dunn is going to average five assists per game one day. He’s averaging less than one per game so far, but this was just to highlight a nice play he made. We’ll see if Mike Budenholzer can continue to put him in these situations and see what he can do.
On-ball defense
Dunn’s defended field goal percentage (DFG%) is sitting at 40.9%, which is second among rookies that have defended at least 10 shots per game this season. Only Kyshawn George (40.3%) has been better. Dunn has taken on some incredibly tough defensive assignments so far and more than held his own. Here are a few stars that he’s defended and how they have shot against him:
DeMar DeRozan: 6 points, 3-of-9 FGs
James Harden: 13 points, 4-of-13 FGs, 2 turnovers
LeBron James: 2 points, 0-of-4 FGs, 2 turnovers
Paul George: 3 points, 1-of-4 FGs, 1 turnover
Luka Doncic (17 points, 4-of-8 FGs) has been the only star that has had consistent success with Dunn as the primary defender, and that’s not a reason to be worried about the rookie. The Suns trust him to take on the toughest matchups when he’s on the floor, and he has been effective so far. Early success like this should have fantasy managers confident that he’ll be around for a long, long time.
Off-ball defense
The hype surrounding Dunn entering the draft was because of his elite defensive numbers. He averaged 1.3 steals and 2.2 blocks in 27.5 minutes per game during his sophomore year. It is certainly a bit disappointing that he hasn’t been able to enjoy that same success early on, but the numbers are starting to show up. Over his last three games, Dunn has two steals and four blocks in 24.3 minutes per game. Durant has been out, but if Dunn continues to play well, he should have a consistent role off the bench when the team is healthy. Unfortunately, the minutes have been anything but consistent this season. If Budenholzer can get him 18-22 minutes per game when the rotation is at full strength, it should be enough time for him to rack up the defensive numbers.
Dunn’s combination of incredible athleticism and elite defensive instincts have made him a dangerous defensive presence both on and off the ball at the collegiate and professional level. Trust the process here. The stocks are coming.
Situation
The Suns knew that they needed to add talent around their three stars this summer after getting swept by Minnesota, but they likely didn’t expect such an elite defender to fall into their lap at the end of the first round. There isn’t a starting spot open for Dunn with the way the roster is currently constructed, but it may not be far off. Durant will be a free agent in 2026, and Beal will be one in 2027, assuming he picks up his $57 million player option after next season (spoiler alert, he will). The next two seasons are a great opportunity for Dunn to prove that he can contribute to winning at a high level. He may play the role of a part-time starter that is usually one of their first options off the bench for the next two years. That should be a large enough role for Dunn to contribute in 9-cat leagues, but he’ll have a chance to truly become a fantasy star within two seasons. Situations in the NBA are always changing, but barring any drastic moves, Dunn should be a full-time starter and fantasy stud within two seasons.
Overall outlook
I was excited about Dunn before the draft, and I’m even more excited about him now. In 9-category dynasty leagues, Dunn has the makings of a future star. The shooting has been so much better than expected. The defensive numbers are coming. The playmaking has potential. The turnovers are non-existent because he never has the ball in his hands long. He’s playing like a perfect role player that can be so much more than that in fantasy hoops.
