It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of Daniels, and he was a favorite among fantasy analysts all summer. I don’t claim to be his biggest supporter, but I will do my best to get you on the hype train. The start to his third season has been a lot of fun, and he has been one of the best players in fantasy basketball early on this season.
Daniels played one season with the G League Ignite, where he averaged 12.0 points, 7.1 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 2.0 steals per game, leading to the Pelicans drafting him with the eighth overall pick in 2022. He played 17.7 minutes per game as a rookie and 22.3 minutes per game during his second year in the league, which limited his upside in fantasy basketball. Daniels already showed flashes of being an elite defender, but New Orleans was stacked with talent on the perimeter and already had one of the best defensive players in the league in Herb Jones. Dynasty managers were clamoring for more minutes for Daniels, and their wish was granted this summer when he was shipped to Atlanta as part of a package that sent Dejounte Murray to the Pelicans.
With the Hawks, Daniels has already played six games, starting in all of them. Some games have been better than others, but he has been a top-60 player in 9-cat leagues early on, with averages of 12.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.2 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.3 triples in 29.7 minutes per game. With a Yahoo ADP of 143.9, Daniels has been an incredible value in redraft leagues, but is this something that can be maintained in dynasty formats?
Shooting/scoring
Daniels is averaging a career-high 1.3 triples on 3.8 attempts per game. 34.8% is elite, but it is a step up from 31% over his first two seasons. However, he has actually been more effective on pull-up 3-pointers (4-of-8) than on catch and shoot threes (4-of-15). 19 of his 23 attempts have been considered “wide open”, which means that there is at least six feet of separation from the closest defender. Those are great shots, but he’s only made seven of them (36.8%). In reality, Daniels is shooting better than he was previously, but he still isn’t shooting the ball all that well. Seven of his eight 3-pointers that he has made this year were assisted, with Trae Young setting up three of them. Young already has nine assists to Daniels this season, which is over 28% of his makes. As the two continue to develop chemistry, Daniels will only get easier looks.
Daniels is currently shooting 76% from inside five feet on 4.2 attempts per game. Among players that take at least four shots from that range per game, Josh Hart is the only non-post player that is shooting a higher percentage. A lot of those attempts have come from putbacks and fastbreaks, but he has shown some fun driving flashes and a willingness to cut to the rim.
Playmaking
The numbers haven’t improved as a passer, though that can at least partially be attributed to playing alongside Young and Jalen Johnson, who are the team’s primary playmakers and ball handlers. However, Daniels can fit right in as a reliable secondary or tertiary playmaker. An issue that the Hawks have run into since Trae was drafted was that they couldn’t figure out how to score when teams doubled him. Dejounte was an answer for a period of time, but Daniels’ passing fits exactly what they need. He knows where to go to get open and can quickly analyze the defense to find the advantage when there are two defenders guarding Trae. Daniels isn’t going to be a ball dominant assist hunter, but he knows how to play within the offense, which naturally leads to assists.
On-ball defense
The offensive improvements are nice, but this is where Daniels really makes his money. He is currently second in steals per game and is one of two Hawks that has a positive defensive box plus/minus. He’s a Bugatti parked next to a mobile home in Atlanta as the best defender on a team that is one of four allowing over 120 points per game this season. Daniels has done a solid job, but it’s an adjustment to become the guy that guards the opposing team’s best player all night after playing your first two years as a reserve. He’ll continue to improve, but the numbers in fantasy have been excellent regardless.
Many of his steals have come from his 6’10.5” wingspan, which allows him to poke the ball out from behind opposing ball handlers. Even if he gets beat (which happens to even the best defenders in the NBA), he isn’t out of the play and can still help his team get a stop. When he is able to stay in front, that wingspan can lead to both steals and blocks. He has only swatted a handful of shots this season, but it’s clear that he really makes an impact on plays that he does.
Off-ball defense
Daniels’ main task every night is to take the other team’s best scorer out of the game. Sometimes it’s a ball dominant player that he’ll have to guard through pick and rolls. Other times, teams are creative in how they get the ball to their stars. Daniels has been adept at fighting through off-ball screens and sneaking his hands into passing lanes. Offensive players can’t get lazy when he’s on the floor, since he’ll easily turn it into a fastbreak opportunity.
Situation
Daniels has benefitted a little bit early on from Atlanta’s injury woes. Though he was part of that for two games, Bogdan Bogdanovic (1 game), Kobe Bufkin (0) and Vit Krejci (4) have all been sidelined a lot. Bogi is the main one that may creep into Daniels’ minutes, but his 29.7 minutes per game shouldn’t be too far off from what he’ll get when everyone is healthy.
Trae is the best point guard that he has played with, but Daniels will never be more than a secondary playmaker when everyone is healthy. That isn’t a bad thing, since that will help him remain efficient. De’Andre Hunter has only played in two games so far, and he is another guy that will guard the best scorers on the other team every night. Still, with the amount of elite scoring threats on every team, Daniels will be in on the action every night to try and make the Hawks a respectable defense.
The Hawks are in the middle of a retooling phase (I think?), and they want to see how this team fits around Young. Early on, Daniels appears to be exactly what the doctor ordered as Trae’s shooting guard. A low-usage, efficient defender that can knock down open shots. He doesn’t need to become a guy that takes nine 3-pointers per game, but if he continues to get better at stretching the floor, the entire team will benefit from more space around Young.
Overall outlook
He has played well early on, but where can he continue to grow? On offense, it starts with knocking down shots. If he can improve on his catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage (which we discussed earlier) and free throw percentage (37.5% on 1.3 attempts won’t hurt you much, but it’s still a major yikes), he should easily be able to get to 15 points per game. He doesn’t have a midrange game, and managers shouldn’t expect him to become an elite scoring option, but he’ll make his money by doing a little bit of everything.
His value will mostly be wrapped up in his steal numbers, but he has improved his numbers across the board while playing an increased role. He’s still only 21 years old, and this is his first time with a permanent starting job in the NBA. Let’s enjoy the continued rise of this young, Australian star.
Stats via NBA.com/stats
