Fantasy Basketball Dynasty Weekly: Was Jared McCain the steal of the draft?

In what has been deemed a weak rookie class, any flash of production can get people excited quickly. Last season, Victor Wembanyama’s generational numbers overshadowed a lot of other rookies, and it took some of the excitement out of young guys playing well at times. That’s not the case this season. Any big game out of a rookie is magnified to the point that one night can completely shake up the Rookie of the Year odds.

That’s what makes McCain’s stretch stick out. Sure, it can at least partially be attributed to some of the injury woes that the team has dealt with early on, but he still took advantage of the opportunity. He has gone from a player that would see some extra minutes with Tyrese Maxey out to a player that Nick Nurse can’t take out of the lineup. McCain has solidified his starting spot, and he’ll share the backcourt with Maxey for years to come.

All three of Maxey, Joel Embiid and Paul George were sidelined against the Cavs last week, which allowed McCain to get the first start of his career. He ended up finishing with 34 points, 10 assists, two steals and six 3-pointers. That was only the third time in NBA history that a rookie reached those marks in a game, with Stephen Curry doing it in 46 minutes and Jason Kidd needing 49 minutes. McCain did it in just 38 minutes against one of the best defensive teams in the league.

Wednesday night was the first time that Philly had their newly formed big three available at the same time, which was concerning for McCain’s production. How well would he do as the fourth option? Well, Maxey is still on a minutes restriction, and George left with a knee injury, which happened to be on the same knee that he hyperextended during the preseason. At least for now, the question of how this all fits has been delayed once again.

McCain remained in the starting lineup and played a career-high 41 minutes. He extended his streak of games with at least 20 points and three 3-pointers to six games, which puts him in a tie with Allen Iverson for the second-longest streak by a rookie. He’ll have a chance to tie Jalen Green’s rookie record of seven games against the Nets on Friday.

Of course, his production now is relevant to redraft leagues, but how should dynasty managers value him? Is this early success a sneak peek into stardom, or just a young player benefiting from the ball being put in his hands?

Shooting/scoring

One thing that gives me confidence about McCain long-term is that, while he is effective with the ball in his hands, he isn’t a true point guard. It is easy to lump him into that role because he’s 6’3”, and he has been a playmaker for Philly early on this season. I’d attribute that more to the absence of the other ball handlers, and the 76ers not wanting to rely on Kyle Lowry to orchestrate the entire offense in 2024. In spurts, it’s fine, but putting the ball in the hands of the first round pick and seeing what he can do just makes more sense.

McCain averaged just 1.9 assists per game in college. His 10-assist game and stretch of four straight games with at least four assists is a nice bonus, not what was expected of him, especially on this team. One of the best statistical comparisons for him in college is Devin Booker. A lot of their advanced numbers, such as Player Efficiency Rating, True Shooting Percentage, Effective Field Goal Percentage, 3-Point Attempt Rate, Free Throw Rate, Assist Percentage, Turnover Percentage, Usage Percentage, Offensive Win Shares/40 Minutes, Offensive Box Plus/Minus and 3-Pointers/100 Possessions were all very similar. Their roles and situations weren’t the exact same, and development is not linear. Also, projecting players simply isn’t that easy. This isn’t to say that McCain will be Booker, but it is encouraging. McCain doesn’t need to rely on having the ball in his hands to have success, but it is something that he can develop eventually, which would only make him more valuable.

Also, it is a myth that McCain has filled Maxey’s role and benefited from it. What McCain has done is quite different from what Maxey does. 81.3% of McCain’s 3-pointers this season have been assisted, and 50.6% of his total makes have come off assists. In comparison, Maxey has been assisted on just 22.9% of his makes this season and on just 31.8% of his 3-pointers.

McCain has had success without needing to dominate the ball. He plays within the flow of the offense. However, that doesn’t really line up with what his team has done. The 76ers are last in assists per game. They’re also 28th in shots off of 0 dribbles and fourth in both shots taken off of 3-6 dribbles and shots taken off of 7+ dribbles. While this may seem concerning for the team, it’s how they’ve operated in recent years. They’ve been in the bottom five for potential assists for years, and while it may look worse than normal this season, that can be at least partially attributed to the team simply hitting less shots. They’re last in field goal percentage.

Here’s the encouraging part. McCain has still been good. He plays on a team that doesn’t have an offensive philosophy that prioritizes the shots that he has been best at, and he has still been able to produce. Should that be viewed as an unsustainable hot streak or as a star that is trying to shine through the dark clouds of isolation basketball? Only time will tell.

Regardless of how they’ve used him, McCain has had success. Most of his points have come courtesy of an assist, but that doesn’t mean that he hasn’t been effective with the ball in his hands. It just means that most of his production has come in a way that should be sustainable even when the stars in Philadelphia are healthy. When looking at points per possession (PPP), McCain ranks in the 77th percentile as the pick and roll ball handler, the 75th percentile as a spot up shooter and in the 71st percentile in isolation. That’s in the entire league, not just rookies. Among rookies, he is first in points per game off of drives (5.9) and off of catch-and-shoot shots (4.9). He’s also second among rookies in points per game on pull-up shots (3.6).

McCain has taken 6.2 of his 11.6 shots per game after dribbling at least three times. As expected, his efficiency has been lower on those shots, though it hasn’t been awful. I know I’ve thrown a lot of numbers at you, so let’s briefly summarize what McCain has done so far as a rookie. He has made shots at a high rate. He has hit shots both off the dribble and off of passes. The shots off of passes shouldn’t be impacted by the availability of other stars. He’ll likely see less shots off the dribble when everyone is healthy, but McCain has still been effective off the bounce. He has the makings of an offensive star.

Playmaking

A lot of what McCain has done as a passer has been within the flow of the offense. He has created shots for teammates, but a lot of his assists have come in transition or by simply making the extra pass. That’s entirely okay, especially for a rookie on (what was supposed to be) a playoff team. The occasional flash that reminds us of his upside as a passer while remembering that shouldn’t be his role this season is enough. Whether he ends up developing into a true point guard or remains effective as a secondary playmaker, the talent is there. When all three of Philly’s All-Stars are healthy (if that happens), McCain may not get many chances to remind us what he can be as a passer. When the tough times come, managers shouldn’t forget what he has done when he has had the ball in his hands over the last few games.

Defense

The numbers haven’t been in McCain’s favor on the other side of the floor. McCain has made some plays and been able to turn defense into easy offense, but it has only happened a few times this season. His defensive field goal percentage hasn’t been great, but that’s not the end of the world for a rookie. He’ll have time to get better on that end. He averaged 1.1 steals per game in college, so we shouldn’t ever expect him to become elite in that category. We can always turn back to this defensive rep in the clutch on LaMelo Ball. It is just one play, but it was about as perfect as it could’ve been played on one of the best offensive players the league has to offer.

Situation

Obviously, McCain has been able to shine because of the injuries. He wasn’t really in the rotation early on this season and only entered it when Maxey went down. This isn’t a situation where he’s going to be pushed out of the rotation with Maxey back; McCain has earned a starting job. There are a few rookies that are starting because of injuries or because they’re on bad teams. Sure, the 76ers have been one of those bad teams, but that’s not how they were constructed. McCain wasn’t supposed to be arguably their best player at this point of the season. He has outplayed veterans to earn his spot and outplayed the team’s stars, even if it hasn’t resulted in wins. In a matter of weeks, McCain has gone from a player that has streaming appeal because of his situation to a player that the team simply can’t afford to not have on the floor.

Overall outlook

The concerns have to be acknowledged. What if McCain stops hitting shots at the rate he has? What if he struggles in a lower volume role? What if defenses start figuring out how to guard him? Of course, those things can happen. Progression isn’t linear, and just because a player plays well early on, doesn’t mean they’re destined to be a Hall of Famer. There have been plenty of rookies that have had success that haven’t continued it throughout their career.

However, based on what we’ve seen, this 20-year-old has been a monster on the offensive end early on. The numbers will likely dip with more talent around him, but the expectation isn’t that he has at least 20 points and three 3-pointers every game for the rest of his career. He’ll still be a strong option in redraft leagues, but dynasty managers should feel like they got a steal.