Fantasy basketball managers figured incoming Bucks PG Damian Lillard was not going to replicate the incredible statistics he compiled in recent seasons for the Blazers once he joined Giannis Antetokounmpo and a veteran squad just a month before the season began.
In fact, Lillard saw his lofty usage rate crater for Milwaukee, and his scoring average dropped from 32.2 PPG to 24.3 PPG, his lowest figure in a full season in a decade. This was not vintage Lillard, and fantasy managers noticed. Today, he is merely a third-round pick in ESPN ADP.
Well, sign me up for this third-round pick every time, then! Lillard still ranked 20th in PPG and 10th in APG in his “down” season. Only 23 players scored ESPN fantasy points, and he was 17th on the Player Rater, achieving all this despite an occasionally rocky campaign in a new offense, with a controversial coaching change, and while dealing with notable off-court issues.
Lillard may not have been a value pick last season, when many selected him among the top 15, but certainly he wasn’t bad.
Lillard leads my “Do Draft” team for this season, which is mainly to say the value he provides in relation to what it costs to secure him to your fantasy teams is clearly worth it. I could put Spurs C Victor Wembanyama, Nuggets C Nikola Jokic and Mavericks PG Luka Doncic on this go-get-’em list, but don’t you know you have to have these fellows?
They are the top three picks, in some order (though I listed them in my personal order). Lillard, however, entering his age-34 season, is viewed differently, an older gent with his best days behind him.
This is true. Lillard’s best days likely are behind him, but good days still remain. Sure, Antetokounmpo remains a fantasy stalwart and top pick, and the Bucks still boast vastly underrated C Brook Lopez, SF Khris Middleton and PF Bobby Portis, among others.
We don’t need Lillard’s “best” days in Round 3. We need what he did last season, and there is every reason to believe he will perform better than those numbers, anyway. ESPN Fantasy projects 25.7 PPG, 7 APG and 43.3 fantasy PPG. Sounds like a perfect third-round pick to me.
Other players I want to draft (ADP order)
Chet Holmgren, C, Oklahoma City Thunder (ADP: 28.9): No, he is not quite Wembanyama, but it also does not cost close to a top-2 overall selection to get him. Holmgren in Round 3 is also a steal. Despite a rail-thin body, there is potential for a 20-point, 10-rebound campaign, and we know he will block shots and shoot well. Load up on 20-and-10 fellows who block shots, because they are a rare breed.
Tyrese Maxey, PG/SG, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP: 26.2): Some are fading Maxey because the 76ers added veteran SF/PF Paul George this offseason. Nope, I don’t buy it. George can still hit 3-pointers and score when he decides to suit up, and he is better than Tobias Harris, but Maxey has the ball in his hands and directs the offense. Do not expect the statistical decline that is baked into his ADP here.
Bam Adebayo, C, Miami Heat (ADP: 32.2): An annual option on this list, Adebayo hasn’t quite reached an average of 20 PPG and 10 RPG in any season, but he sure has come close, all while providing assists, steals and solid shooting. Not every pick has to be about upside. Reliability matters, and Bam provides it.
James Harden, PG/SG, LA Clippers (ADP: 33.6): George’s departure from the Clippers is a big deal for Harden’s usage, though. Harden averaged “only” 16.6 PPG and 8.5 APG last season, his first for the Clippers, but it would hardly be a surprise if he bounced back to a 20-and-10 level. Last season, I wanted no part of Harden, as he was going late in the first round of so many drafts, but he is an absolute steal as a fourth- or fifth-round selection.
Rudy Gobert, C, Minnesota Timberwolves (ADP: 61.1): Perhaps you aren’t a fan of him or his style of play, but it is tough to argue with 12.9 RPG and 2.1 BPG, and 66% FG, and this is all available in Round 6 or 7. Gobert handled bigger minutes and delivered bigger numbers than he did in Year 1 in Minnesota. There is no reason to expect decline now.
Evan Mobley, PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers (ADP: 62.5): We keep waiting for his scoring numbers to rise to at least 18 PPG, and perhaps this is the season. Mobley is a mature player and premier defender, and clearly there is room for offensive growth. He doesn’t have to carry your fantasy team, just contribute as he has in the past.
Derrick White, PG/SG, Boston Celtics (ADP: 67.8): I doubt many fantasy managers realize White finished 36th in ESPN fantasy points, and he was 24th on the Player Rater. He is a prime example of how fantasy points can evolve from stats other than traditional scoring, including assists, 3-pointers and blocked shots. Incidentally, White outscored his far more famous teammate Jaylen Brown last season.
Darius Garland, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (ADP: 75.3): Just give me all the point guards. For those in roto formats, you can find hollow scorers in free agency. You can find rebounders. Heck, Andre Drummond and his 10 RPG will go undrafted in every standard league. You can’t find myriad reliable, relevant point guards after the first round or two. Garland averaged 21.6 PPG and 7.8 APG two seasons ago, when he was healthy. He is healthy now. I can’t believe his ADP.
Jalen Johnson, PF, Atlanta Hawks (ADP: 84.0): Johnson broke out last season, but there is far more upside left, enough for him to become a 20-point, 10-rebound option. The Hawks need him to score and board more. I cannot fathom how Johnson isn’t a top-100 option in ADP. I would take him in Round 6 or 7 for sure.
Jalen Duren, C, Detroit Pistons (ADP: 97.3): Duren made great strides in his second season in scoring, rebounding and passing, and we can’t help but notice him shooting 79% from the free throw line. Most centers do not shoot so well from the stripe, often costing fantasy managers. We know Duren is capable of blocking shots, too, so expect an uptick this year. Getting a double-double machine in Round 9 or 10 is a steal. Charlotte’s Mark Williams and new Wizard Jonas Valanciunas are big-men bargains as well.
Brook Lopez, C, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP: 108.1): What am I missing here? Lopez was a top-50 option in points formats and 28th in roto/categories. It hardly matters how he gets those numbers, or how old he is. He keeps outperforming his ADP, and by a lot. If I could lead this list with him every season, I probably would.
Josh Hart, SG/SF, New York Knicks (ADP: 120.5): Hart is tougher to roster in roto/categories formats, since he neither scores much nor provides many 3-pointers, but for those who have to fill positions, having a guard rebound to this high level is golden. Hart goes undrafted in many leagues.
Scoot Henderson, PG, Portland Trail Blazers (ADP: 124.5): An overwhelmed but clearly talented Henderson disappointed during his rookie year, but he was also 19 years of age and a bit unsure of his role. Then he averaged 18.9 PPG, 7.9 APG and 2.3 SPG over the final 14 contests. A potential top-50 player lurks, and I am amazed he slips outside the 10th round in drafts.
Trey Murphy III, SG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans (ADP: 132.6): Murphy may never become a great all-around fantasy asset, but his first name tells the story. He hits lots of 3-pointers. In fact, Murphy averaged 3.7 3-pointers per game over the final month last season, along with nearly 19 PPG. Murphy may end up third in 3-pointers per game this season, after only Stephen Curry and Doncic. He is an excellent last-round pick in ESPN formats.
