Fantasy basketball experts draft breakdown: The Athletic’s Eric Wong and Stan Son go ‘toe-to-toe’

Date:

While our main drafts have yet to take place, Stan Son and I, Eric Wong, have already gone toe-to-toe a few times this season. So I thought it’d be useful to analyze how one of those drafts went, with each of us assessing our picks and sizing up our competition. Here are the league details:

NFBKC Draft Champions league

  • 8-cat Roto scoring
  • Snake draft with third-round reversal
  • 12 teams x 25 rounds = 300 players drafted
  • No trades or player pickups
  • Slow draft that started on August 31

To view a larger screenshot of the entire draft board, CLICK HERE.

Round-by-round picks/analysis

Round 1

 Stan: AD was a no-brainer pick for me. NFBKC requires two starting centers, so they all get elevated, but the ones who don’t put you behind in points and ding your free-throw percentage are Willy Wonka golden tickets. AD literally stuffs the stat sheet, provides the big man stats and even dished out 3.5 dimes last season. JJ Redick also wants him shooting more treys, so maybe he joins the 1/1/1 club? Back in 2019-20, AD drained 1.2 treys per game. The obvious worry is injury, as the 76 games played last season was the first time over 60 games since that 2019-20 season, but the risk/reward is worth it.

Eric: I passed on taking a center here, and sure enough, Chet Holmgren and Domantas Sabonis were both taken in the next few picks. But even before Karl-Anthony Towns was traded away, I felt like Edwards was primed to take another leap. The KAT trade merely solidifies that thinking.

Round 2

Eric: Barnes gives me well-rounded stats from the forward position, with point guard-like assists to go with center-like shot-blocking numbers. If Holmgren was available, I likely would have taken him for his superior shooting efficiency.

Stan: I was taking Harden pretty aggressively in all my early drafts. I think the usage and field-goal attempts all spike back up with Paul George in Philly, and there’s always the injury risk with Kawhi Leonard. Harden pairs well with AD because he addresses assists while boosting the free-throw percentage. AD provides the blocks that Harden is lacking while helping with the field-goal percentage. After two rounds, I am in a Zen-like state because my squad is very balanced. Woo saaaa!

Round 3

Eric: With much more limited F/C eligibility for big men when compared to ESPN and Yahoo, it’s common for center runs to happen early and often in NFBKC drafts. Sure enough, my Adebayo pick led to Towns and Alperen Sengun getting picked immediately after. This pick was made before the Towns trade, or else I would have preferred KAT over Bam.

Stan: Since AD gives me a nice base in rebounds and blocks, I can continue building my points base. With Dejounte, I get the added bonus of getting assists and steals while he also chips in some rebounds. I like his situation in New Orleans much better than Atlanta and have him projected to see an increase in the boards and dimes.

Round 4

Stan: The forward position can get ugly later on, so it’s time to address it now. I feel good about where I’m at in terms of assists and the defensive stats, but I want to continue building the points base because I’m going to need the buffer later. Siakam has averaged at least 20 ppg in each of the past five seasons. The Pacers were second in offensive pace last season and will likely be up there again, so I love the environment. In addition, there should be more cohesion after joining the team midseason.

Eric: In need of an assists boost, I was hoping that Ja Morant would fall to me. Alas, he got picked one spot before! I pivoted and took Brown, another athletic, all-around forward to join Barnes. But I’ll admit, I’m too confident in my team’s free throw shooting after picking Barnes, Bam and Brown back-to-back-to-back, as none of them are likely to shoot over 80% FT.

Round 5

Eric: I drafted White as a lite version of Scottie Barnes. Who were the only players last season to total 80+ blocks, 100+ threes and 350+ assists? Just White, Barnes and Kevin Durant. I considered taking my second center here, and in hindsight, perhaps I should have done that.

Stan: My focus was on forwards once again. I felt like I could wait a few rounds before another center run happened and going with a forward here would have kept me from being boxed in. I contemplated Tobias Harris.  I think he gets an uptick going to Detroit. He’s boring but solid across the board. But one thing I’ve learned from Eric over the years is that taking shots on talented young players who can break out is usually a wise path to take.

Eric’s favorite value picks from Rounds 1-5

  • No. 45 pick overall — Ja Morant, MEM
  • No. 54 pick overall — Immanuel Quickley, TOR

This seems like a big if given that he couldn’t even make it through one preseason game without getting hurt, but Morant at No. 45 could end up being a steal if he can simply stay healthy and increase his scoring efficiency a bit. And Quickley is capable of providing similar value to several guards drafted ahead of him in the third and fourth rounds.

Round 6

Stan: I knew I was going to hit big men hard soon, so I wanted to continue pounding points. There’s not a much better option than Cam, as he should huck and chuck to his heart’s content on a tanking Nets team.

Eric: I was feeling good about Williams when I made this pick, but now that he’s nursing a foot tendon injury, I am definitely a bit concerned. Brook Lopez was taken one pick after, and Lopez definitely has a more proven track record of staying healthy. I’ll be happy if I can get 70+ games out of Williams.

Round 7

Eric: Another failed center pick here, as I had no clue at the time that Okongwu wasn’t fully recovered from his big toe injury. This pick looks even worse when you consider that I passed on Zubac for him, but at the time I was favoring Okongwu’s shooting touch: Okongwu is over 78% FT over his past two seasons, while Zubac is under 71% FT.

Stan: Thanks, Eric! I have a lot of Zubac this season, as he has been one of my favorite later-round centers. I need rebounds and blocks after pounding points the past few rounds, and I also addressed my second center spot.

Round 8

Stan: After my Cam Thomas pick, I had a good idea what I wanted to do. I knew I had to address assists and centers, as it was starting to get ugly at the position. Reaves was my target here, so I’m happy he was available. I get some dimes and he can get buckets while providing excellent percentages. In addition, he’s also a young, talented player who could level up.

Eric: My team’s assists and free throw percentage were looking vulnerable, so I grabbed White. However, I would have preferred Reaves, since Josh Giddey is a real threat to White’s assist numbers. Thanks for sniping me, Stan.

Round 9

Eric: The safe and steady pick here would have been someone like Jrue Holiday or Alex Caruso. But I wanted some extra excitement, and Green is the ultimate mystery pick. He could average 16 ppg on 40% FG shooting, and get traded midseason. Or, he could average 24.5 points and 3.5 treys per game, like he did over his final 24 games of last season.

Stan: I need rebounds and blocks. He may only play around 20 minutes early on, as Deandre Ayton is still in Portland, but Clingan should be able to block some shots and grab some rebounds during that time. There is also upside if Ayton gets moved or shut down later in the season.

Round 10

Stan: I wanted to lock up a fourth center. Reid actually fit perfectly for my squad because I was falling behind in treys at this point. He also provides some defensive stats. The Towns trade hadn’t happened yet, so I was expecting the status quo from last season, but he could see more playing time now, which I obviously don’t have a problem with.

Eric: I was hoping to improve my center depth in this round, but Stan snatched Reid, and Bobby Portis was also drafted before me. So instead I went with the best player available in Barrett, giving me a fun Raptors duo to watch. Unfortunately, Barrett is yet another one of my players now nursing an injury.

Eric’s favorite value picks from Rounds 6-10

  • No. 79 pick overall — Ivica Zubac, LAC
  • No. 112 pick overall — Keyonte George, UTA

I’m going to applaud Stan for aggressively going after the Harden-Zubac pairing well before the Clippers informed us that Kawhi Leonard was still experiencing swelling in his knee. And George in the 10th round is looking really nice, as he’s steadily moved up draft boards since this draft.

Eric’s roster after 10 rounds

Guards: Anthony Edwards, Derrick White, Coby White, Jalen Green, RJ Barrett

Forwards: Scottie Barnes, Jaylen Brown

Centers: Bam Adebayo (F/C), Mark Williams, Onyeka Okongwu

Stan’s roster after 10 rounds

Guards: James Harden, Dejounte Murray, Cam Thomas, Austin Reaves

Forwards: Pascal Siakam, Franz Wagner

Centers: Anthony Davis (F/C), Ivica Zubac, Donovan Clingan, Naz Reid

Round 11

Eric: In this draft especially, I was favoring all-around players, as opposed to guys who really dominate in one or two categories, but have obvious flaws as well. Avdija was probably the best passing forward still available, and he comes with solid upside if the Blazers can jettison Jerami Grant via trade.

Stan: I’m not too happy with this pick, especially after Chris Finch said that he may monitor Conley’s minutes and not play him as much during the regular season, but I needed and wanted dimes.

Round 12

Stan: I’m probably falling for the banana-in-the-tailpipe again. I had visions of grandeur that Williams would level up with DeMar DeRozan gone and the Bulls signing him to a multi-year contract. Hey, he’s a talented, young player, right? Well, he’s young, but we are not sure yet how talented. Anyways, Williams had a setback in minicamp, experiencing discomfort in his surgically repaired foot. Yeah, I hate this pick.

Eric: I’m not sure how much I trust Olynyk at this stage of his career, but he put up nice numbers for the Raptors last season, and it’s not like the player ahead of him (Jakob Poeltl) is an elite starting center. I might have to use him early on if Okongwu isn’t ready by opening night.

Round 13

Eric: Now we’re talking! Did I finally nail one of my center picks? Smith proved last year that he can be a solid contributor off the bench, and his fantasy ceiling is pretty high given that Nikola Vucevic is halfway out the door.

Stan: Oubre can get buckets and will likely start and play close to 30 minutes. The usage will take a hit with Paul George in town, but I just want guys who will be on the court and not just stand in the corner.

Round 14

  • Stan’s pick (No. 162) — Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, ORL
  • Eric’s pick (No. 166) — Aaron Nesmith, IND

Stan: I was light on treys and KCP is going to start and play a ton of minutes.

Eric: Late in drafts, there are two main strategies that I consider to be viable. One strategy is to draft proven players on potent teams, with the idea that a rising tide lifts all ships. The other strategy is to draft unproven players on crappy teams, with the idea that the more those teams lose, the more likely they’ll be to play their younger prospects. I went with the former strategy here, as the Pacers have a high-octane offense, and Nesmith is one of their key wings.

Round 15

Eric: As detailed above, it doesn’t hurt to have the backup point guard to one of the league’s most prolific offenses. McConnell has proven time and time again that he’ll deliver when called upon.

Stan: McDaniels is right at 30 mpg the past two seasons and has shown upside at both ends of the court. He’s a low-usage player, though, so he’s not going to be dropping 20 points on the regular, and the defensive stats haven’t been raining down like manna from the heavens, but I think there’s a chance he can level up and provide a little something, something across the board. Plus, he’s a forward, and I need more of those.

Eric’s favorite value picks from Rounds 11-15

I’ve been hesitant to draft Ivey given all of Detroit’s free agent signings who may cut into his minutes, but he’s played well to start preseason. And looking back, Hart this late is an absolute steal, given that we know he’s going to play huge minutes for the Knicks now.

Round 16

Stan: I know, this pick is gross and I just puked in my mouth, but Martin will start to begin the season and could fall into some stats. He should get plenty of open looks playing alongside Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and PG.

Eric: Wanting some extra 3-point shooting potential, I went with Kispert here at the end of Round 16. Others who I would have considered but were already off the board include Gradey Dick and Sam Hauser.

Rounds 17-20

Eric’s picks

Stan’s picks

Eric: Pritchard and Braun are two players on title contending teams who should be relied on a bit more this season. Braun is a bit of an unknown, and I’m curious to see what he can do. Whitmore and Pippen Jr. don’t have a ton of NBA experience under their belts, but Whitmore has shown he can be an explosive scorer off the bench, while Pippen Jr. is a defensive dynamo with a fantasy-friendly game.

Stan: Barnes is my Caleb Martin 2.0. Gross, but he’s going to play. Hey, if you’re not on the court, you can’t provide fantasy goodies. I wanted some more treys, so Kennard is one of the best… when healthy. Memphis should be much improved this season and Kennard should get plenty of good picks. Anthony is a proven bucket getter, while Wright will provide some steals.

Eric’s favorite value picks from Rounds 17-20

Given that Jarred Vanderbilt isn’t 100% healthy and that Hachimura played well to close out last season (except for the playoffs), it’s surprising whenever Hachimura falls out of the Top 200. And Braun and Strawther are going to get lots of opportunities this season, so one, or even both, of these picks could end up looking pretty nice.

Rounds 21-25

Eric’s picks

Stan’s picks

Eric: Digging deep into the end of this draft, I tried to mix things up a bit. NAW played a key role for the T-Wolves during last year’s impressive playoff run, but I like him a little bit less now that Donte DiVincenzo has been added to the mix. Williams will likely be thrown into the fire because Utah is going to give their younger players plenty of run this season.

Wiggins is an overlooked player on OKC’s talent-laden team, and I’m hopeful he’ll receive some spot starts. Boucher is my break-glass-in-case-of-emergency center, but I’m hoping I won’t have to use him. And I polished off my draft with a sentimental pick, as I would love to see a healthy and productive season from Lonzo Ball.

Stan: Beasley will be a source of treys and Alvarado will bring steals. DFS will likely get traded at some point, but until then, he will likely play a ton. Lyles is… well, I’m just looking for dudes with a pulse at this stage. He can provide some treys and boards in around 20 mpg. I like Christie a lot. He’s a good 3-and-D player but has some chops to attack the basket as well. He won’t have a huge role, but I think he’s a significant part of the rotation, probably getting around 20 mpg.

Eric’s favorite value picks from Rounds 21-25

Again, these picks were made before the Towns trade happened, but sometimes it makes sense to simply draft the most talented player and hope that he gets a bigger role at some point. Case in point with this late McBride pick. And Collier makes a lot of sense in this draft-and-stash format. He has the potential to really blow up after the All-Star break.

Eric’s final roster

Guards: Anthony Edwards, Derrick White, Coby White, Jalen Green, RJ Barrett, TJ McConnell, Payton Pritchard, Christian Braun, Scotty Pippen Jr., Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Aaron Wiggins, Lonzo Ball

Forwards: Scottie Barnes, Jaylen Brown, Deni Avdija, Aaron Nesmith, Corey Kispert, Cam Whitmore

Centers: Bam Adebayo (F/C), Mark Williams, Onyeka Okongwu, Kelly Olynyk (F/C), Jalen Smith (F/C), Chris Boucher (F/C)

Stan’s final roster

Guards: James Harden, Dejounte Murray, Cam Thomas, Austin Reaves, Mike Conley, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, Delon Wright, Luke Kennard, Malik Beasley, Jose Alvarado, Max Christie

Forwards: Pascal Siakam, Franz Wagner, Patrick Williams, Kelly Oubre Jr., Jaden McDaniels, Caleb Martin, Harrison Barnes, Dorian Finney-Smith, Trey Lyles

Centers: Anthony Davis (F/C), Ivica Zubac, Donovan Clingan, Naz Reid


Who do you consider to be the top 3 teams? (It’s okay to include your own!)

Eric: My pick to win this league is Team 2, which was drafted by my buddy Eric Jenike. I think his core group is reliable and feel like his team has a lot of upside, but he wasn’t reaching for young players, which is what many fantasy managers tend to do when drafting for upside.

In the battle for second place, I see it coming down to Team 1 (it’s certainly a nice advantage getting Wemby), Team 6 (a rock solid drafting job from Stan, over his first 10 rounds at least), and mine, Team 10 (I’ll be praying for some positive updates on Okongwu and Williams, or else I’ll be in trouble).

Stan: Team 3, 11 and mine.

What do you all think? Will Team Wong or Team Son finish higher in the standings? Drop you questions, comments and predictions into the comments below!

(Top photo of Anthony Edwards, Anthony Davis: Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)

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