Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2024-25: Sleepers, breakouts and busts from proven NBA model

Spurs center Victor Wembanyama is coming off a historic rookie season where he averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.6 blocks and 1.2 steals over 71 games. He’d go on to win Olympic silver with France this offseason and now he’ll look to take the next step as the league’s brightest young star this offseason. With 2024 Fantasy basketball draft season approaching rapidly, Wembanyama has a 2024 Fantasy basketball ADP of 2.0 and will likely be in consideration along with Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic to be the first pick in upcoming drafts.

So which of the three offers the most upside for the 2024-25 NBA season, and how can you ensure that you’re getting maximum value out of every Fantasy basketball pick? A reliable set of live-updated 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings can help you make tough calls and also identify potential 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers, breakouts and busts. Before making any 2024-25 Fantasy basketball picks, be sure to check out the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proven model simulates each season 10,0000 times. This model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. These cheat sheets and rankings, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day. Any time an injury occurs or there’s a change on a roster, the team at SportsLine updates its cheat sheets.

Last year the model called Thunder G/F Josh Giddey a bust, predicting that he would never live up to his sixth-round ADP. The result: Giddey had his minutes reduced significantly with Oklahoma City’s roster improving and saw corresponding drops in points (16.6 to 12.3), rebounds (7.9 to 6.4) assists (6.2 to 4.8) and steals (0.8 to 0.6). The Thunder ultimately decided to trade him to the Bulls for Alex Caruso this offseason and Fantasy basketball managers who avoided the headache last season were better off for it.

The model also nailed DeMar DeRozan as a sleeper in 2021-22 before he averaged a career-best 27.9 points per game and called Paolo Banchero’s and Victor Wembanyama’s breakout seasons before they went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year honors the last two seasons. Anyone who followed the model’s Fantasy basketball advice on them was well on their way to making a deep postseason run.

Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NBA season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy basketball rankings 2024-25, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see these 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings. 

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers 

One of the top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers the model is predicting: Suns guard Bradley Beal. The three-time All-Star was traded from Washington to Phoenix last offseason and his numbers ultimately suffered as he went from a No. 1 scoring option with the Wizards to No. 3 behind Kevin Durant and Devin Booker with the Suns. However, his efficiency numbers were actually better than ever.

Beal shot a career-high 51.3% from the floor and 43.0% from the 3-point line over 53 games and he shot 53.8% from the floor and 52.0% from beyond the arc after the all-star break. He’s healthier than he’s been in years entering the 2024-25 season and that’s a big reason why the model ranks him ahead of younger players like Immanuel Quickley and Jalen Green who are being drafted at least two rounds earlier on average. See more Fantasy basketball sleepers 2024 here.

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts 

One of the 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts the model has identified: Spurs guard Stephon Castle. A top-10 recruit in the Class of 2023, Castle signed with Connecticut coming off a national championship victory the following season and became a central figure in Dan Hurley’s repeat effort. He averaged 11.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists in 34 games and the Huskies went 37-3 to become the first back-to-back national champions since Florida in 2005 and 2006. 

The Spurs selected Castle with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft and now he’ll look to form a dynamic duo with Wembanyama. The model ranks Castle as its No. 62 guard but he’s been the 87th player off the board at the position on average in early 2024 Fantasy basketball drafts. Identify other Fantasy basketball breakouts 2024 here.

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts

As for players to avoid, the model lists Lakers guard Austin Reaves as one of its top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts. Undrafted out of Oklahoma, Reaves earned a spot on the Lakers’ roster in 2021-22 and has seen his role steadily expanded over the years. Last year, he averaged 15.9 points, 5.5 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game while shooting 48.6% from the floor and 36.7% from the 3-point line.

However, the Lakers drafted Tennessee wing Dalton Knecht No. 17 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft and the similarities in their respective games might make it difficult for the two to share the floor. Both are defensive liabilities, so Reaves might be in for fewer minutes in 2024-25, which is why the model ranks him outside its top 50 guards despite the fact that he’s been the 33rd guard selected on average. Avoid these 2024 Fantasy basketball busts as well.

How to find proven 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings

SportsLine is also has a shocking prediction for one of the league’s biggest names and advises avoiding him in 2024 Fantasy basketball drafts at his current ADP. This bust fails to live up to his first-round ADP, ranking behind players available in the third round or later like Damian Lillard and James Harden. You can only see who it is, and the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings for every player, at SportsLine.

So which 2024-25 Fantasy basketball sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which huge name should you avoid? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024-25 Fantasy basketball cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that’s nailed its Fantasy basketball picks, and find out.

Consensus Top 100 Fantasy Basketball ADP 2024-25

1. Nikola Jokic (DEN – C)
2. Victor Wembanyama (SAS – C,PF)
3. Luka Doncic (DAL – PG,SG)
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL – PF,C)
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC – PG,SG)
6. Jayson Tatum (BOS – SF,PF)
7. Tyrese Haliburton (IND – PG,SG)
8. Joel Embiid (PHI – C)
9. Anthony Edwards (MIN – SG,SF)
10. Anthony Davis (LAL – PF,C)
11. Stephen Curry (GSW – PG,SG)
12. Domantas Sabonis (SAC – PF,C)
13. Trae Young (ATL – PG)
14. Devin Booker (PHO – PG,SF,SG)
15. LeBron James (LAL – PF,SF)
16. Kevin Durant (PHO – SF,PF)
17. Donovan Mitchell (CLE – PG,SG)
18. Jalen Brunson (NYK – PG,SG)
19. Scottie Barnes (TOR – PF,SF,SG)
20. Chet Holmgren (OKC – C,PF)
21. Kyrie Irving (DAL – PG,SG)
22. De’Aaron Fox (SAC – PG)
23. Alperen Sengun (HOU – C)
24. Damian Lillard (MIL – PG)
25. Ja Morant (MEM – PG)
26. Dejounte Murray (NOR – PG,SG)
27. Tyrese Maxey (PHI – PG,SG)
28. Paolo Banchero (ORL – PF,SF)
29. LaMelo Ball (CHA – PG,SG)
30. Bam Adebayo (MIA – C)
31. James Harden (LAC – PG,SG)
32. Kawhi Leonard (LAC – PF,SF,SG)
33. Paul George (PHI – SF,PF,SG)
34. Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN – C,PF)
35. Lauri Markkanen (UTH – PF,SF)
36. Jaylen Brown (BOS – SG,SF)
37. Desmond Bane (MEM – SF,SG)
38. Evan Mobley (CLE – C,PF)
39. Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM – PF,C)
40. Cade Cunningham (DET – PG,SG)
41. DeMar DeRozan (SAC – PF,SF,SG)
42. Pascal Siakam (IND – C,PF,SF)
43. Jalen Williams (OKC – PF,SF,SG)
44. Nikola Vucevic (CHI – C,PF)
45. Jamal Murray (DEN – PG,SG)
46. Zion Williamson (NOR – C,PF)
47. Franz Wagner (ORL – PF,SF,SG)
48. Mikal Bridges (NYK – PF,SF,SG)
49. Jimmy Butler (MIA – PF,SF)
50. Rudy Gobert (MIN – C)
51. Derrick White (BOS – PG,SG)
52. Brandon Ingram (NOR – PF,SF,SG)
53. Myles Turner (IND – C)
54. Jarrett Allen (CLE – C)
55. Deandre Ayton (POR – C)
56. Fred VanVleet (HOU – PG)
57. Darius Garland (CLE – PG)
58. Jalen Green (HOU – PG,SG)
59. Nic Claxton (BKN – C,PF)
60. Josh Giddey (CHI – PG,SF,SG)
61. Zach LaVine (CHI – SG,SF)
62. Julius Randle (NYK – PF)
63. Keegan Murray (SAC – PF,SF)
64. Immanuel Quickley (TOR – PG,SG)
65. Kristaps Porzingis (BOS – PF,C) OUT
66. Brandon Miller (CHA – SF,SG)
67. Austin Reaves (LAL – PG,SF,SG)
68. Miles Bridges (CHA – SF,PF)
69. D’Angelo Russell (LAL – PG,SG)
70. Jalen Duren (DET – C)
71. CJ McCollum (NOR – PG,SG)
72. Devin Vassell (SAS – SG,SF)
73. Kyle Kuzma (WAS – SF,PF)
74. Michael Porter Jr. (DEN – PF,SF)
75. Tobias Harris (DET – SF,PF)
76. Jrue Holiday (BOS – PG,SG)
77. Tyler Herro (MIA – PG,SG)
78. Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU – C,PF)
79. Cam Thomas (BKN – SG)
80. Jalen Johnson (ATL – PF,SF)
81. Brook Lopez (MIL – C)
82. Bradley Beal (PHO – PG,SG)
83. Jusuf Nurkic (PHO – C)
84. Jonathan Kuminga (GSW – PF)
85. Jonas Valanciunas (WAS – C)
86. Coby White (CHI – PG,SG)
87. Jordan Poole (WAS – PG,SG)
88. Walker Kessler (UTH – C)
89. Jakob Poeltl (TOR – C)
90. RJ Barrett (TOR – PF,SF,SG)
91. Anfernee Simons (POR – PG,SG)
92. Mark Williams (CHA – C)
93. Clint Capela (ATL – C)
94. Khris Middleton (MIL – SF,SG)
95. Terry Rozier (MIA – PG,SG)
96. OG Anunoby (NYK – PF,SF)
97. Klay Thompson (DAL – SG,SF)
98. Tyus Jones (PHO – PG)
99. Chris Paul (SAS – PG)
100. John Collins (UTH – C,PF)