Those who have followed my work for any period of time are probably fully aware that I’m fearless when it comes to my fantasy football convictions. There is no take too bold to proclaim … as long as there is a rational, logical thought process (usually data-driven) that led me to come to that conclusion.
I am human, however … and wrong occasionally, no matter how fiercelessly I will deny ever admitting that to my wife.
Here are six players I’m most terrified to be wrong about in 2024.
There’s been no shortage of absurdly lofty praise for the Commanders’ No. 2 pick out of LSU — especially from me. Jayden Daniels lit the NCAA on fire in 2023, totaling 3,812 passing yards, 40 touchdowns and 4 INTs paired with another 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.
In short, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner was absolutely unstoppable.
Though his transition to the NFL may not be as smooth as the one we’re projecting for Caleb Williams given the playmakers (or lack thereof) around him, but his rushing upside will provide fantasy football managers an extremely high ceiling regardless of his floor as a passer.
I have aggressively ranked him as my QB7 in comparison to his expert consensus ranking of QB11, even going as far as to say that a finish ahead of Anthony Richardson wouldn’t be beyond the realm of possibility.
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There might not be a player I’ve faded more aggressively at his second-round ADP this offseason than De’Von Achane. Despite having absolutely dominated in a limited role as a rookie with just under 1,000 scrimmage yards and 11 TDs on a minute 130 touches, there are some legitimate concerns that fantasy managers could be in for a stressful season investing such an early pick in the second-year RB.
My concerns are as follows:
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Will Achane see enough volume? Veteran RB Raheem Mostert is back this year, who tied for the league lead in touchdowns last year and was utilized as the team’s primary starter. The Dolphins also added fourth-round rookie Jaylen Wright who had an excellent preseason (and for whom they traded a future third-round pick). Given the potential for an ugly three-headed committee and durability concerns that popped up for Achane as a rookie, it wouldn’t be surprising
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Does he receive any goal-line work? At 5-foot-9 and 183 pounds, Achane is the smallest back in the room; Mostert is 5-foot-10, 205 pounds, while Wright stands 5-foot-10 and 209 pounds. The most valuable touches in the offense probably won’t belong to him.
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Is regression in store? Achane is the only running back in NFL history to average more than 7.0 yards per carry with 100+ rush attempts in a single season. Since 2015, he’s one of just three running backs to average greater than 6.0 yards per carry with 100+ rush attempts (Alvin Kamara in 2017, J.K. Dobbins in 2020). Kamara saw significant regression in his YPA average down from 6.1 to 4.6 the following season, while Dobbins saw his average drop from 6.0 yards per attempt to 5.7, though notably played just eight games that year.
If we can’t project steady volume for Achane and he regresses to a more sustainable level of efficiency, a second-round ADP just doesn’t feel like great value.
The biggest issue with fading Achane this year is that it feels as though I’ll be very, very correct … or very, very, very, very wrong, and there might not be much room in between. I’d feel much better about buying into Achane if he fell to the fourth round or so.
I’ve been a believer of Zack Moss dating back to his days at Utah, but to say his collegiate production hasn’t translated to the NFL would be a gross understatement. However, the Cincinnati Bengals opted to give him an opportunity to prove his worth this offseason, signing him to a two-year, $8 million contract as they sent Joe Mixon to the Houston Texans via trade.
Though Moss’ production tapered off in the second half of the season, he had a strong start to the year filling in for then-injured Jonathan Taylor. In Weeks 2-5, Moss averaged just over 20 fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues, finishing as a top-five RB in two of those four weeks and a top-10 RB in three of the four. He totaled 517 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns as the lead back in those outings — some promising production and a clear sign of what this bruiser is capable of when given a full workload.
Moss will share the Bengals backfield with second-year RB Chase Brown, who plenty of others are backing in the competition for carries thanks to his enticing combination of size (5-foot-9, 210 pounds) and explosive play-making ability. However excited fans may be about Brown, Moss outpaced him in many efficiency metrics last season, including missed forced tackle rate (19%), yards per carry (4.3), first-down/touchdown rate (23.5%) and stuff rate (18.6%) per PFF.
I’m projecting this backfield as something close to a 50/50 split, but the fact that Brown saw just seven of the team’s 67 total RB carries in the red zone and not a single carry inside the five has me feeling confident that the goal-line work belongs to Moss, which would make him the more valuable of the two assets for fantasy.
If Moss doesn’t find relevancy this year, however, it’s time that I swallow my pride and quietly mourn what could have been.
Full disclosure — I am a Pittsburgh Steelers fan. However, I am a pretty pessimistic Steelers fan, so I like to believe that allows me to leave any pre-conceived biases on the table when it comes to analyzing their offense.
This year, I’ve been all in on former second-round pick George Pickens as one of the best values in fantasy drafts, staunchly convinced he’s primed for a monster third-year breakout. That prediction is not just due to his immense talent; it’s thanks to a new opportunity as the team’s WR1 on an offense that should provide more scoring opportunities than it has during his first two years in the league.
Pickens managed a WR26 finish in half-PPR leagues in 2023 — one spot ahead of where he’s being drafted in Yahoo leagues right now as the WR27 off the board. That end-of-season finish came despite being the No. 2 target (6.24 targets per game) behind Diontae Johnson (6.69) on an offense quarterbacked by a combination of Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph. Between the clear upgrade at quarterback with Russell Wilson and an improved playcaller in OC Arthur Smith, the sky is the limit for Pickens in Year 3.
Despite a propensity for coming down with flashy, jaw-dropping catches, FSU product Keon Coleman was not one of my favorites in this draft class. He earned a 39.6% college dominator rating (81st percentile) and had a breakout age of 19.3 (82nd percentile) per PlayerProfiler, which are both indicators of potential at the next level. He’s got great size at 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds, and he’s quite young at the age of 21. However, his inability to create separation was a big concern for me in the pre-draft process.
Connected to one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Josh Allen, with all of the opportunity in the world to earn targets following the offseason departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the path to a significant role in the offense is clear. However good the situation is, however, I keep going back to those pre-draft concerns; is he a refined enough product to make an impact in Year 1? I have my doubts, but if I’m wrong, I could be missing out on a very high-upside asset in 2024 fantasy leagues.
Usually, it’s not considered a spicy take to fade any soon-to-be 35-year-old skill position player for fantasy, but when that player is Travis Kelce, all bets are off — especially considering his Round 3 price tag in Yahoo fantasy drafts. The concern for Kelce living up to this high value is an easy one to understand. He’s getting older. The team made a concerted effort to upgrade their receiving corps this offseason with the additions of rookie Xavier Worthy and FA signing Hollywood Brown, and it looks like second-year WR Rashee Rice might be in the clear in terms of receiving a suspension this year.
Kelce dealt with knee and ankle injuries last season and saw a decrease in his offensive snap percentage for the fifth consecutive season, with his 77% snap rate being the second lowest of his career and the lowest since he was a rookie. He posted a career-low 10.6 yards per reception and had fewer than eight receiving touchdowns for just the second time since 2017. I fear that as the Chiefs seek the first three-peat in NFL history, Kelce’s usage could be meticulously calculated to keep him at 100% for a postseason run, which wouldn’t be a plus thing for fantasy managers given how highly he’s being drafted right now.
