Week 14 was a mediocre one for your loyal sleeper page. The Tennessee passing game did little and the tight ends fizzled out — Will Dissly getting hurt didn’t help. On the plus side, Adam Thielen was not a difficult pick but he came through, and Sincere McCormick was solid. Let’s see if we can build on things in Week 15.
With the fantasy playoffs here and all 32 NFL teams in play, I’ll throw out a standard caveat — I hope your team is loaded with heavily rostered players who essentially start themselves. I hope you’re playing a lot of hits this week, not looking too hard for overlooked options. That said, leagues vary by size and depth, and I know in some of those larger pools, the picks are more challenging.
RB Sincere McCormick vs. Falcons (35%)
The more I see of McCormick, the more I like. He hits the hole quickly and usually gets what’s blocked plus some additional yardage. His success rate on runs is a superb 62.5%, which is why head coach Antonio Pierce went out of his way to praise McCormick this week. And with the Raiders a small underdog against Atlanta, I am not worried about game script pushing McCormick out of the game plan. This could be the week he challenges for 100 yards.
RB Isaiah Davis at Jaguars (17%)
For this pick to qualify, Breece Hall needs to be out for another week. Track the news closely on that. Without Hall last Sunday, the Jets split the backfield work evenly between Braelon Allen and Davis — and Davis showed more burst. Credit the Jets for finding two value backs in the 2024 draft. Now the assignment is cushy, a date with a Jacksonville defense that’s allowed the second-most points to opposing running backs. Davis has a fair chance to push into double-digit touches again, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he outplayed Allen.
QB Jameis Winston vs. Chiefs (34%)
I know the Chiefs are sailing along merrily at 12-1, but don’t fear this matchup or this defense. Kansas City has actually allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. And Winston has a way of exceeding expectations — he’s scored more points than his fantasy projection in 5-of-6 starts. Sure, there will be some mistakes, at least one pick, a few loose throws. But the Browns will probably chuck the ball 40 or more times — they often need to junk their sluggish running game — and Winston has talented receivers to work with, even if tight end David Njoku isn’t available.
TE Zach Ertz at Saints (49%)
A few weeks ago I wondered if the 34-year-old Ertz could maintain his fantasy usefulness through a full season, a musing that looks silly now. After all, he’s on a three-game touchdown streak, settling in as the second-most important target in the Washington passing game. And with Noah Brown out of the picture, Ertz might see an expanded target share. Given that Ertz stands as the TE10 for the season, I’m stunned his roster tag is in such a reasonable spot. But some of you can swoop in and take advantage of his availability.
TE Hunter Henry at Cardinals (44%)
Let’s start with some cold water — the Cardinals have defended tight ends well this year and Henry doesn’t offer much goal-line equity; he’s stuck on one touchdown for the season. But he’s often the first read for impressive rookie QB Drake Maye, absorbing 26 targets the past three games and turning that into a credible 18-170-0 line. I’ll be considering Henry as a deeper-league flex option for some of my leagues with 14 managers and up.
WR Elijah Moore vs. Chiefs (21%)
There’s been hit-and-miss to Moore’s game — he smashed at Denver and New Orleans but didn’t make quota against Pittsburgh on two occasions. But Moore will likely be needed here, with Njoku banged up and Cedric Tillman a question mark. It also helps with the Kansas City defense on the docket — the Chiefs often struggle with seam coverage, which encourages opponents to focus on tight ends and slot receivers. I’m picturing eight or more targets for Moore on game day, and a very playable WR3 or flex return for those deeper pools.
TE Stone Smartt vs. Buccaneers (1%)
As we mentioned in the opener, Dissly injured his shoulder in the loss to Kansas City. It opened the door for Smartt, and he immediately produced — three catches, 54 yards. It’s a fun story, as Smartt was a quarterback for most of his itinerant college career, and opened the season as the No. 4 tight end on the team’s depth chart. This pick gets a little extra juice if star rookie WR Ladd McConkey is scratched or limited on game day. Tampa Bay has struggled with seam coverage all year, too.
