We’re coming off our second straight week of nailing seven of the top 10 defenses in fantasy football. Perhaps it’s just luck or perhaps the tweaks to the BOD Formula by adding in the PFF Pass Rush Production rate and Forced Incompletion Rate are helping the formula to be a bit more accurate. Combine that with starting to get a sense of the true talent level of all these teams and maybe we’re settling into a groove (of course, I just jinxed it).
We had mid-week bumps for the Saints and Eagles due to some injury news for their opponents, so make sure you check back here as the week goes on, and we’ve continued to have success with the Packers despite the overall consensus rankings not buying into them as a top unit. That’s hopefully going to carry over in Week 7 because the BOD formula adjusted for weekly matchups has a few good defenses in bad matchups still ranked high, so we have a real decision point of trusting the defense or going for worse defenses in better matchups. I’ve always tended to lean towards trusting the floor of a good defense, but this week will put that to the test.
On Sunday, we also saw the Giants and Lions continue to assert themselves as defenses we need to be taking seriously, but the Lions also will have to deal with the devastating loss of Aidan Hutchinson, who fractured his fibula. It’s hard to say exactly how much we should ding them for losing the favorite for NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and those are the manual calculations that could sway a few of these rankings until we get a big enough sample size.
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As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 6: 7-3
SEASON-LONG: 33-27 (55%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 2) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 7?
The Broncos are now my number-one defense overall in my BOD Rankings. They rank 1st in PFF’s Pass Rush Production grade, 2nd in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, 4th in opponent scoring rate, and 6th in turnover rate. That’s a pretty solid overall defense and now they get a Saints team that will be without David Carr and also likely Chris Olave, who suffered a concussion in Week 6, and Rashid Shaheed, who has a knee injury. The Saints have other strong pieces on offense, but they give up the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season even including games with a fully healthy offense, so they’re still a top 10 matchup for my top overall defense. That makes me feel pretty confident about the Broncos defense this weekend.
The Bills defense has struggled with injuries and poor tackling this season, but they got both Taron Johnson and Terrel Bernard back and each of them made some huge plays against the Jets last night. Ed Oliver should hopefully return to the lineup in Week 7, so even though they’ll still be without Matt Milano and Von Miller, they have enough firepower on defense to put up a strong showing against a Titans team that gives up the most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses at 12.2 points per game. Sean McDermott runs a confusing defensive scheme that Bill Belichick broke down really well a couple of weeks ago, and I believe that scheme is going to be difficult for Will Levis to handle.
We know the Steelers are a top tier defense. We know the Jets want to run the football. On that alone, we can sense a solid floor game from the Steelers defense with the Jets not likely to put up a huge point total. The Jets offensive line has also struggled throughout much of the year and Aaron Rodgers is clearly unable to move much in the pocket, which could be a bit of an issue against T.J. Watt. The Jets have surprisingly given up the 13th-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, and when you pair that with a Steelers defense that ranks 7th in turnover rate, this could be a solid week for the Steelers defense.
The Chargers are my 4th-ranked defense on the season and should hopefully be getting Joey Bosa back this week, which would make me feel a little better about them. They’ll still be without Asante Samuel Jr., which is a bit of a problem against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ offense. However, Marvin Harrison Jr. suffered a concussion on Sunday, so I don’t expect him to suit up against the Chargers, and that’s going to take a lot of big play potential away from this Cardinals offense that gives up the 16th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Chargers currently rank 2nd in opponent scoring rate, 9th in turnover rate, and 15th in pass rush production grade, so I think they’re a solid defense overall in a matchup that’s not as bad as we might think.
The Packers continue to get the job done regardless of who they play, but they are in for another stiff test this weekend. The Texans give up the 20th-most fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses on the season, but we also know they’ll be without Nico Collins this weekend (and for two more weeks after that). That’s notable against a Packers defense that leads the NFL in turnover rate, is 6th in opponent scoring rate, and 11th in sacks. They don’t make a lot of plays in the backfield, ranking just 24th in Pass Rush Production Rate and 30th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game. That makes me a bit hesitant to play them against the Texans, but I have to trust my BOD formula and the past results right now.
I really like both the Vikings and Lions’ defenses, so it’s hard to bench either of them, but it’s also hard to get overly excited about these matchups. The Lions give up the 3rd-fewest points to opposing defenses; however, the Vikings give up the 16th-most points to opposing defenses, so they’re a pretty middle-of-the-pack matchup. I think the Vikings defense is the better unit to begin with, but then you add in the fact that the Lions lost both Aidan Hutchinson and Kyle Peko for the season, and it makes me even less confident in the Lions for this week. It’s hard to know exactly what those injuries will do to the Lions’ performance on defense, but you have to lose some confidence in their ability to handle an offense like Minnesota’s, who should get Aaron Jones back. This is a rivalry game with a lot on the line, so I think both teams will come out swinging and the BOD formula is telling you to trust the past production, but I can understand if you’re hesitant.
The Saints defense didn’t show up against the Bucs last week, but they get an easier test this week against the Broncos. However, it might not be as good a matchup as we think since Denver gives up the 15th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, making them a pretty average matchup. A lot of that has to do with how run-heavy they are to prevent Bo Nix from being forced into making mistakes, but the rookie looked brutal yesterday when the game was in question. Some garbage time stats made his day look better, but he should struggle against a defense that ranks 5th in turnover rate, 6th in forced incompletion rate, and 7th in explosive play rate allowed.
This Giants defense has been really solid so far this season. They rank 1st in the NFL in sacks, 6th in pass rush production grade, and 12th in opponent’s scoring rate. Yes, they’re without Kayvon Thibodeaux, but they still have Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns wreaking havoc on offensive lines. Meanwhile, the Eagles give up the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, which makes this a pretty solid matchup. However, we need to factor in that the Eagles have A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back, so this may not be as good of a matchup as the numbers indicate. Still, the Giants handled a good Bengals offense this past week, and I expect them to be able to put together a similar performance against an Eagles team that barely beat the Browns.
I like both the 49ers and Chiefs defenses, but I don’t love these matchups. The 49ers give up the 14th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, and the Chiefs, despite all their injuries, give up the 11th-fewest points to opposing fantasy defenses. That means neither offense is a total stay-away matchup, but they’re certainly not matchups we target; however, with these defenses, I can see rolling them out there in deeper formats. The 49ers are 1st in forced incompletion rate, 8th in pass rush production grade, and 10th in turnover rate so I think this defense brings enough to the table to be a fringe top-10 unit this week.
The Dolphins give up the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so the Colts should be a solid play, but they also let us down last week against a Titans team that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses even with Kwity Paye and Kenny Moore back, so I’m having trouble trusting them. The Dolphins will also be coming off a bye week, which means De’Von Achane should be back, so I don’t love the matchup as much as the numbers. On the other hand, the Colts give up the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. This Dolphins defense isn’t good, and the Colts should get Jonathan Taylor back this week, so I’d rather not play either of these defenses, but I think the Colts give you a safer floor.
This Jets defense remains in play as a solid floor option even though the Steelers give up the 9th-fewest points to opposing defenses because they try to go run-heavy and limit Justin Fields from making too many mistakes. I know the Jets defense hasn’t played up to their potential for much of the season so far and a big component of that has been injuries on the defensive line that have taken some of the bite out of the pass rush. Still, we know the talent this defense has and if some of the injuries they had in the secondary last night don’t prove to be serious, I feel OK trusting them in deeper formats considering the Steelers lost their center Zach Frazier to an ankle injury on Sunday, which means they’re without three of their starting lineman. That could be a problem against the Jets.
The Raiders are a mess right now and give up the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, so I’m willing to play the Rams here in deeper formats. I don’t expect Davante Adams to play and Jakobi Meyers is dealing with an injury of his own, which takes a lot of weapons away from Aidan O’Connell, who is also worse than Gardner Minshew. None of that inspires me, but the Rams have been bad enough on defense that I’m not rushing to play them in most formats. If Meyers misses this week as well than I might bump the Rams up ahead of the Colts and Jets.
The same can be said of the Bengals’ defense, which has been pretty bad this season, ranking 17th in turnover rate, 21st in opponent scoring rate, and 29th in pass rush production grade. However, they got defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins and B.J. Hill back last week and it made the interior of this defense look much better. I still have some concerns overall, but we know the Bengals are well-coached, and the Browns give up the 5th-most fantasy to opposing defenses, so I can see playing the Bengals in deeper formats.
This Eagles defense isn’t good right now. They scored just five points last week against a bad Browns offense, so even though the Giants give up the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, I just can’t get excited about playing the Eagles here. You’d also have to think that the Giants will get Malik Nabers back for this one, which should add another layer to an offense that seems to have found something with Tyrone Tracey Jr. If the Giants can use Devin Singletary and Tracey and also have Nabers coming back, I just don’t see a high ceiling game here for the Eagles.
People will want to play the Commanders because they see Carolina on the schedule, but the Panthers give up the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so it’s a fairly average matchup. The Commanders do have a solid pass rush, ranking 9th in pass rush production, but they’re 24th in turnover rate, 31st in opponent’s scoring rate, and dead last in explosive play rate allowed. It’s just not a great defense in a fine but not great matchup.
The Ravens are the only defense here you might be tempted to play, but I just wouldn’t do it. They haven’t been a great fantasy unit so far this season, and this Bucs offense has been humming.
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
