It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
McCaffrey continues to test his fantasy managers’ patience, as he would be just the RB29 in 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game (10.9) on the season. Last week can be blamed on a San Francisco offense missing Brock Purdy and Trent Williams, but CMC’s numbers are down across the board over three games since returning. He’s getting a career-low 3.5 YPC and his fewest YPT since 2020. McCaffrey likely isn’t the same player while returning from bilateral Achilles tendinitis, but the 49ers offense has also struggled at times since losing Brandon Aiyuk.
However, McCaffrey’s usage remains elite — he had a 93% snap share and saw all 15 RB opportunities before the final two drives of San Francisco’s blowout loss last week. The 49ers may be reeling in the win/loss column, but their offense has gotten the second-most yards per play (6.3) this season despite last week’s ugly performance with a backup QB and LT. San Francisco has the second-best yardage-differential in the NFL. The 49ers rank bottom five in red zone TD percentage (50.0%) after ranking first (68.0%) last season, so scoring regression should be coming.
Given CMC’s role in this offense, even a lesser version can easily be a top-five fantasy back down the stretch — but we need a healthy Purdy for that to happen.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Few coaches love a player more than Sean McVay does Williams, but the running back has fumbled four times (losing two) over the last four games. Williams has an NFL-high five fumbles (among non-QBs), and he lost two during one of L.A.’s final games last season. Williams is getting just 4.0 YPC and hasn’t seen one target over the last two games. It’s possible he’s wearing down given the incredibly high usage (third-most RB snaps) and his size.
That said, Williams saw a 90% snap share and 16-of-17 RB opportunities after coughing up the ball in last week’s game. Another fumble or two could quickly change things, but his workhorse role appears intact for now. Matthew Stafford is averaging 287.5 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp this season, so the Rams offense is one of the best in the league when healthy. Moreover, Williams’ schedule has been the league’s 10th toughest up until now, but he gets the third easiest moving forward.
Williams could still have a big fantasy finish, but fantasy managers will be constantly worried he fumbles again.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud is the QB26 in fantasy points per game, just ahead of the recently released (and now new Viking) Daniel Jones. Stroud has just two weekly top-five QB finishes during his career, with both coming last season. He ranks 24th in EPA/dropback and 32nd in completion percentage over expectation. He’s also been the most pressured QB in the league. Stroud has taken a step back as a sophomore, and he’s the latest example of the risk of drafting a quarterback high in fantasy who doesn’t run.
However, there is some hope now that Nico Collins is back fully healthy. Stroud has averaged just 197.2 passing yards and 1.0 TD passes without Collins on the field this season, but he’s averaged 269.9 and 1.3 with him on it. Houston also sees a significant boost in pass rate (61.7%) and PROE (+7.1%) with Collins on the field compared to when off (53.0%, -2.2%). Stroud would still be just the QB19 (15.8 fpg) during games with Collins, but it’s worth noting the duo had two long touchdown connections (totaling 110 yards) nullified by shaky penalties over the last two weeks.
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Stefon Diggs isn’t returning, but Tank Dell could be more explosive the further he’s removed from leg surgery (like Tony Pollard last year). Moreover, the Texans’ QB schedule is the eighth-most favorable in the league moving forward, including a prime matchup this week. Stroud should start putting up better stats down the stretch, but he’s been one of this season’s biggest fantasy busts.
Kyler Murray & Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Murray’s up-and-down season continued with a dud last week, when Arizona scored just six points in a matchup with one of the week’s highest projected totals. But Seattle’s defense has been playing far better recently, as the Seahawks rank fourth in EPA/play allowed since trading for Ernest Jones. Moreover, Michael Wilson caught a touchdown that was called back by a penalty, while Marvin Harrison Jr. couldn’t get a second foot down in the end zone on the next play. Murray’s had the league’s hardest QB schedule up until now, but he gets an average one moving forward.
Murray has been a top-five QB the same number of weeks (four) this season as he’s been bottom-10, so expect more inconsistent play down the stretch.
Harrison Jr. hasn’t seen more than seven targets in a game since Week 3 and didn’t experience a rookie bump coming out of Arizona’s bye last week. No wide receiver in the top 60 is averaging fewer fantasy points per game if you removed touchdowns.
This isn’t all Harrison Jr.’s fault, as his role in Arizona’s offense has been a major hurdle to production. But the rookie wideout also ranks #84 in ESPN’s Open Score and #55 in Average Separation Score. MHJ has fewer catches (36) this year than Jalen Tolbert, Will Dissly, Javonte Williams, Ray-Ray McCloud and Zach Ertz, among many others. Harrison Jr. has a teammate who led the league in first-read target rate (58.8%!) last week, and Arizona sports one of the lowest pass rates over expectation (-6.0%).
Rookie wide receivers typically perform better late in the season, and the Cardinals’ WR schedule goes from the third toughest up until now to the sixth easiest moving forward. Still — Harrison Jr. is on track to be one of this year’s biggest fantasy busts.
