Ahead of the fantasy football playoffs, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers.
Riser: Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Jennings continued his strong play in Week 11. He once again led the 49ers with 11 targets and totaled 10 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. Jennings has now played three games without either Deebo Samuel Sr. or Brandon Aiyuk this season and in these contests, he averages 11.3 targets and 116 yards per game. He’s now earned at least a 33% target share in back-to-back games and has operated as the clear No. 1 receiver ahead of Samuel in the 49ers’ offense.
Jennings is earning targets in key situations. In Week 11, he earned six targets on third down, and over the past two weeks, he’s seen 42% of his targets on third or fourth down. These are the money downs in the NFL where you go to your most trusted player and, lately, that’s been Jennings for Brock Purdy. Jennings is skyrocketing up the rest-of-season fantasy rankings. Right now, he’s a top-15 receiver for me, just behind DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin but ahead of Zay Flowers and Davante Adams.
If you were able to acquire Jennings over the past few weeks, congrats — you have a league winner on your hands.
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Faller: D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
Swift had a solid fantasy day in Week 11. He earned 16 touches and turned this usage into 84 total yards and a touchdown. This was the sixth time in his last seven games that Swift topped at least 80 total yards and scored at least 11 fantasy points. All of this is great on the surface, but Swift’s underlying usage took a hit in Week 11.
The Bears had a new play caller this past Sunday in Thomas Brown. Any time a new playcaller takes over, there’s likely going to be a change in the way the offense is run and this usually means a change in player roles. This was the case for the Chicago backfield in Week 11. Backup Roschon Johnson played a season-high 44% of the snaps and earned 11 touches. Johnson handled two of three goal-line carries and played on 100% of the two-minute offense snaps. This led to Swift earning just 48% of the team’s rush attempts according to Fantasy Life, his lowest total since Week 3. Despite the strong fantasy day, Swift is a fantasy faller in the rankings due to his diminished role in Week 11.
Riser: Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Unlike Swift, Odunze was one of the players on the Bears who benefitted from new play-caller Thomas Brown on Sunday. Odunze ran 90% of Chicago’s routes in Week 11 and turned this usage into a season-high 32% target share. It was the fifth time this season that a Bears receiver was able to earn at least 30% of the team’s targets and the second time Odunze was able to cross this threshold of elite volume. Odunze turned this usage into six catches for 65 yards, and he was relied on twice on the Bears’ final drive in key situations, including a 21-yard catch on fourth down to extend the drive and set up the potential game-winning field goal.
Not only was Odunze’s target volume good to see under his new playcaller, but he was also used in encouraging ways. Odunze was six of his 10 targets in the short areas of the field. Four of his targets were downfield and he connected on two of these for 37 yards. Odunze also accounted for a team-high 53% of the air yards in Week 11. This balance of short and deep targets is good to see. It creates a level of consistency in his play each week.
This was only a one-game sample with Brown calling plays, so we can’t just assume Week 11 will be Odunze’s usage going forward, but it’s surely a step in the right direction.
Faller: Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Andrews had his best usage of the season in Week 10. According to Player Profiler, he ran a season-high 85% of the Ravens routes. This was the first time he was above 55% since Week 2. Andrews turned this usage into a season-high seven targets and posted 15.8 fantasy points. He was heading into Week 11 with top-12 weekly finishes at the position in four of his last five games.
But there was a key reason for Andrews’ increase in Week 10 usage. TE Isaiah Likely was out for Baltimore, which led to season-high usage for Andrews. However, Likely returned to the Ravens lineup in Week 11, and this crushed Andrews’ usage. Andrews ran just 58% of the team’s routes, and he saw just three targets. Likely went back to his usual role, running over 50% of the team’s routes with just enough involvement to cap Andrews’ upside. The Week 11 usage with Likely back makes Andrews a touchdown-or-bust player moving forward; he’s no longer a must-start like he was in Week 10 without Likely.
Riser: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Smith-Njigba had a career day in Week 9 before the Seahawks’ bye week, producing 180 yards and two touchdowns on a whopping 13 targets. He finished the week as the highest-scoring fantasy player across all positions for the first time in his career. We saw Smith-Njigba operate often downfield in this game, too, which hasn’t been a common role for him in the Seahawks offense. DK Metcalf was out in Week 10, however, so this likely had something to do with the change in Smith-Njigba’s usage.
But in Week 11, Metcalf returned to the lineup and Smith-Njigba maintained a strong role. He led the team with 11 targets and 110 receiving yards. His downfield role reduced some with Metcalf back, but not completely. On his first target of the game, Smith-Njigba connected with Geno Smith for a 20-yard reception over the middle of the field. He would go on to earn two deep targets in this game.
In general, Smith-Njigba seems to be getting schemed into the offense more, especially as the first read. Smith-Njigba was the first read target on 30% of the Seahawks’ plays in Week 11, his second-highest in a game with Metcalf active this season. The second-year receiver is trending up as the fantasy playoffs approach.
