Welcome to the Fantasy Football Trade Desk. As a former English teacher and a current sportswriter, I have no finance background whatsoever, but I did watch Industry every week on HBO Max and have talked to a few of my friends in finance so I’m now basically an expert at stock trades.
Each week in this column I’ll guide you through some of my recommendations on which players we should be looking to target in fantasy football trades, which players we should be testing the waters on, and which players we should be holding onto. We’ll try to go beyond just the box score and evaluate role, usage, and matchups in a way that can help us identify the perfect time to move on from a well-performing player or take a risk on an underperforming one.
As a quick overall citation, all of my data for routes, target share, and other advanced metrics comes from Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report over at Fantasy Life, so make sure you go check that out.
At the end of the day, we have one goal: to maximize the value of our players and get the best weekly returns on our fantasy lineup. Some of the calls may be risky. Some may be easy, but I’ll try to give you a wide range and a sense of value to help you navigate trade scenarios in your league. This leads to the final reminder that this is a trade column, so I won’t be discussing guys who are predominantly on waiver wires, but you can check out our awesome waiver wire articles for all of those potential names.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Buy The Dip
As many of us know, “Buying the Dip” is when an investor buys an asset after its price has fallen in a way they believe to be temporary. That allows us to profit when the price rebounds, so all players listed here are players who I believe suffered a value dip in Week 1 that I feel confident will rebound in the coming weeks.
CeeDee Lamb – WR, Dallas Cowboys
Cooper Rush looked terrible in Week 10. There is no way to sugarcoat that. Things seem to be falling apart for the Cowboys, and it’s possible that CeeDee Lamb managers are looking to trade him for somebody with a more stable floor given that Lamb had just 5.4 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring this week and 12.2 points last week when Dak got hurt. However, Lamb also had a 33% target share in Week 10, it just happened to be on a lot of shallow routes. As Dwain McFarland pointed out in the Utilization report, since 2022, Lamb has averaged 20.7 points per game with Dak under center and 15.8 points without Dak. That still makes Lamb a fringe WR1, and he gets a favorable schedule the rest of the way. If the manager with Lamb is panicking in your league and you can get him for fair value of a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 then it could be a gamble worth taking.
That being said, if you have Lamb and can get a locked-in WR1 for him then I’d be OK with trading Lamb away.
Mike Evans – WR, Tampa Bay Bucs
This is all about where you are in the standings. The Bucs are on a bye in Week 11 and Mike Evans has missed the last three games with a knee injury; however, there is a chance he will return in Week 12 and will face the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders in his first three games back. If the fantasy manager who has Mike Evans needs a win right now, they might be willing to move him for a wide receiver in a good matchup in Week 11. If you are looking good for the playoffs, perhaps you can downgrade your starting lineup for one week, help your opponent get a much-needed win this week, and then reap the benefits of Evans for the rest of the season. That is a bit of a league-specific situation, but it’s worth looking into in your leagues.
Taysom Hill – TE, New Orleans Saints
I know Taysom Hill didn’t produce like we thought he would with Chris Olave out, but he ran a route on 63% of dropbacks this Sunday, which is easily his season-high. Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who had a huge game, ran a route on 67% of dropbacks, and that led all the wide receivers. Basically, Hill is running routes as much as any receiver in New Orleans and targets have historically gone his way. They didn’t in Week 10, but they easily could next week. It’s not as if MVS is a target hog. Hill had five carries in Week 9 and four in Week 10, and since he continues to be used around the goal line, it gives him even more value. Yes, he might get hurt at any time, but if you need some short-term production, Hill could be an easy TE1 so maybe you can help his fantasy manager with a bye-week fill-in at RB or WR to get Hill on your team.
Malik Nabers – WR, New York Giants
This is more about my conviction that Nabers is still a WR1 despite recent struggles. People hate Daniel Jones and they hate the Giants offense, so that tends to stain any Giants player for fantasy. Plus, Nabers has averaged only 12 points per game over the last month, so his managers may not be happy with what they’re getting from him. Add to that that the Giants are now on a bye, and you may have people more willing to trade him now than they’ve ever been. However, Nabers has a 34% target share and 45% of the team’s air yards over that poor last month, so the utilization is great and the schedule coming up is tasty. Perhaps a move to gun-slinging Drew Lock will unlock Nabers like the move to Jameis Winston helped the Browns pass catchers. I’d be willing to take a gamble on Nabers if you can upgrade from a fringier WR1 or a high-end WR2 to get him.
Buy High, Sell Higher
At the beginning of this article, I talked about how our goal is to maximize the value we get out of the players on our team. Sometimes that means buying low, as we discussed above, and sometimes it means buying at a perceived high point on a player with questionable long-term value. If we believe there is some validity to the spike in value, we can acquire a player in a deal, try to reap the rewards of his good performances, and then still sell before the risk comes through but just sell at a higher price. This is different than just “buying high” because these players will have some risk and likely be ones you want to try and trade away later, so it’s a delicate balancing act.
Jauan Jennings – WR, San Francisco 49ers
I had Jennings on here last week under “Buy a Call” because I figured you might be able to get a low-cost share with him coming off an injury. Now that I’ve seen his role in this healthy 49ers offense, I think you should still try and get him because there’s even more value here than his box score suggests. Jennings scored 13 points in half-PPR formats, but he led the 49ers receivers with a 95% route participation rate, 25% target share, and 34% of the team’s air yards (34%). He has averaged a 32% target share in games without Brandon Aiyuk, and that type of usage in this offense puts him on the low-end WR2 radar.
George Pickens – WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
This is about Pickens’ production with Russell Wilson under center but also about his schedule coming up. According to Fantasy Life’s rest-of-season schedule ranking, the Steelers have the fifth-best schedule for wide receivers including two games each against Baltimore and Cleveland, which are two strong matchups, and another matchup against a mediocre Bengals secondary. With Wilson under center, Pickens has an average depth of target of 16.6 and averages almost two end zone targets a game, those are huge upgrades from his role with Justin Fields under center. The Steelers do want to run the football, so Pickens likely won’t see huge volume, but he looks like a locked-in WR2 from here on out.
Calvin Ridley – WR, Tennessee Titans
I had Calvin Ridley as a sell a few weeks ago, and I was wrong. Without DeAndre Hopkins, Ridley has averaged a 36% target share and while not all of those targets are efficient, most of them are deep shots down the field, so he doesn’t need to hit on many of them to have big fantasy days. He’s going to be inconsistent, but he’s fifth amongst all receivers with an average of 16.8 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring over the last three weeks. That has value if you can stomach the reality that he may score just three points when you need a big game.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
Buy a Call
When we buy a call on somebody, we are essentially buying the option on a player we think might hit big in the future. In finance (as I’ve learned from research) this means the buyer isn’t locked into purchasing the stock but has the option to do so at a lower price – a strike price – if they choose to do so in the future. For us, this means players who we want to add to our roster now in a small trade because we believe there’s a chance they are going to hit big for us later. We don’t want to pay a lot, but we want them around for the option to use them if it all breaks right.
Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen, WR – Chicago Bears
This is all about the Bears firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. According to Fantasy Life’s rest-of-season schedule ranking, the Bears get the fourth most favorable WR schedule the rest of the way including two games against a really giving Vikings secondary. We have no idea what the Bears offense will look like going forward, but it’s highly unlikely for the scheme to shift drastically in the middle of the season. DJ Moore has the highest route participation rate at 98% and is tied with Keenan Allen with a 25% target share, so they seem like the safest bets since they’ll be on the field the most. However, Odunze has the highest depth-of-target at 15.1 yards, so if the offense is able to scheme up more big plays then he could provide sneaky fantasy value.
Run a Process
If you’re going to Run a Process on a player, then we’re going to explore a potential sale while not being locked into selling. This is essentially for players who we think will still perform at a solid clip this season but not at the rate that they currently are or not at the same rate that their current value suggests they will.
Kareem Hunt – RB, Kansas City Chiefs
I had Hunt on here in this same category a few weeks ago because I mentioned that Isiah Pacheco could return in November and that Hunt was also getting the vast majority of his fantasy value from touchdowns. Over the last three weeks, Hunt has averaged a solid 14 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring which has him as a mid-range RB2. However, the Chiefs have designated Pacheco for return from the IR, so his return to the field is imminent. That might make it hard to trade Hunt away now, but it’s worth exploring in case a fantasy manager in your league needs immediate production due to injuries or bye weeks and doesn’t care that Hunt will be in a committee in two or three weeks. If you can’t get fair value then don’t trade him, but now is the time to explore.
Brian Thomas Jr. – WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Thomas Jr. is a very good receiver, but he has two big issues working against him. Number one is that he’s playing through an injury and very likely is not 100%. The other is that the Jaguars could easily shut Trevor Lawrence down due to his shoulder injury, and that means BTJ would have to catch passes from Mac Jones all season. In Week 10, BTJ ran a route on 93% of dropbacks and had just a 14% target share. That’s not what you want to see. Yes, we love that Thomas is running so many routes, so we’re not cutting him or giving him away for nothing, but the target share has not been great over the last three weeks and catching passes from Mac Jones would make Thomas more of a boom-or-bust WR3 type.
Tony Pollard – RB, Tennessee Titans
We thought that Pollard might be the clear bell-cow in Tennessee, but Tyjae Spears returned to the lineup and returned to almost an equal workload. In Week 10, Spears handled 39% of the rushes while playing on 47% of the snaps and running a route on 42% of dropbacks. He also played all of the long-down-and-distance snaps, which means that Pollard might not see the field nearly as much when the Titans are down and passing. I think the Titans will be down and passing quite a bit in their remaining games, so I’m at least going to explore what I can get for Pollard now in case there is a fantasy manager in your league who is still willing to buy into his earlier production.
DeVonta Smith – WR, Philadelphia Eagles
I would also be exploring trading away DeVonta Smith. He’s averaging just over 11 points per game when A.J. Brown is healthy this year, and another concern for me is that the Eagles are becoming very run-heavy with Saquon Barkley in town. Philadelphia is averaging just under 200 passing yards per game and Smith has just a 20% target share so that target share in an offense that doesn’t throw the ball a lot makes him a riskier fantasy option than we’d like. I’m treating Smith as more of a high-end WR3 in fantasy leagues, so if you can upgrade to a solid WR2 type of player, I’d take that gamble. I’d also like to trade Smith away for a guy like Amari Cooper or Mike Evans if I was in a good spot for the playoffs because I think both of those guys will be key assets in the final weeks.
