Going into this week I mentioned that there was no clear standout defensive option according to my rankings, so I’m not surprised that we got some wild top-10 defenses like the Colts, Titans, Cardinals, and Jaguars. Still, even with that, we did manage to hit on five of the top 10, so it wasn’t too bad of a week.
Since we’re now a little over halfway, I’ve made a big change to my weekly rankings. Instead of using season-long stats for opponent’s scoring rate, turnover rate, pass rush productivity grade, etc., I’ve started to use stats from just the last six weeks. This is something I’ll continue to do as the season goes on in hopes of identifying the true current-level production of the defense and not being overly influenced by strong weeks that happened months ago.
The change has hurt defenses like the Bills and Packers who started the season strong and have been less fantasy-relevant of late but helped teams like the Eagles and Rams who have been on fire defensively since a poor start to the season. As a result, you may seem some BOD rankings that look weird to you, but just remember that we’re now focused on the last month-and-a-half when it comes to that.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 9: 5-5
SEASON-LONG: 50-40 (55.6%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 2) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 10?
The Chargers defense put up a huge day against the Browns last week, scoring 18 fantasy points, and now they get an even friendlier matchup against a Titans offense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Over the last six weeks, the Chargers rank 1st in opponents scoring rate, 7th in turnover rate, and 9th in forced incompletion rate. They’re just 17th in pass rush productivity, which has been a slight ding to their performance, but you can’t be mad about a team averaging 10 fantasy points per game over the last month. Whether the Titans have Mason Rudolph or Will Levis under center this weekend doesn’t really matter to me. I’m firing up the Chargers with supreme confidence.
Despite some key injuries, the Lions just continue to produce. They’ve averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game over the last month and now face a Texans offense that allows the 16th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses thanks to some injuries on offense and a truly poor offensive line. That bad offensive line could be a real issue against a Lions defense that, over the last six weeks, ranks 10th in pass rush productivity. The Lions also rank 1st in turnover rate and 3rd in opponent’s scoring rate over the last six weeks, so I still feel good about throwing them out against the Texans. If we do get Nico Collins back this week, which is likely, I might move them below the Eagles in Tier Two, but I can’t see moving them lower than that, especially now that they’ve added Za’Darius Smith into the fold.
The Bears defense didn’t look great against the Cardinals last week and benefited from some poor plays by Kyler Murray. The Bears are also averaging just 6.3 fantasy points per game over the last month, so they have taken a bit of a step back but, over the last six weeks, they rank 5th in turnover rate, 6th in pass rush productivity, and 16th in opponent’s scoring rate. I do think the Patriots should be able to put up some points with Drake Maye at quarterback, but in Maye’s three full games this season, fantasy defenses averaged 10.7 points per game, and those three defenses were the Texans, Jaguars, and Titans. This is still an offense that will give up double-digit points to fantasy defenses, and so I’m happy to use the Bears this week.
The Eagles’ defense has turned things around of late, and now they get a struggling Cowboys offense that will also be without Dak Prescott and potentially even CeeDeee Lamb. Over the last six weeks, the Eagles rank 2nd in opponent’s scoring rate, 3rd in forced incompletion rate, and 12th in pass rush productivity. They still don’t force many turnovers, ranking just 23rd in turnover rate over that span, but they might be able to secure a few with Cooper Rush slinging passes for the Cowboys. If we know for sure that CeeDee Lamb will also miss this game, I’d likely move to Eagles up into tier one.
The Rams’ defense has been tremendous of late, averaging 15 points per game over the last month. Now, that’s not sustainable, obviously, but they have seen an uptick in production thanks to a revamped defensive line and some elite pressure. Over the last six weeks, they rank 2nd in pass rush productivity, 8th in turnover rate, and 13th in opponent’s scoring rate. Obviously, the Dolphins with Tua under center are a different beast, but I assumed the Dolphins were the 8th-hardest matchup for fantasy defenses and this is still where the Rams were ranked this week. That’s how good their defense has been playing. I guess this week will be a test to see if they can keep it up.
Last week, we mentioned that the Vikings might no longer be the elite defense we thought they were to start the season, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t still a strong defense. They use scheme confusion to get the most out of their talent, and that was on full display against the Colts. Over the last six weeks, the Vikings rank 2nd in turnover rate, 6th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 15th in pass rush productivity. That has led to just 7.7 fantasy points per game over the last month, but I expect a strong performance here against a Jaguars team that allows the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses and has already traded away their starting left tackle.
I know the Bucs looked solid on Monday night against the Chiefs, but this 49ers defense is another animal and coming off a bye week. I think we’re going to see the loss of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin rear its ugly head a bit more this weekend. Over the last six weeks, the 49ers rank 4th in turnover rate, 5th in pass rush productivity, and 13th in opponent’s scoring rate. With the Bucs coming off a short week as well, I think the 49ers are going to put up a strong performance here.
At this point, we know the Chiefs are a better real-life defense than fantasy defense. Over the last six weeks, they rank 8th in opponent’s scoring rate and 9th in pass rush productivity but 17th in turnover rate. That has led to six fantasy points per game over their last three weeks. So you have a slightly above-average fantasy defense against an exactly average offense that allows the 15th-most fantasy points per game to opposing defense, and I think you’re going to get the Chiefs’ typical 6-8 fantasy points here. It’s not exciting, but it’s not going to hurt you.
This is mainly about the matchup. The Giants defense got off to a strong start to the season, but they’ve leveled out a bit of late. Over the last six weeks, they rank 8th in pass rush productivity, 19th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 31st in turnover rate. I do think their pass rush should be able to make things difficult for Bryce Young, who actually made some decent throws on Sunday against an injured Saints secondary. I know the Panthers won that game, but I expect the Giants to put up a little more of a fight; I’m just not sure they’re an elite play while traveling to Germany to play this game.
The Commanders have been a surprisingly good defense even if they let us down this past week. They rank 3rd in pass rush productivity over the last six weeks, 4th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 13th in turnover rate. Over the last month, they’re averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game, which includes their four-point dud on Sunday, so they’ve been a solid unit. They now face a Pittsburgh offense that allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game, so I don’t love the matchup, but I can see the Commanders being a safe “floor” play this weekend.
Yes, the Bills are 7-2, and, yes, their defense has seemingly made some big plays this season, but when I adjusted for just the last six weeks, the Bills fell to 18th in opponent’s scoring rate and 10th in turnover rate. They’re also 29th in pass rush productivity grade over that span and lost two defensive linemen to the IR with wrist injuries which has continued to make them vulnerable on the ground. I don’t love that with a matchup against Jonathan Taylor coming up.
The Broncos, Steelers, and Texans are three of my top 10 defenses on the year so far which means they’re all on the radar in deeper leagues, but all of them get brutal matchups this week. Washington gives up the second-fewest points to opposing fantasy defenses. The Lions give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, and the Chiefs give up the sixth-fewest. It’s hard to feel excited about playing any of these defenses given those conditions.
I understand the desire to want to play the Falcons against a Saints team that will likely be without Chris Olave, but we have to keep in mind that this Falcons defense has not been good. Even in a good matchup against the Cowboys where both Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb got hurt during the game, the Falcons’ defense scored three fantasy points. In calculating my rankings for this week, I assumed the Saints would be the fourth-best matchup for an opposing defense and this is as high as I could get the Falcons.
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
