It’s time we readdress a question that we’ve been asking all season long: what should we do with the Dolphins’ offense?
This week, however, we look at the question from a more positive outlook. When Tua Tagovailoa was out, the entire offense was unusable. When Tua returned, De’Von Achane was the only reliable option. Now, in Week 12, the entire Dolphins offense finally looked like a cohesive and coherent unit poised for the fantasy upside we’d hoped for heading into the season.
Is it too little too late though?
Heading into the season, the Dolphins late-season schedule was a major concern for me:
-
Week 13 @ Green Bay Packers
-
Week 14 Vs. New York Jets
-
Week 15 @ Houston Texans
-
Week 16 Vs. San Francisco 49ers
-
Week 17 @ Cleveland Browns
It was a daunting schedule … in theory. However, moving forward, it now looks intriguing.
Green Bay had a known issue in defending the run but they’ve held up fairly well, almost dead center in average points to opposing running backs. They’ve been stout against opposing quarterbacks, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the 10th fewest to receivers. Oddly enough, Green Bay might be the most difficult matchup for Tagovailoa.
The Jets defense has been reeling and is vulnerable to all positions since the firing of Robert Saleh. The Texans can’t seem to pick a lane and decide if they are good or bad on defense. The 49ers have been hit with a wave of injuries. The Browns are in a tailspin and their only advantage is playing in Cleveland.
With this new perspective of the rest-of-season schedule in mind, and finally seeing a strong overall offensive performance, let’s talk about what we can expect from our key Dolphins’ fantasy assets moving forward — and who we can trust.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
As with any NFL offense, it all starts and ends at quarterback. Heading into the week, Tua Tagovailoa was coming off his best performance of the season with 23.5 fantasy points and three touchdowns — both season highs. He capitalized on that momentum, delivering an even better performance with over 300 passing yards, four touchdowns and 28.5 fantasy points, making him the overall QB3 of the week (prior to the primetime games).
Pulse check: Can we truly trust that Tua is back on track?
While I do have some cold-weather concerns for Tagovailoa, particularly in a night game at Green Bay, and Cleveland during championship week, his rest-of-season outlook remains strong. The Week 17 matchup against Cleveland is likely a no-go due to weather concerns, but the Dolphins are fighting for their playoff lives and keeping their foot on the gas. Despite some season-long struggles from the receiving corps, Tagovailoa has one of the league’s most prolific groups of pass-catchers, including his running backs and tight end. He has QB1 upside through Week 16.
De’Von Achane, RB
Speaking of prolific pass catchers, the most consistent and reliable option through the air has been De’Von Achane. Often, we see strong receiving backs become PPR cheat codes through massive reception totals, but that’s not the case with Achane. I don’t have the updated Week 12 stats yet, but heading into the week, Achane ranked third in red zone targets among running backs and first in red zone touchdowns. Narrowing it down further, inside the 5-yard line, Achane led all running backs in targets. Those numbers should only improve after Achane caught two red zone touchdowns today.
Pulse check: Is Achane’s receiving upside enough to overcome the lack of production on the ground?
In an ideal world, we want the reliability of a back with strong work on the ground, but 100 yards on the ground truly isn’t necessary for Achane to reach his ceiling on a weekly basis. His rest-of-season schedule is running back-friendly and his work on the ground is adequate but will continue to be carried by his work through the air. The aforementioned red zone stats for Achane include the weeks without Tua. With Tua, Achane has been an absolute machine. He’s matchup-proof and should be considered a weekly top-5 play.
Tyreek Hill, WR
For all the brilliance Achane has shown since Tagovailoa’s return, we’ve seen only a modest improvement in production from Tyreek Hill. From Weeks 3 through 7 without Tagovailoa, Hill averaged just 5.9 fantasy points per game. Since Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8, Hill has averaged 10.6 fantasy points. It’s an improvement, but it’s far from what we’ve come to expect.
Some level of volatility is understandable, but we’re not even getting that. Hill’s best performance since Tagovailoa’s return came in Week 11 against Las Vegas, when he scored 15.6 fantasy points in half-PPR to finish as WR16. Essentially, we’re stuck with a middling floor and only the hope of WR2 upside.
Pulse check: What on earth are we doing with Hill?
Because it’s Tyreek Hill, we can’t stop playing him. His talent is undeniable and a lingering hand injury could be impacting his performance. However, he’s now firmly in WR2 territory, and quite frankly his ranking there is sustained purely by name value. The upside exists in theory, but theory needs to translate into actual production.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
Waddle has been the opposite of Hill. While Hill has provided at least some level of a floor — albeit a low one — Waddle’s floor has been a basement, making him completely unstartable. After scoring 11 fantasy points in Week 1, Waddle failed to exceed five fantasy points for nine straight games. It didn’t matter who was at quarterback or what the matchup was; he simply couldn’t produce. Just when you were ready to give up, though, he delivered a massive boom game with 24 fantasy points in half-PPR this week. Waddle caught 8 of 9 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown, easily his best game of the season, even including games before Tagovailoa’s injury.
Pulse check: Is Waddle back on the table or was this a random blip in the football universe?
This performance is encouraging, but it’s hard to trust it as the new norm for Waddle. We’re cautiously optimistic, but the reality remains: Waddle has shown zero floor all season. We can’t look to matchups to predict if Waddle will repeat because good matchups hadn’t yielded any positive results prior to this week. I’d like to see a low-end WR2 performance next week before declaring Waddle rehabilitated. Proceed with caution.
Jonnu Smith, TE
I wrote about Smith in last week’s Make or Break column, highlighting the increased consistency in his targets and touchdowns as the key to his double-digit fantasy performances. This week, he delivered his second-best performance of the year, catching nine of 11 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. Smith has now exceeded 19 fantasy points in each of the past two games and has become one of Tua’s most reliable targets.
Pulse check: With two fantastic performances in a row, is Smith a weekly top-five option?
Smith’s increased usage isn’t surprising. The Dolphins have struggled to find a tight end who fits Mike McDaniel’s system, and Smith seemed like the perfect one. He has truly ascended into the weapon we’ve been hoping for.
With two solid weeks in a row, my confidence in Smith is growing. The schedule ahead is less favorable for tight ends, with San Francisco, the Jets and Houston all ranking in the top 10 for fewest fantasy points allowed to the position. However, given the volume Smith is seeing, he remains a clear top 10 weekly option.
