Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Set your Week 12 lineups with Dalton Del Don’s key start/sit advice for every game on the slate.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers

Sit: Chuba Hubbard

Hubbard has been one of fantasy’s best draft picks this season, but he gets the league’s toughest run defense this week. The Chiefs have allowed the league’s fewest touches (20.9), rushing yards (52.2) and fantasy points (12.8) to running backs. No RB has reached 60 rushing yards against Kansas City this season. Rookie Jonathon Brooks is set to make his NFL debut Sunday and will take away some touches, and the Panthers have a league-low 16.5-point implied team total. Hubbard admittedly may be needed this week with six byes, but expectations need to be tempered.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Sit: Sam Darnold

Darnold posted an 8.4 YPA with a 12:5 TD:INT ratio over his first six games this season, but he has a 7.5 YPA with a 5:5 ratio over four games since LT Christian Darrisaw went down. Darnold has had a favorable schedule over the last month, but he gets a tough, slow-paced matchup outdoors in Chicago this week. The Bears are a run-funnel defense allowing the seventh-most EPA/rush but the second-fewest EPA/pass. Chicago has yielded the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and an NFL-low seven passing scores this season.

Start Rome Odunze, who leads Chicago in target share (23%), catches (17), yards (233), yards per route run (1.77) and 1D/RR over four games since its bye. He gets a pass-funnel Vikings’ defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs but the third-most to WRs.

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Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Start: Calvin Ridley

Ridley’s fantasy day would’ve looked a lot better last week had his 51-yard touchdown not been negated by an illegal formation penalty. He’s finished top three in air yards in back-to-back weeks since Will Levis returned. In fact, Ridley leads the league in air yards, and he’s been fantasy’s WR8 over four games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. Ridley should continue to see good volume this week against a Houston defense that’s stout against the run but ceding the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts

Start: Jared Goff

Goff has 19 touchdown passes over the last eight games, and his 9.2 YPA leads the NFL. If you’re into coverage schemes (h/t TruMedia), it may be worth noting that Goff has especially shredded man coverage this season, leading the NFL in YPA (11.9) and Passer Rating (154.3). All eight of Goff’s interceptions have come against zone coverage, which the Colts have used at the league’s second-highest rate (79.6%).

Still, Goff has remained plenty productive against zone as well, getting 8.9 YPA with the third-most TD passes (nine). Goff gets a fast-paced matchup indoors, and the Lions have a league-high 30.5-point implied team total, so he should remain in fantasy lineups.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Sit: Jaylen Waddle

Waddle is seemingly due for a breakout game any week now, but he’s averaged just 3.3 catches, 51.3 receiving yards and 0.2 TDs over six games with Tua Tagovailoa this season. He’d be fantasy’s WR49 for the season over that span (7.9 fantasy points per game). Waddle ranks 65th in fantasy points per route run this year.

The Dolphins have a healthy projected total (27.5 points), and Christian Gonzalez figures to shadow Tyreek Hill. However, Waddle has a lowly 16.2% air yards share, a 0.14 TPRR and a 0.28 XFP/RR versus man coverage this season, which New England has used at the league’s third highest rate (40.6%). The Patriots are also one of the few teams that didn’t utilize two-high heavily against the Dolphins last season, and Waddle has seen a -25.7% FP/RR reduction versus single-high since last season.

This might be a monster week for Hill.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants

Start: Bucky Irving & Rachaad White

Mike Evans is set to return this week but expect White and Irving to lead Tampa Bay’s offense. Since Week 6, Irving has been fantasy’s RB23 (points per game), and White has been the RB8. The Buccaneers are six-point home favorites (with a 24.5-point implied team total) coming out of their bye against a Giants franchise starting Tommy DeVito for financial reasons, so game script should be favorable. New York has been gashed for the league’s highest EPA/rush over the last month, and the Giants have allowed the most schedule-adjusted rushing fantasy points to RBs over the last five games. They’ve ceded an NFL-high 5.3 YPC this season.

There’s some concern Sean Tucker also gets more involved, but he’s been a complete afterthought since his big game in Week 6. Both Irving and White can be started with confidence this week.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders

Start: Brian Robinson Jr.

Robinson saw 17 opportunities during his return last week, including a goal-line score. He ranks top 10 in rushing TDs (seven) this season despite missing three games thanks to heavy red zone work. Robinson is off the injury report this week, so hopefully he’s closer to 100%. The Cowboys have been gashed for NFL-highs in EPA/rush and rushing touchdowns while allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs.

Washington has this week’s second highest implied team total (28.5 points) and are double-digit home favorites against a reeling Cowboys team, so game-script should be highly favorable. Robinson has averaged 5.5 YPC at home this season and is a strong fantasy start this week.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Start: Bo Nix

Nix ranks fourth in fantasy points per game and third in catchable throw rate since Week 5. He’s the QB4 in expected fantasy points on the season, and Nix barely threw downfield earlier in the year. Moreover, the Broncos suddenly ran motion during 60% of their dropbacks last week after entering last in motion usage; Nix went 17-of-19 for 230 yards (12.1 YPA) with a 4:0 TD:INT ratio during those plays. He gets a matchup indoors this week against a Raiders’ defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to QBs and dealing with multiple injuries in their secondary. Nate Hobbs, Jack Jones and Jakorian Bennett haven’t practiced through Thursday this week, so Las Vegas may be down three starting corners.

Nix looks like a top-five fantasy QB once again this week.

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

Start: Jauan Jennings

Jennings has averaged 119.7 receiving yards and 29.3 FPG over three games without either Brandon AIyuk or Deebo Samuel Sr.; both marks would lead the NFL this season. His 42% first-read target rate over that span would rank second in the league this year. Jennings has averaged more fantasy points per route run than Justin Jefferson this season, and he ranks top five in 1D/RR. We are getting the 2023 version of Aiyuk from Jennings, who’s replaced BA in San Francisco’s “X” role.

Green Bay will be missing corner Jaire Alexander, and Samuel Sr. simply hasn’t looked the same while recovering from pneumonia. Brock Purdy’s status needs to be monitored as he’s dealing with a sore shoulder, but Jennings looks like a weekly top-15 WR if his QB’s health cooperates.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Start: Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison Jr. started to finally run more crossing routes before Arizona’s bye, and hopefully, MHJ gets the proverbial rookie bump coming out of it. Harrison Jr. ranks seventh in air yards share (41.1%) and eighth in end-zone targets — tied with Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb.

Harrison Jr. has faced the league’s fifth-toughest WR schedule up until now (his QB has faced the toughest), but the rookie wideout gets the fourth easiest moving forward. Harrison Jr. has produced the second-most fantasy points per route run against press this season, which Seattle has used at the league’s fifth-highest rate. The Seahawks have also allowed the fifth-most fantasy points over expected to WRs this season.

Kyler Murray got 9.1 YPA over his last three games before Arizona’s bye against three top pass defenses, so the Cardinals’ offense has upside. Harrison Jr. is a top 15 WR in this fast-paced matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams

Sit: Matthew Stafford

Stafford has averaged 296.4 passing yards, 2.2 TDs and 19.0 fantasy points (~QB7) in games with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua this season; he’s averaged 215.0 passing yards, 0.4 TDs and 8.9 fantasy points (~QB40) without them (h/t FTN). And Nacua was ejected from one of those games early. Stafford is also due for further touchdown regression, as he leads the league in end-zone targets (33) but is tied for just 12th in TD passes.

That said, fantasy managers should at least explore alternatives this week with the Rams facing an Eagles’ defense that’s allowed a 2:5 TD:INT ratio since Week 4. A league-low 18.7% of the passing plays against Philadelphia have gained 10+ yards over that span. The Eagles have allowed just one wide receiver (Ja’Marr Chase) to rank higher than the WR40 in weekly scoring since Week 4. Philadelphia has ceded an NFL-low 19.3 yards per drive over the last two months.

A shootout is possible here, but Stafford is up against the league’s hottest defense.

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sit: J.K. Dobbins

Gus Edwards has taken 30% of the rush attempts since returning, while Hassan Haskins has stolen 46% of the attempts inside the five-yard line. Dobbins will retain fantasy value with a still healthy role in a good offense, but he’s averaged just 3.7 YPC since Week 2 and gets a difficult matchup Monday night. The Ravens have allowed the second-fewest RB rushing yards per game (61.1) and an NFL low 3.4 YPC this season. Baltimore has been vulnerable to receiving backs, but Dobbins has averaged just 2.0 targets this month. Fantasy managers may be unable to sit Dobbins with so many byes this week, but his expectations should be lowered.

Start Quentin Johnston, who led Chargers’ WRs in snap share (81%) and had career highs in targets (eight) and air yards (165) last week. He’s been a busted coverage merchant at times, but Johnston also has the fourth-most receiving touchdowns (six) among all pass catchers this season. Ravens’ opponents have averaged by far the most pass attempts (39.5) this year, so Johnston is a top-25 WR this week.