We enter the fantasy playoffs coming off another solid week where we landed six out of 10 of the top defenses. It was also another week with few teams putting up huge point totals as only four defenses scored in double digits, and the Seahawks and Vikings finished as top 10 defenses with just seven points.
We did have six teams on bye, so we might not want to read into it too much, but it’s a solid reminder as the fantasy playoffs approach that good defenses who can
provide a safe floor point total of around six or seven points can often be more valuable than trying to chase the trendy streamers on waivers. People were excited to play the Dolphins against the Jets or the Cardinals against the Seahawks and neither team scored more than three points. However, the Saints hit against the Giants and the Bucs delivered against the Raiders, so streaming defenses remains a crapshoot that could cost you in the playoffs.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 14: 6-4
SEASON-LONG: 77-63 (55%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 1.5) + TACKLES FOR A LOSS/NO GAIN PER GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EXPECTED POINTS ADDED RATE ALLOWED PER GAME + OPPONENT SCORING RATE)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 15?
The Eagles come into Week 15 as the top option in part because they’ve been such a strong defense over the last two months. Over that span, they are my top-ranked defense in BOD, ranking 1st in opponent’s scoring rate, 2nd in pass rush productivity rate, 4th in explosive play rate allowed, and 6th in turnover rate. They’ve averaged 8.5 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks and now get a Steelers offense that is a league-average matchup, allowing the 16th-most fantasy points per game over the last month. The Steelers should get George Pickens back for this one. Still, most of the elite fantasy defenses are in mediocre or bad matchups this week, so you’re looking at the Eagles in an average matchup or defenses that have performed far worse than the Eagles but happen to have good matchups.
The Commanders’ defense hasn’t been great of late, averaging 4.6 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. However, they are coming off a bye and should get Marshon Lattimore on the field for a full complement of snaps, which is great news. They will also be facing a Saints offense that just lost Derek Carr to an injury, which means they won’t have Carr, Taysom Hill, Chris Olave, or Rashid Shaheed. I know that hasn’t impacted the Saints much so far, but that will have to come back and bite them at some point. I feel good about the Commanders’ ability to hold Jake Haener in check, and so I’m happy to roll out Washington this week.
Man, this Ravens defense has continued to be mediocre this season. Over the last two months, they rank 19th in pass rush productivity rate, 22nd in opponent’s scoring rate, and 24th in turnover rate; however, they do rank 4th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game and 10th in EPA per play allowed per game, which means teams aren’t hitting on big plays even if they’re preventing the Ravens defense from making splash plays. I’m not sure this Giants offense is capable of doing either of those things right now. Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito have both looked bad at quarterback, the offensive line is having trouble blocking anybody, and the Giants are struggling to hold onto the ball. If there’s a week for the Ravens defense to look like their old selves, it’s this one.
It’s hard to know what to make of the Vikings. They never seem to deliver the big fantasy performances that they did at the start of the season; yet, they are still averaging nine fantasy points over the last six weeks, so they continue to showcase a high floor. Their pass rush has fallen off of late, but they rank 5th in turnover rate, 6th in EPA rate allowed per game, and 12th in opponent’s scoring rate over the last six weeks. They will now get a Bears offense that had seemed to be trending in the right direction before really dropping the ball against the 49ers on Sunday. There is talent in Chicago, but the Bears have given up the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month and the Vikings have scored fewer than seven points just twice all season, so maybe they are pretty safe after all.
The Broncos are coming off a bye and facing a Colts team in a game that could go a long way toward clinching a playoff spot for the Broncos. Anthony Richardson is a dynamic athlete and can make big plays, so the Colts give up the 12th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses when he’s under center, but he has also yet to showcase the ability to consistently make easy throws. I think Vance Joseph will have a solid gameplan to take away Richardson’s legs, and if the Broncos force Richardson to throw, he’s going to hit on a few big throws but likely also make a few bad mistakes, so I’m willing to take that gamble on a Broncos defense that has done a really good job of limiting big plays all season.
The Cardinals’ defense had been trending in the right direction but gave us nothing against the Seahawks last weekend. That’s mildly concerning considering the Seahawks have given up plenty of sacks and turnovers over the last two months and actually rank as a better matchup for fantasy defenses than the Patriots. Still, the Patriots have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so they’re a matchup we want to target. Over the last six weeks, the Cardinals rank 8th in pass rush productivity and 13th in EPA rate allowed per game. That has led to 8.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, which makes the Cardinals feel like a safe enough bet to crack the top 10 against the Patriots.
The Steelers are a really good defense in a bad matchup, and there just comes a point where you can’t rank them much lower. Over the last two months, the Steelers rank 1st in turnover rate, 6th in opponent’s scoring rate, 9th in pass rush productivity rate, and 11th in explosive play rate allowed. The Eagles are a bad matchup, but they also rank 11th in scoring rate and 31st in passing yards per game, so they want to grind out wins on the ground, which is likely going to lead to a lower-scoring game that could give the Steelers defense a safer floor.
I don’t like this Bengals defense, but it’s hard to hate this matchup against a Titans offense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season and the 3rd-most over the last month. Will Levis also seemed to suffer an injury to his throwing arm on Sunday and even though he came back into the game, he didn’t really push the ball down the field as much as we’re used to seeing. There is very little to like about the Bengals defense, but they’ve averaged five fantasy points per game over the last month, so it’s not crazy to think they could put up something close to eight against the Titans.
I’ve learned my lesson with the Chiefs’ defense and have come to terms with the fact that they’re a good real-life defense and a mediocre fantasy unit at best. They rank 17th in pass rush productivity rate, 19th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 23rd in turnover rate over the last two months and are averaging just 3.3 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. Normally, I’d be fading them completely, but they’re playing Jameis Winston and the Browns, who allow the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last four weeks, so the Chiefs could finally find themselves in a matchup where they can get back into the top 10 of fantasy defenses.
The Texans have averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks and rank 2nd in turnover rate, 9th in opponent’s scoring rate and 11th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game over the last two months. They’ll be coming off of a bye and could potentially be getting stud safety Jalen Pitre back, which is crucial in a game against the Dolphins offense. However, we should note that this new Dolphins quick-hitting pass attack is effective but not nearly as explosive as we’re used to. They’ve allowed the 10th-fewest points to opposing fantasy defenses over the last month, so they’re not a GOOD matchup, but a healthy Texans defense would be capable of putting up a top-ten performance against them.
The Chargers, Browns, and Rams are three defenses I have been a fan of all season but have just outside the top 10 here because of matchups. The Rams arguably have the best matchup against a banged-up 49ers offense that has given up the 14th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, but we just saw the Rams get lit up by the Bills. Still, if Trent Williams misses this game, the Rams pass rush should be able to get in Brock Puryd’s face often. The Chiefs are also not a stay-away matchup anymore but have allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, which is not great news for the Browns, while the Bucs have allowed the 15th-fewest fantasy points to defenses over the same span, which means they’re an average matchup for a Chargers defense that has not been as dynamic of late.
The Seahawks are likely a playoff team, but they are also very giving to fantasy defenses, having given up the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last four months. On the season, they rank 13th in turnover rate and 21st in sack rate allowed and will be going up against a Packers defense that is tied for 13th in sacks on the year. The Packers themselves have been a fairly average defense for fantasy purposes of late, averaging six points per game over the last six weeks and they rank just 20th in turnover rate over the last two months, so they may not be in the best spot to take advantage of the Seahawks’ weaknesses. Still, given the lack of top-tier matchups this week, they could be worth the gamble.
The Raiders and Falcons both have elite matchups against one another and they both are terrible defenses for fantasy. Do you really want to rest your playoff hopes on playing either one of them? I can’t see myself doing it outside of the deepest formats, but I would lean towards using the Raiders if I had to choose. The Falcons have given up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last six weeks. In the last four games, Kirk Cousins has eight interceptions and zero touchdowns. ZERO. The Raiders also rank slightly better for me in my BOD rankings, but they’re likely going to be starting Desmond Ridder at quarterback, which means their defense could consistently be put in bad situations that will impact their fantasy score. It’s just not a great situation overall.
. I get that people will want to play the Jets because they see the Jaguars on the other side, but the Jets have been arguably the worst fantasy defense over the last six weeks, ranking dead last in opponent’s scoring rate and dead last in turnover rate. Now their pass rush is fine, and they don’t give up many big plays, but this Jaguars offense gives up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so they are not as juicy a matchup as we may believe. The Jaguars have allowed just two sacks over the last four weeks and rank 9th in sack rate allowed on the season. If the Jets aren’t able to force turnovers, their only hope to score fantasy points is to make this a low-scoring game, which makes them risky. If Sauce Gardner and C.J. Mosley are back for Week 15, I could see moving them up around 15th overall, which is where I have the Raiders and Falcons playing against one another.
The Seahawks, Bills, and Lions are all defenses that I like and defenses that I would try to hold onto in your fantasy leagues, but they’re also all defenses that I would really not want to play this week in the fantasy playoffs given their tough matchups.
We need to stop attacking the Panthers’ offense in fantasy football. It’s been that way for about six weeks now, but we continue to do it. The Eagles have been one of the best defenses in fantasy football over the last two months, and the Panthers held them to just four fantasy points last week. Over the last six weeks, the Panthers have given up the 8th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. Yes, this Cowboys defense has been playing better, but if the Eagles couldn’t put up a top-15 performance against the Panthers then can we count on the Cowboys to do it?
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
