New week, new Make or Break list!
Now, before you look at this list and say, “I would NEVER start any of these guys,” let’s consider the state of our flex plays in Week 7. Looking at running backs specifically, once we get outside of the top 10, I’m extremely uncomfortable with our options. Injuries to lead backs plus an increase in committees means that, once you get past James Conner, you’re taking a risk no matter who you choose.
Quarterback inconsistencies have made WR3 and beyond very shaky. When making tough choices at flex, we have a wide range of factors to consider — matchup, upside, volatility.
Let’s get to some Week 7 options.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Darnell Mooney’s Week 6 production was underwhelming considering the matchup against a pass-friendly Carolina defense. However, typically only one receiver has thrived against the Panthers in a given game so this isn’t particularly alarming. Prior to last week, Mooney had been fairly reliable and showcased a high ceiling.
Coming off a Week 5 breakout performance, we likely set expectations a bit too high. Drake London is the clear, consistent Falcons’ WR1 and Mooney is a solid WR2 with flex value. In high pass volume situations, Mooney is start-worthy. Mooney is risky in matchups where the Falcons push aggressively on the ground, however.
Will Mooney make or break your lineup in Week 7?
This week, Mooney faces a Seattle defense that has struggled over the past several weeks. WR2s have been productive against the Seattle defense and Mooney has upside here. The downside is that teams haven’t pushed the pass aggressively against the Seahawks and volume could be an issue. When your team has multiple receiving threats, that doesn’t leave a lot of opportunity. This means Mooney will be a boom-or-bust play this week.
We’re in line for another two-touchdown, fantasy-point extravaganza … or a sub-five-fantasy-point disaster.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
After the Chiefs lost Isiah Pacheco for the year, Carson Steele stepped in as the RB1 but quickly fell out of favor due to turnovers. Kareem Hunt was activated and immediately took over as lead back. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, but in Week 5, Hunt had 27 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown. Hunt handling that level of volume was very encouraging.
However, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s looming return could lessen Hunt’s workload. Edwards-Helaire was on the NFI list and it’s important to remember he’s not coming off an injury. He may need to ramp up his conditioning, but he may see immediate action. To make matters worse, this week’s matchup isn’t particularly favorable against a 49ers defense that can be stingy against the run.
Will Hunt make or break your lineup in Week 7?
It’s important to note that Hunt’s 27 attempts in Week 5 were an extreme outlier for the Chiefs’ run game this season. Even in games with Isaiah Pacheco, the Chiefs’ backfield as a whole never reached 27 rush attempts. The game script was an outlier and the Chiefs had their highest offensive yardage total of the season and dominated the performance, nearly doubling New Orleans’ time of possession. Hunt’s production will likely look more like Week 4 when he had 14 carries for 69 yards and two receptions for 16 yards. Even if Edwards-Helaire isn’t active, Hunt isn’t a lock for volume in a game script that could favor decent usage from Samaje Perine.
Hunt is currently ranked as a mid-tier RB2 primarily due to injuries and uncertainty in other backfields. You may need to use him out of necessity, but beware — his current ranking is likely overshooting his upside. There is real potential for Hunt to underwhelm in Week 7.
Ty Chandler, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Ty Chandler should continue to lead the Vikings’ backfield if Aaron Jones is unable to play in Week 7. Normally, we’d jump at a lead back in a top-tier offense but we need to proceed with caution here. I struggle to see a scenario where Chandler can produce numbers similar to Aaron Jones. There’s simply a large talent discrepancy.
Jones has looked fantastic, averaging nearly five yards per carry this season. Chandler has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and made limited contributions through the air. The Vikings also traded for Cam Akers this week. This is Akers’ second stint with the Vikings. The Vikings traded for him last year and he had modest production, with no more than 10 carries in a single game before suffering a season-ending injury. It’s unlikely that Akers takes on a significant role, but his familiarity with the Vikings offense means he could play immediately and cut into Chandler’s workload.
Will Chandler make or break your lineup in Week 7?
Given the level of injuries and shared workloads we’re dealing with this week, running backs outside of the top 20 are looking extremely ugly. A lead back is a lead back and Chandler has already risen to an RB3 and a clear flex play in rankings. However, Chandler is still a tough play this week. Aside from his general production concerns, the matchup with Detroit is extremely difficult. With the exception of Kenneth Walker III in Week 4, running backs have struggled to find room against Detroit. Detroit’s defense will look a little different this week with the injury to Aidan Hutchinson, but this is still one of the most difficult matchups for opposing running backs. Chandler does have volume potential here and, given this game has one of the highest point totals of the week, there will likely be goal-line opportunities.
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars haven’t ruled out Travis Etienne Jr. this week, but have described him as “week to week” with a hamstring injury, and we all know what that means — the odds of him playing this week are extremely slim. That means waiver-wire darling Tank Bigsby will be the lead back.
There’s a big problem here. If we placed Bigsby in San Francisco, I would absolutely rank him as a top-10 back this week. But, he’s not in San Francisco. He’s on a Jaguars team with a defense that can’t stop anyone. This is a recipe for disaster for a running back the coaching staff doesn’t trust to pass block. That’s exactly what led to Bigsby’s seven carries for 24 yards last week against Chicago. Bigsby was significantly outsnapped by D’Ernest Johnson as the Jags played from behind.
Will Bigsby make or break your lineup in Week 7?
Bigsby is the better running back but if the team is playing from behind, he could be worthless. Even the Patriots could take advantage of this defense (more on them shortly).
All hope isn’t lost, though. Unlike Chicago, New England’s defense is struggling with injuries and could be vulnerable and the matchup favors running backs. Joe Mixon, Jordan Mason and even the Miami backfield with Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright have all feasted on the ground recently against New England. This is both an excellent and unreliable setup for Bigsby at the same time. If the Jags can keep the game close, I have no doubt Bigsby has RB1 upside. If the Jags can’t keep pace, we’ll be lucky to get even five fantasy points out of Bigsby.
New England Patriots Duo: Drake Maye, QB and DeMario Douglas, WR
Full disclosure: Maye practiced in full but got an MRI on his knee Wednesday. His injury should be monitored but if he’s able to suit up, Maye and Douglas have start-worthy potential in Week 7.
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If this were any other matchup, I’d say let’s give the rookie a little more time before we throw him into our starting lineups, but this is no ordinary matchup. Even with an unproven receiving corps and struggling offensive line, Maye can continue the trend of quarterbacks feasting on Jacksonville’s defense. Every quarterback — outside of Deshaun Watson, of course — has had a field day with the Jacksonville defense. The Jags allow over an average of two passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.
Maye is coming off an impressive debut with three touchdowns on 20 completions for 243 yards; he added 38 yards on the ground, and his presence was a boost for the entire New England receiving corps, a group that had been unusable and essentially destitute this season.
DeMario Douglas was the primary beneficiary with six receptions on nine targets for 92 yards and one touchdown.
To put into perspective how dramatic this is, Maye literally gave Douglas a career day. To his credit, Douglas has been operating as the WR1 with nine targets in three of the past four games. He simply lacked the upside with limited yardage and no touchdowns until Maye’s start.
Will Maye and Douglas make or break your lineup in Week 7?
Both players have risen dramatically in rankings with Maye as a borderline QB1 and Douglas as a WR3. However, the question remains — just how much trust can we put into an offense that we had zero trust in just a week ago? It’s entirely possible that this whole thing could come crashing down this week, even in a good matchup.
Maye is a rookie and even looking back at C.J. Stroud’s impressive year, there were games where he still hit well below expectations. However, a matchup with Jacksonville simply can’t be passed up. While both players are slightly uncomfortable starts, they could absolutely make your fantasy lineup this week.
