Fearless forecast for the Flyers’ 2024-25 season originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
There are plenty of compelling components to the Flyers’ 2024-25 season, which kicks off Friday night in Vancouver, British Columbia.
It’s Year 3 of the John Tortorella era and Year 1 of the Matvei Michkov era. Does that translate into a four-year playoff drought coming to an end? Or are the Flyers still deeper in their rebuild?
“I think we have plenty of things to do as we continue to build,” Tortorella said last week. “We are still building. I just don’t get that far ahead. It’s just hockey speak, right? ‘Yeah, we’re here to win a Stanley Cup.’ I don’t believe in that. We have so much s— to do with our team before we even start talking about that stuff.”
Before the club opens the season against the Canucks (10 p.m. ET/NBCSP), let’s get into our Flyers Fearless Forecast, featuring projections for how the team will finish and a random assortment of bold predictions from NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Brooke Destra, Joe Fordyce and Jordan Hall.
Destra
Flyers prediction/Cup prediction
Ready or not, playoff hockey makes its return to South Philly for the first time since April 2018. Yes, the Flyers made the postseason in the 2020 bubble — but it wasn’t the same. The drought will come to an end and this new era of orange will see what it’s like to play in front of a thunderous sold-out crowd.
Even with the late falloff last season, the Flyers still ended the year with 87 points (38-33-11). This year, they’ll break the 90-point barrier for the first time since 2017-18 with 93 and secure a wild-card spot.
Once they’re in? Who knows. Anything is possible — but certainly don’t chalk them up as a first-round exit.
Is this the season Connor McDavid can finally check Stanley Cup champion off his to-do list? He finally had a taste of playing for the Cup in the Final last season and 2024-25 is the year he finally leads the Oilers to the promised land.
In a six-game series, Edmonton will knock off the Rangers to hoist the Cup for the first time since 1990.
New hardware in Philly
It’s hard to believe that through the 56 years of this organization, not a single player has taken home the Calder Memorial Trophy. That changes in 2024-25.
The biggest storyline of the season is no secret — Michkov. The 19-year-old’s first season in the NHL is coming years before anyone had ever anticipated. There have been many instances over the past decade-plus for this Flyers club where expectations — if there were ever any set in the first place — fell short. Michkov is about to break that cycle by busting the door down in his rookie campaign.
It won’t be an easy rookie class to do it against, either. People will have eyes on the Ducks’ Cutter Gauthier and the Sharks’ Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith, among others. It will be a fun, additional element to keep tabs on throughout the season, that’s for sure.
Out of the basement
I’m going to chalk this one up to positive manifestations and wishful thinking … but this season, something has to give. The power play has been abysmal, averaging last in the league through the last six seasons. It has been as bad as you can get.
This is the season that changes. Now, don’t expect the Flyers to skyrocket to top three — but realistically, they should find a home in the middle of the pack. I firmly believe that if the Flyers even scored a dozen more power play goals last season, it could’ve swayed their chances for the playoffs.
This year, fans won’t be dreading every time they go to a man advantage — but will be optimistic. It’ll be a nice (and needed) change of pace.
Fordyce
Flyers prediction/Cup prediction
While this Flyers season is sure to provide excitement with Michkov’s arrival, we cannot view the Flyers’ rebuild and steps forward in a vacuum. With that said, I think the Flyers will just miss the playoffs with a winning record, but the East, as always, is full of good teams and I don’t think the Flyers are quite there yet.
The Flyers’ goaltending is a major question mark. Samuel Ersson is entering his first season as the starting goaltender. How many games will he be asked to start? Nobody knows, but it will be a lot. Ivan Fedotov, to this point, is an unknown commodity with limited NHL experience (one career start).
This is a different NHL from the days where Martin Brodeur would start almost every game. You need two goaltenders and there’s no greater evidence of that than last year’s playoffs.
Stanley Cup prediction: Stars over Rangers.
Feelin’ 40
My No. 1 bold prediction for the Flyers is that Travis Konecny will finally reach and surpass the 40-goal plateau in a season. At different points during the last two seasons, Konecny was on pace to score 40-plus goals. Injury and scoring droughts caused him to fall short of the mark.
With the two-time All-Star’s offseason contract extension and his new leadership role on this team, I believe Konecny, to some extent, will take ownership of this team and have his best season on record.
There goes that Cam
My second bold prediction is that this will be the season that Cam York emerges as not only a legit first-pair defenseman, but also the PP1 quarterback at the point. There’s a reason York was a high first-round pick and I think this will be the year that he shows it from the beginning of the season.
Hall
Flyers prediction/Cup prediction
The rebuilding Flyers made a 12-point jump from Year 1 to Year 2 under Tortorella, missing the playoffs on the final day of the regular season after losing nine of their last 11 games.
The head coach now has a dynamic piece added to his roster and is entering Year 3, a season in which he historically does very well with his teams.
• Third full season with Lightning in 2003-04: 106 points, Stanley Cup champions
• Third full season with Rangers in 2011-12: 109 points, Eastern Conference Final appearance
• Third full season with Blue Jackets in 2018-19: 98 points, advanced to second round
Couple Tortorella’s track record in Year 3 with Michkov’s expedited arrival and the Flyers will make the playoffs for the first time since the 2020 bubble. Through training camp and the preseason, the uber-talented winger was better than advertised, even exceeding Danny Briere’s expectations. In a way, Michkov is like a significant free-agent addition.
The Flyers are set to have 12 players 25 years old or younger in their season-opening lineup. There’s a lot of familiarity from last season, with most of the team’s youth now knowing what it’s like to play in a postseason race.
“I think it’s a huge leg up,” Flyers assistant coach Brad Shaw said a week and a half ago. “I think the level of success that this core group had last year, certainly through the first 65, 70 games, also gives us a leg up confidence-wise. We kind of have a blueprint for how it’s done.”
In 2023-24, the Flyers finished with 87 points at 38-33-11. A realistic improvement would be 92 points at 42-32-8. That should get them in the dance as a wild-card team with a tough first-round matchup and exit.
As for the Stanley Cup, the Maple Leafs will break through and win their first championship since 1967. Craig Berube gets his second ring as a head coach, leading Toronto past the Stars in seven games.
Fara-breakout
Still only 24 years old and getting better, Joel Farabee is poised for a big season.
He has gone under the radar with plenty of attention directed toward the other young forwards. But he’ll have more all-situation responsibility in 2024-25 and some extra motivation, too.
Let’s say 25 goals and 60 points for Farabee, who comes into the season with a 174-game ironman streak.
Power moves
Tough to tell where things go for the Flyers’ power play. Assistant coach Rocky Thompson has put in a ton of effort in trying to cure the woes. Over the offseason, he made “a huge presentation” with statistical analysis as the Flyers held an all-hands-on-deck meeting to dissect the man advantage.
The Flyers were plagued last season by their league-worst power play (12.2 percent). And it’s important to note the issues on the man advantage preceded Thompson, who is entering his third season overseeing the units. In 2021-22, the season prior to his arrival, the Flyers had an NHL-worst 12.6 power play percentage.
“It cannot be as bad as it was this year with the people we had,” Tortorella said after last season in April. “So we have to look at ourselves with this here.”
If the Flyers don’t see much improvement on the man advantage, especially with the arrival of Michkov and a healthy Jamie Drysdale, you have to wonder what they’ll try next for answers.
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