Stocks drifted higher leading into the shortened trading week that includes the Thanksgiving holiday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained nearly 2% for the week while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added over 1.5%.
In the week ahead, a fresh reading on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, will highlight the economic calendar. Updates on third quarter economic growth and housing activity are also on the schedule.
In corporate news, quarterly results from Zoom (ZM), Dell (DELL), Best Buy (BBY), CrowdStrike (CRWD), and Macy’s (M) are likely to catch investor attention.
Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and Friday’s trading session will end early at 1 p.m. ET.
Recent sticky inflation readings have raised questions about whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December and how much the central bank will lower rates over the next year.
Earlier this month, the “core” Consumer Price Index (CPI), which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, showed prices increased 3.3% in October for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the “core” Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed prices increased by 3.1% in October, up from 2.8% the month prior and above economist expectations for a 3% increase.
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman expressed concern that the Fed’s progress toward 2% inflation has “stalled” and the central bank should proceed “cautiously” when lowering interest rates.
“We have seen considerable progress in lowering inflation since early 2023, but progress seems to have stalled in recent months,” Bowman said in a speech at the Forum Club of the Palm Beaches.
Economists expect more signs of that stalling in Wednesday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release. Economists expect annual “core” PCE — which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy — to have clocked in at 2.8% in October, up from the 2.7% seen in September. Over the prior month, economists project “core” PCE at 0.3%, unchanged from September.
Bank of America Securities US economist Stephen Juneau wrote in a research note that a print in line with expectations will “certainly lead Fed participants to reassess their inflation and policy outlook.”
“That said,” he added, “we still expect the Fed to cut rates by 25bp in December, but the risk appears to be tilting towards a shallower cutting cycle given resilient activity and stubborn inflation.”
On Friday, markets were pricing in a 44% chance the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut interest rates at its December meeting, up from a 29% chance seen a month prior, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
While a holiday-shortened trading week will limit stock action, one of Wall Street’s hottest trades since election night is likely to keep surging. Bitcoin has shot up nearly 50% since Donald Trump won the election as crypto enthusiasts have cheered a changed regulatory outlook.
On Thursday, SEC Chair Gary Gensler announced he will be stepping down on Jan. 20, and bitcoin quickly rose to nearly $100,000 per coin for the first time ever. FedWatch Advisors chief investment officer Ben Emons told Yahoo Finance the rise of bitcoin is another sign of the risk-on mood in markets present since Trump won the election.
“We may not be so much in an environment like 2021 when it was frothy,” Emons said. “This is more about we’re going to potentially really go into a different environment next year with the economy, with faster growth, and more liquidity. [So] then, yes, bitcoin should be trading at higher levels. So breaking $100,000 [per coin] is quite likely here.”
Wall Street research firms are beginning to issue 2025 outlooks for the equity market. Largely, these reports have been bullish. Research teams tracked by Yahoo Finance have projected the benchmark index will finish as low as 6,400 next year or as high as 7,000.
But as DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas pointed out, many of the current targets fall in line with the traditional average annual return of the S&P 500 over the last century. And that roughly 11% annual return rarely ever comes over a one-year period.
“While the mean long run return is a comforting anchor for expectations, much less discussed is that the range around that average is very wide,” Colas wrote. He pointed out that the standard deviation from the 11.7% average annual return is 19.6 percentage points meaning any return from a 7.8% decline to a 31.2% increase could be considered “entirely consistent with historical norms.”
This brings Colas to the true takeaway from Wall Street’s recent bullish calls. It’s more about the direction of the market than the actual projection strategists slap on the S&P 500. And Colas largely agrees with the upside many have been pointing to for 2025.
“The most important issue for anyone invested in the US equity market is the stability of the US economy in 2025,” Colas wrote.
“We remain positive and believe the S&P 500 can rally more than its long-term average over the coming year,” Colas wrote. “The setup going into 2025 more closely resembles exceptionally strong years rather than weak ones. We therefore expect the S&P 500 to gain around 15 percent in 2025, ending the year at 6,840 based on [Thursday’s] close.”
Economic data: Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, November (-3 prior)
Economic data: S&P CoreLogic 20-city year-over-year NSA, August (5.20% prior); New home sales month-over-month, October (-1.8% expected, 4.1% prior); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, November (112.5 expected, 108.7 prior); Richmond Fed manufacturing index, November (-14 prior); FOMC Meeting Minutes (November meeting)
Earnings: Abercombie & Fitch (ANF), Autodesk (ADSK), Best Buy (BBY), Burlington Stores (BURL), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Dell (DELL), HP (HPQ), Kohl’s (KSS), Macy’s (M), Manchester United (MANU), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Workday (WDAY)
Economic data: Personal income, October (0.3% expected, 0.3% prior); Personal spending, October (0.4% expected, 0.5% prior); PCE index month-over-month, October (0.2% expected, 0.2% prior); PCE Index year-over-year, October (2.3% expected, 2.1% prior); Core PCE Index month-over-month, October (0.3% expected, 0.3% prior); Core PCE Index, year-over-year, October (2.8% expected, 2.7% prior); MBA mortgage applications, Nov. 22 (0.5% prior); GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter, third quarter second estimate (+2.8% expected, +2.8% prior); Core PCE Price Index quart-over-quarter, third quarter second estimate (2.2% prior); Wholesale inventories month-over-month, October (+0.8% prior); Initial jobless claims, week ending Nov. 23 (213,000 prior); Pending home sales month-over-month (7.4% prior)
Earnings: No notable earnings releases.
Markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Friday
Economic data: MNI Chicago PMI, November (41.6 prior)
Earnings: No notable earnings releases.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
