The 2024-25 NBA season is going to be unpredictable.
We’ve already seen one All-NBA player traded for another — Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo — before training camps even opened. This season feels wide open, with more contending teams entering the season than we have seen in a long time. Ultimately, this season may follow form, and Boston will repeat as champions, but the path to that moment will be long and winding.
Let’s try to predict the unpredictable — here are five bold predictions for the coming NBA season.
Klay Thompson will be Dallas’ sixth man by the All-Star break
Klay Thompson chose Dallas as a free-agent destination for several reasons: playing with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, changing the narrative around him, and the chance to start. The Mavericks reportedly told Thompson he would start for them and that makes sense, he brings valued floor spacing and shooting. Last season, teams would leave Derrick Jones Jr. alone in the corner and dare him to beat them, nobody is doing that with Thompson.
However, Thompson is not the defender he once was — he was a minus defender last season — and that could be an issue next to Doncic and Irving. It would put a lot of pressure on second-year center Derrick Lively II to clean things up around the rim.
However, the Mavericks also landed wing Naji Marshall as a free agent this summer. While he’s not as big and sexy a name as Thompson, Marshall is a quality defender who made a leap last season and shot 38.7% from 3 and 42% on corner 3s. If Marshall can continue to shoot 3s at that rate, he’s a better fit next to Doncic and Irving.
By the All-Star break it will be clear Dallas is just better with Marshall starting and Thompson playing 20+ minutes a night off the bench. Jason Kidd will sit down and have the tough conversation. But, if it’s what is best for a team with aspirations of returning to the NBA Finals and taking one more step, Kidd will do it.
New York Knicks will finish regular season with best record in East
Boston is the team to beat in the East and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they won 60 games or more again this season. However, with no Kristaps Porzingis until around Christmas and a championship hangover, don’t expect the Celtics to lap the field as they did a season ago.
That opens the door for the Knicks to grab the top seed.
New York was the No. 2 seed in the East a season ago and upgraded this offseason. First they added Mikal Bridges to the wing and as a secondary playmaker next to Jalen Brunson. Then last week, the Knicks upgraded the center position trading for Karl-Anthony Towns, who will put the Knicks offense into overdrive with his floor spacing and scoring.
Add in the fact this is a Tom Thibodeau team that will play every regular season game like it’s the playoffs and New York is going to rack up a lot of wins. More than the Celtics. New York will have the top seed in the East and Madison Square Garden will be rocking in the playoffs.
Nets’ Cam Thomas will finish the season top five in NBA in scoring
Cam Thomas has never met a shot he didn’t like.
The Nets are rebuilding this season but somebody has to take the shots in Brooklyn — we know Ben Simmons is going to pass on his open jumpers — and Thomas at an all-you-can-eat buffet is going to mean a lot of points. Don’t expect efficiency, but he’s going to score a lot of points.
Thomas will finish in the top five in the NBA in scoring this season because of the opportunity he’s got in Brooklyn. (The only thing that stops this prediction is Thomas getting traded to a team that slots him in as a sixth-man gunner and limits his chances.)
When the Bucks struggle, Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors bubble up. Again.
Maybe this isn’t a bold prediction because it’s already started happening.
Every NBA front office has a list of superstars who might be on the move because if a franchise wants to win the ultimate prize, it needs one of them. There are maybe 10 players in the NBA today who can legitimately be the true cornerstone of a championship contender, and right now, none of those guys look like they’re going to be on the move anytime soon (Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)… Giannis Antetokounmpo is the closest thing. So his name comes up.
This is not fair to the Bucks and their fans, Antetokounmpo signed an extension with the team a year ago, signaling that the trade for Damian Lillard was evidence that the Milwaukee ownership and front office was committed to winning. However, year one of the Antetokounmpo/Lillard era did not go as planned, and if things start slowly this season for a team with no margin for error other teams will be watching, waiting to see if the ultra-competitive Antetokounmpo becomes frustrated and starts to look around.
And the rumors will start. Fair or not.
Five games will separate West’s No. 6 seed from missing even the play-in
It’s impossible to overstate how brutal the West is going to this season — 12 teams expect to make the playoffs (and that’s not counting San Antonio, which should have play-in aspirations) and ultimately only eight are going to the dance (two more get knocked out in the play-in). Coaches and GMs will feel their chairs getting warm if their team stumbles and looks like it could miss the postseason.
It should break down like this: Expect the Thunder to get the top seed, they did a year ago and then went out and upgraded the roster with Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. Dallas with Luka Doncic and Denver with Nikola Jokic will be second and third in some order, although the Timberwolves could slip into that group (I’m a little less sure about them after they traded away Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle). That’s the top four.
Then it gets brutally close. The Grizzlies. Suns, Pelicans, Warriors, Kings, Lakers, Rockets and Clippers will be bunched together in some order, and that seeds 5-12.
Things will be so tight that just five games will separate the No. 6 seed — a team that gets to avoid the play-in tournament — and the No. 12 seed that misses the postseason entirely and is having serious discussions about the franchise’s direction. Little things, like a star rolling his ankle and missing a couple of weeks, could be the difference.
Last season there were 11 games separating the No. 6 seed and missing the play-in, this season will be very different. That’s great for fans who want to be entertained, but it’s going to be stressful for teams.
