Ford shares fall despite Q3 sales beat, as it guides to lower end of 2024 profit forecast

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Ford (F) reported third quarter earnings after the bell on Monday, beating on revenue but guiding to the lower end of its full-year forecast. Ford’s results follow rival GM’s blowout Q3 result and third profit guidance boost for the year.

Ford reported revenue of $46.2 billion vs $41.9 billion estimated per Bloomberg, down compared to the $47.8 billion reported last quarter but 5% higher than the $43.8 billion reported a year ago. Ford posted adjusted EPS of $049 matching estimates, on adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of $2.6 billion. Ford said net income came in at $900 million, affected by a $1 billion one-time EV-related charge that had been previously dislclosed.

Ford brought down its full-year profit forecast, with the automaker now seeing 2024 adjusted EBIT “to be about $10 billion,” the lower end of its previous $10 billion to $12 billion.

“We have made strategic decisions and taken the tough actions to create advantages for Ford versus the competition in key areas like Ford Pro, international operations, software and next-generation electric vehicles” Ford President and CEO Jim Farley said in a statement. “Importantly, over time, we have significant financial upside as we bend the curve on cost and quality, a key focus of our team.”

As part of its Ford+ plan, Ford divided its business into three units: Ford Blue for the traditional gas-powered business, Ford Model e for the EV division, and Ford Pro for its commercial and super duty truck business. Analysts are expecting the following for Q3:

  • Ford Blue: $26.2 billion in reveue, $1.627 billion in EBIT

  • Model e: $1.2 billion in revenue, -$1.224 billion in EBIT

  • Ford Pro: $15.7 billion in revenue, $1.814 billion in EBIT

Ford said it expected full-year Model E losses to be about $5 billion, slightly lower than the $5.5 billion previously projected.

Ford’s Q3 US deliveries, reported earlier this month, jumped 4.3% year over year to 504,039 vehicles, though they are still down compared to the 536,050 delivered last quarter. Ford said EV sales jumped 12% year over year, powered by the Ford Lightning pickup and Ford E-transit van. Ford hybrid vehicles, led by the Maverick pickup, surged 38% year over year.

A line of unsold 2024 Mustang Mach-E electric utility vehicles sit at a Ford dealership May 19, 2024, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

GM, on the other hand, has raised its guidance each quarter this year, and now sees adjusted EBIT of $14 billion to $15 billion ($13 billion-$15 billion previously), among other metrics.

GM also announced $16 billion in buybacks and share repurchases over the past year, whereas Ford has not thus far.

Conversely, GM projects it will achieve EV profitability on a positive variable profit margin basis by the end of this year, whereas Ford said it only sees real profitability with the coming of its second-gen EVs. Ford will give a full update on its EV business outlook and profitability in the first half of next year.

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