In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Browns vs. Saints
I was skeptical in last week’s Funnel Defense Report of the Saints as an unquestioned pass funnel. And hey, look at that: I was right. The Falcons were 9 percent below their expected drop back rate against New Orleans.
I’m here to tell you what the spreadsheets tell me, and those stubborn little sheets still insist the Saints are a pass funnel. In fact, only three defenses are more extreme pass funnels on the season. There might be an easy explanation for why the Falcons went heavy on the run in Week 10 against the Saints. Atlanta has shown at every turn this season that they want to be a run-first team, with Kirk Cousins as a game-managing point guard. The Falcons have been above their expected pass rate just twice in 2024. So it goes.
Enter the Browns, with a drop back rate of 71 percent (5 percent over expected) since Jameis Winston took over for Deshaun Watson. Cleveland has the league’s fourth highest early down neutral pass rate over that stretch and has largely abandoned the run when trailing. It all sets up well for a bunch of Winston drop backs in Week 11.
Another pass-heavy outing should make us bullish on Cedric Tillman — Winston’s preferred big play wideout — along with David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, and even Elijah Moore, who has 21 targets over his past two games. Moore’s scammy average depth of target (7.5) could make him interesting in deeper formats and DFS contests if the Browns lean hard on the pass.
It’s not exactly an ugly matchup for Nick Chubb and the Browns rushing offense. New Orleans is allowing the fourth highest rate of rush yards before contact this season and the third highest rushing success rate. As you may have gleaned from this write up, Saints-Browns has significant fantasy juice.
Steelers vs. Ravens
This is the part of the Funnel Defense Report where I highlight the team facing Baltimore, the league’s most pronounced pass funnel.
Only one team — the Broncos two weeks ago — has been below its expected pass rate against the Ravens in 2024. It’s a remarkable trend, something I haven’t seen in three years of tracking run and pass funnel defenses. Ravens opponents are avoiding a tough-as-nails rush defense allowing the third lowest rush EPA since Week 5 and attacking a vulnerable secondary that’s being gouged for explosive plays at a league-high rate.
It’s not as if the Steelers have opened up the passing attack since Russell Wilson took over for Justin Fields last month. Quite the opposite has transpired, in fact. Pittsburgh has a 49 percent drop back rate over the team’s past three games, 12 percent under expected. So there’s a chance the Steelers will become the second team to go run first against Baltimore in 2024.
There’s also a chance the Steelers pass at something close to their expected rate, which would create significantly more target volume for the team’s pass catcher, primarily George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. It could also be beneficial for Mike Williams, who caught a 32-yard touchdown in Week 10 on his lone target. Ramped-up usage for Williams in Week 11 and a less-run-heavy script for the Steelers could make him viable as a flex in deeper formats.
Pickens, of course, is in a proverbial smash spot against a Ravens defense allowing the NFL’s fifth highest completion rate over expected on targets of more than 20 yards downfield.
Jaguars vs. Lions
I am well aware that the Jaguars franchise is in danger of being relegated this Sunday against the Lions. We can only hope Dan Campbell shows some mercy once the Lions are up 35-0 in the second quarter. Leave some kneecaps, Dan.
I’m only writing this to say Evan Engram could be viable here. The Lions are the league’s second most pronounced pass funnel defense and Engram was targeted on a hefty 35 percent of his pass routes in Week 10 with Mac Jones under center. He led the Jags in air yards and targets — not an easy feat for a tight end. The pass funnel matchup and the likely sideways game script could easily lead to double digit looks for Engram. I think he remains a starting option in 12-team formats in what will surely be a massacre.
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Run Funnel Matchups
Colts vs. Jets
This game represents a clash of two of the NFL’s most extreme run funnels. We’ve seen nearly every team to face the Jets and the Colts shift to a run-first, run-only game plan against marshmallow soft defensive fronts.
Let’s start with the Colts. Shane Steichen’s dysfunctional offense has been under its expected pass rate in seven of ten games in 2024, and the horseshoes have only gotten run heavier as the season has worn on. Anthony Richardson making his not-quite-triumphant return to the starting lineup in Week 11 likely means a mega run-heavy game plan for the Colts.
This, of course, wrecks any fantasy juice we were going to squeeze out of Josh Downs. The impressive slot receiver goes from a PPR WR2 to barely playable in 12-team leagues in a matchup against the run-funnel Jets. The same goes for Michael Pittman. Alec Pierce and AD Mitchell are fantasy nonentities unless, perhaps, they have a long reception on limited pass volume.
Jonathan Taylor should be set up for a solid workload against a New York defense allowing the NFL’s fifth highest rushing success rate and the sixth highest rush EPA. The Jets are top ten in yards after contact allowed since Week 7. Taylor, who has more than 20 rushing attempts in four of his past five games, should see another 20-touch game here. He needs to be in all lineups, even in shallow leagues where managers might have their pick of good running back plays.
Breece Hall should be in a superb spot, though Aaron Rodgers and the faltering passing attack might see to it that Hall again doesn’t take full advantage of a delectable little matchup. Hall, with 25 of the team’s 36 running back rushes over the past two games, should be able to get home for fantasy purposes even if the Jets — with the NFL’s third highest pass rate over expected — remain a pass-first unit.
I have a hard time believing the Jets, scrambling to save their season and frustrated with a pass-heavy offense that has stalled at every turn, won’t at least try to establish it against Indianapolis. Do not, under any circumstances, get cute and bench Hall in Week 11.
