In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Chargers vs. Ravens
We start, as always, with the Ravens and their big, beautiful pass funnel defense. As faithful readers of this space know well, Baltimore is the NFL’s preeminent pass funnel, with eight of ten opponents going over their expected pass rate. Even the run-first, run-always Steelers were 1 percent over their expected pass rate against the Ravens in Week 11. Adjusted for Arthur Smith, that is the pass heaviest game in the history of organized football.
Now the suddenly pass-curious Chargers take on the Ravens a week after the Bolts were nearly 10 percent above their expected pass rate against the Bengals (leading to 47 Justin Herbert drop backs, the fifth most on the week). LA is now over its expected pass rate in four of their past five outings; only five teams have been more pass heavy since Week 7. The Chargers, quite incredibly, have the league’s third highest early down neutral pass rate over the past five weeks.
You can pencil in Herbert for 40-50 drop backs against the Ravens unless, of course, game script goes wacky. Last week against the Bengals, a pass-first script generated nine targets for Ladd McConkey, eight targets for Quentin Johnston, and six (glorious) targets for Will Dissly. All three LA pass catchers are firmly in play for 12-team league purposes, and Josh Palmer is viable in deeper leagues.
Johnson, Herbert’s primary deep threat this season, faces off against a Baltimore secondary allowing the ninth highest accuracy rate on pass attempts of over 20 yards. Only Jacksonville has given up more downfield receptions than the Ravens in 2024. It might be QJ szn.
The Vegas total in this game, for what it’s worth, has gone from 47 to 51 over the past couple days.
Broncos vs. Raiders
It’s rare for a bad team to become a reliable pass funnel, but that’s exactly what we have with the down-nightmarish Raiders, who have seen eight of their past nine opponents go over their expected pass rate. Even the hyper-conservative, run-first Dolphins in Week 11 went pass-first against Vegas.
Fresh off his four-touchdown performance against the Falcons, Bo Nix is again a must-start option in 12-team formats against the Raiders, the third most pronounced pass funnel defense in the NFL. Denver was 5 percent over its expected pass rate in their Week 5 romp of the Raiders, dropping back on a reasonably high 57 percent of their first down plays. Nix logged 32 drop backs and threw for 209 yards and two scores. He also had eight rushes, including one for a touchdown.
It’s a good matchup in every way for Nix, who — as I mentioned on Tuesday’s Rotoworld Football Show — has shown major improvements as a short-area passer in recent weeks. Now he squares off against a Vegas coverage unit allowing the NFL’s fourth highest pass rate over expected on passes between 1-10 yards. Only four teams have given up a higher adjusted yards per attempt than the Raiders on short-area pass attempts. It all shapes up well for Nix and perhaps Devaughn Vele, who has established himself as the Broncos’ No. 2 wideout.
Broncos running backs combined for eight receptions the last time Denver played Vegas. That could be a boon for Javonte Williams, the team’s primary pass-catching back.
Run Funnel Matchups
Chiefs vs. Panthers
The bigly-favored Chiefs are more than a little likely to lean hard on the run this week against Carolina. The Panthers through Week 11 are the NFL’s fifth most extreme run funnel, and for good reason: Carolina is allowing the league’s highest rushing success rate (47 percent) and only the Cowboys give up a higher rush EPA. Opposing rushing attacks have been both voluminous and efficient against Carolina’s lowly front seven this season. It’s a bad combo.
Isiah Pacheco reportedly wants to return to action this week after missing most of the season with a leg injury. That could complicate matters for fantasy managers, though I doubt Pacheco will be plunged back into the workhorse role he enjoyed in the season’s first few weeks. Enough rushing the Chiefs — who have a middle-of-the-road 55 percent neutral pass rate — and Kareem Hunt could still deliver RB1 numbers against the Panthers.
Hunt’s rushing totals — he had 14 carries in each of the past two games — have dried up a bit with the Chiefs going pass heavy for the first time in 2024, first against the Broncos in Week 10 (12 percent over their expected drop back rate) and then against Buffalo in Week 11 (3 percent over). It would be somewhat stunning for Kansas City to go pass heavy against an easily gettable Carolina defense.
The Panthers this season are allowing the fifth highest rate of rush yards before contact, a welcomed Week 12 development for a KC offensive line creating the sixth lowest rate of rush yards before contact. Hunt is very much startable even if Pacheco returns to the backfield fold against the Panthers.
A run-first scheme against Carolina could mean reduced pass volume for Travis Kelce and the rest of the KC pass catchers. The middling Chiefs passing attack — if one can even call it that — could be shelved entirely if this game gets out of hand early. In the Chiefs’ run-heaviest game of 2024 — a Week 7 game against the 49ers — Kelce saw just five targets while Noah Gray led the team with four catches and 66 yards. It could get real bleak real fast for Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, and Xavier Worthy if they don’t get an early touchdown or three against Carolina.
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Talking up a matchup for a running back on a team coming into the week as 10.5-point underdogs is not my favorite thing to do. Yet here I am, telling you about Rico Dowdle’s Week 12 prospects against the run-funnel Washington defense.
I fully understand the Commanders could run away with this one and destroy any chance Dowdle might have to post usable fantasy numbers. But this Byepocalypse week of pain, we can hardly be choosers. We are, in fact, beggars. And we are begging for a halfway decent outing for Dowdle.
It’s possible we get one. Washington is the league’s most pronounced run funnel defense, with opponents passing the ball at a league-low 49 percent rate in neutral situations (when the game is within once score). Dan Quinn’s team has been gouged via the run game through much of the season, allowing the NFL’s highest rate of rush yards before contact. Since Week 4, when teams really started leaning on the run against Washington, Commanders opponents have been a collective 12 percent below their expected pass rate (PROE). The next closest team, the Jets, have seen opponents post a PROE of -6 percent. It’s a giant gap.
We know the Cowboys want to use Dowdle was the lead back. He operated as one last week against the Texans before thing went sideways in the second half and Ezekiel Elliott came in for mop-up duty. I would not be shocked if Dowdle set a season high in touches this week, assuming Cooper Rush can avoid an early meltdown (probably a terrible assumption). Still, you can likely do worst then Rico in Week 12.
