In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
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Pass Funnel Defense Matchups
Broncos vs. Ravens
Bo Nix haters, of whom there are many, might be in for another rough Sunday in Week 9 as the man with 50,000 college snaps takes on the league’s most extreme pass funnel defense.
The pass-funnel Ravens in Week 8 saw the Browns operate at 5 percent above their expected drop back rate. The Bills, all the way back in Week 4, remain the only team to be below their expected pass rate against Baltimore (and just barely, at -1.5 percent).
The Broncos, meanwhile, are slowly morphing into a reliably pass-first offense. Sean Payton’s guys actually lead the NFL in pass rate over expected (+7 percent) over the past three weeks. The Broncos even went pass heavy against the run funnel Panthers in Week 8. This little trend has created nice, if unexpected, pass volume for Nix and the team’s pass catchers.
Only five quarterbacks have more drop backs than Nix over the past three weeks; that’s a pretty big deal for a QB who scrambles as much as Nix does. The rookie has at least five rushing attempts in seven of his eight games this season. I would not be shocked in the least if Nix pushes up on double digit rushes in what profiles as a high-volume game on both sides of the ball. What I’m saying is that Nix has top-10 upside in Week 9, whether you like it or not (you don’t).
This, naturally, puts Courtland Sutton in play a week after he posted 100 receiving yards with a 29 percent target share against Carolina (and seeing the seventh most air yards on the week). Troy Franklin might profile as a desperation option in deeper formats. Denver’s running backs should be faded against a Baltimore defense allowing the fourth lowest rate of rush yards before contact and the league’s lowest rush EPA.
Chiefs vs. Bucs
The wretched Tampa defense just happens to be the worst in defending everything the Chiefs like to do, namely checking down at a league-high rate with the greatest game manager of all time under center.
And the Bucs happen to be the league’s fifth most extreme pass funnel defense. Seven of eight teams to face the Bucs this season have been over their expected pass rate, with three of those teams being at least 7 percent over. That’s a lot, per the analytics. There’s also this: No team
Back to the check downs: Tampa allows the third highest pass rate over expected on pass attempts between zero and nine yards and the third highest adjusted yards on short-area throws. That should be quite good for Patrick Mahomes, whose 5.9 air yards per attempt is the lowest in the NFL. Darkness descends.
A pass-first game for the Kansas City offense could create ceiling scenarios for Travis Kelce and perhaps DeAndre Hopkins, who figures to operate in the short areas. Such a mouth watering matchup might even make Mahomes fantasy relevant in 12-team leagues. Imagine that.
Eagles vs. Jaguars
We’re going to keep going to the Jags-as-pass-funnel well in Week 9 because, well, it’s worked out for us over the past couple weeks. Almost everyone to face Jacksonville’s miserable defense in 2024 has leaned toward the pass, to put it mildly (the Packers in Week 8 were an exception because Jordan Love missed much of the game with a groin injury; nevertheless, we persist).
Jags opponents are 6 percent over their expected pass rate on the season. Only the Ravens and Lions profile as more pronounced pass funnels this year.
Enter the Eagles, who sport the league’s second lowest pass rate over expected, could be slightly less run heavy against these Jaguars. Though the Eagles are ready and willing to establish the run forever and ever, amen (sorry to get religious) against teams that can’t stop the run — they were 18 percent below their expected drop back rate in Week 8 against the Bengals — they have been willing to be more balanced against horrid secondaries. Philly had a 67 percent drop back rate in Week 3 against the Saints, one of the NFL’s worst coverage units. That’s well above their season long drop back rate of 50 percent.
This is most important for DeVonta Smith. He has a humble 13 targets over his past three games because the pass volume simply hasn’t been there. Against a Jacksonville defense seeing 36 pass attempts per game, Smith should be in for an 8-10 target outing unless game script goes off the rails early. A.J. Brown, meanwhile, finds himself in what the zoomers are calling a “giga smash spot.” Dallas Goedert might even catch a pass or two!
Run Funnel Defense Matchups
Giants vs. Commanders
A weird thing has happened with the Washington defense. They’re good now. The dream of a sieve-like Commanders defense forcing Jayden Daniels into one pass-heavy script after another is long dead. So it goes.
Dan Quinn’s defense over the past month has given up the third lowest drop back EPA and the fourth lowest adjusted net yards per pass attempt (a nerdy metric but a reliable way to measure the stinginess of a secondary). Washington opponents have chosen massively run heavy game plans for much of the season, especially over the past four weeks. The Commanders have seen their opponents post a league-low -10 percent pass rate over expected since Week 4. Just last week, the Bears were 13 percent below their expected pass rate against Washington.
On the season, Washington opponents are 17 percent below their expected pass rate. They are, in short, the NFL’s most extreme run funnel and it’s not close.
The Giants are sure to follow this script if they can find a way to maintain neutral game script against the Commanders in Week 9. New York was -3 percent PROE against Washington in Week 2, as Devin Singletary ran for 95 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. Tyrone Tracy’s entrance into the league’s concussion protocol on Tuesday means he’s unlikely to play in this spectacular Week 9 matchup, leaving Singletary — who had just two rushes in Week 8 — as the Giants’ clear lead back. Singletary goes from droppable to something close to a must-start option. The Tracy drafters may never recover, emotionally, financially, and in all ways. Unless, of course, he plays, in which case Tracy drafters will achieve generational wealth.
Falcons vs. Cowboys
The last time Atlanta played a run funnel defense, they were 12 percent under their expected pass rate and Bijan Robinson went for 103 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Robinson — and to a lesser extent, Tyler Allgeier — now face the NFL’s fourth most pronounced run funnel, also known as Jerry’s team, also known as the Cowboys.
Only the Commanders allow a higher rate of rush yards before contact than Dallas through Week 8 — a potential disaster against a Falcons offensive line creating the fourth most rush yards before contact. Only the Bengals give up a higher rushing success rate than the Cowboys. The weakness of the Dallas defense practically invites the Falcons to be massively run heavy in neutral or positive game script. The Falcons, much to the chagrin of folks who drafted the team’s pass catchers, very much want to lean on the run. If you don’t believe me, consider Atlanta is below its expected pass rate in six of eight games this season.
It’s not that the Cowboys can or will shut down the Atlanta passing attack. Dallas is allowing the highest completion rate over expected and the sixth highest drop back EPA. Their secondary is bad. That opens the potential for another hyper efficient Kirk Cousins game that delivers for fantasy purposes for Cousins and one or two of his primary pass catchers. The offense should be centered around a 20-25 touch outing for Robinson, and perhaps eight or ten touches for Allgeier, who profiles as a desperation flex.
