Dow Jones futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, with the stock market set to wrap up 2024 and ring in the new year.
The stock market rally saw sharp Friday losses to slash what had been strong weekly gains.
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The Nasdaq and S&P 500 aren’t that far from record highs. But the Dow Jones, Russell 2000 and other key measures are below key levels.
Nvidia (NVDA) fell back from an early entry and key levels, though it eked out a gain.
Tesla stock tumbled Friday but still rose for the week. Tesla (TSLA) will report fourth-quarter and full-year deliveries and production figures, likely before early Jan. 2. China EV makers BYD (BYDDF), Nio (NIO), XPeng (XPEV), Li Auto (LI) and Zeekr (ZK) will release sales as well this coming week.
Nvidia stock is a hedged position on IBD Leaderboard, with Tesla on the Leaderboard watchlist. Zeekr stock is on the IBD 50.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally continued a rebound for much of Christmas week, until Friday, although those the indexes came off their worst levels.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.35% in last week’s stock market trading, still below the 50-day line. The S&P 500 index climbed 0.7%, but fell back below the 21-day line on Friday and briefly undercut the 50-day line. The Nasdaq composite rose 0.8% after skidding 1.5% Friday to undercut the 21-day intraday. The small-cap Russell 2000 eked out a 0.2% gain.
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was just above break-even for the week. The First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index ETF (QQEW) climbed 0.5%.
Leading stocks are still doing well.
Speculative plays such as nuclear and quantum computing were big winners for the week, even with some falling Friday.
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 4.62%, at the highest level since early May.
U.S. crude oil futures rose 1.6% to $70.60 a barrel last week.
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ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) edged up 0.2% last week after Friday’s 2.9% loss. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell 1.3%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) gained 2.3%. Nvidia stock is the No. 1 holding in SMH.
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) dipped 0.2% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) bounced 3.2%. Tesla stock is a major holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs. Cathie Wood’s Ark also has a big Nvidia stake.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) edged down 0.2% last week. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) gained 0.5% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) advanced 0.7%.
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) fell 0.4%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) climbed 0.5%.
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Tesla Stock
Tesla stock rose 2.5% to 431.66 for the week. Shares jumped initially during the week, hitting 465.33 intraday Thursday, before slashing gains. TSLA stock has been consolidating since peaking at 488.54, but doesn’t show a buying opportunity right now.
Tesla will report fourth-quarter and full-year deliveries and production figures in early January, likely before the open on Thursday, Jan. 2. Analysts expect Tesla to report record Q4 deliveries slightly above 500,000. Elon Musk, on the Q3 earnings call, predicted full-year deliveries would slightly top 2024’s 1,808,591. To do that, the EV giant must reach 514,925 in Q4.
Tesla has offered various discounts and incentives to boost demand. China has been strong, while the U.S. and especially Europe have been weak.
The company also will disclose battery storage deployments for Q4.
While the deliveries and storage figures will be key for Q4 earnings, they may not have a huge impact on Tesla stock. TSLA stock’s huge gains in recent months have come on optimism about self-driving, AI, robotics and more, with a Trump administration seen easing the regulatory path.
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Nvidia Stock
Nvidia stock gained 1.8% to 137.09 for the week. Shares flashed an aggressive entry Tuesday as it moved above the 50-day line. But NVDA stock then retreated, falling back below the 50-day and 21-day lines Friday.
Nvidia now has a shallow double-bottom base with a 146.54 buy point, right next to the top of a prior base. Tuesday’s intraday high of 141.90 could serve as an early entry.
What To Do Now
The stock market rally continues to look fine, despite being somewhat divided. Leading stocks generally are acting well, despite Friday’s losses, though many are extended.
The end and start of the year is a strange time, with whipsaw swings fairly common.
That makes new buys difficult. Holding steady with significant to heavy exposure is still a good strategy.
But work on your watchlists. A number of leading stocks are setting up. You want to be ready to take advantage.
Friday’s losses in some high-octane leaders show why investors may want to have some steadier names, often outside of tech, to balance out your portfolio. Burlington Stores (BURL), Boston Scientific (BSX), Antero Resources (AR) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR) are names to watch.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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