Florida State is back on the road this weekend after losing to LSU in Baton Rouge on Tuesday. They’ll face last year’s ACC Tournament champion and Final Four participant NC State in Raleigh for their first conference game of the season.
NC State has been a good matchup for FSU since Kevin Keatts took over in Raleigh, with FSU winning six of the eight games they’ve played against Coach Keatts, including two on the road. This should be a very good game between two coaches who know each other well.
This game will be at 4 p.m. EST on ESPNU from the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina.
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North Carolina State Wolfpack Breakdown (5-3)
NC State is in its eighth season under Kevin Keatts. He likely wouldn’t have gotten his eighth had the Wolfpack not gone on an improbable run through the ACC Tournament and into the Final Four last season. It was one of the more incredible runs we’ve seen in recent memory. And it’s extremely unlikely to happen again with this year’s team.
After starting the season 5-0, they’ve dropped their last three games. Their first five games were against teams with an average KenPom rating of 271, and no one ranked higher than 215th (as of Friday at 4:30sh EST). The three games since have been against Purdue, BYU, and Texas. They put up a good fight against Texas on Wednesday, but a few questionable calls went against them (which makes me nervous about the officiating for this game), and Michael O’Connell played his worst game of the season.
O’Connell is one of just three contributors that stayed from last year’s team. He’s not an outstanding scorer or shooter, but he’s an experienced guard who is usually steady with the ball. He entered their game against Texas with just four turnovers in seven games, then had four turnovers against Texas alone. It’s hard to imagine he’ll have another game like that, but it’s something FSU will try to exploit.
They’re led in scoring by Jayden Taylor, another holdover from last year’s team. He’s averaging 13.5 PPG while shooting 55.1% on two-pointers but just 25.7% from three. This is someone FSU has to keep out of the paint as a perimeter creator.
Marcus Hill starts next to O’Connell in the backcourt and was a 20 PPG at Bowling Green last season. His shots have cut in half from last season but his efficiency inside the arc has jumped to 57.6%. Wednesday against Texas was his best game against major competition, but it’ll be interesting to see if FSU’s pressure bothers him.
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield transferred in from Louisville to take DJ Burns’ spot in the rotation and has been… fine with 10.6 PPG and 6.1 RPG. He’s not much of a rim protector, so FSU should have free access to the rim all game if they want it. Huntley-Hatfield KILLED the Seminoles last year at Louisville, finishing with a career-high 29 points. Safe to say that FSU will have to defend him better than they did last year.
Ben Middlebrooks, the nephew of former FSU quarterback Danny Kanell, started his career at Clemson and has been a solid depth piece. He doesn’t really do anything that scares me, but if he starts next to Huntley-Hatfield, it will help their rebounding issues.
Dontrez Styles is the other name you’ll need to know. He started his career across town at UNC before transferring to Georgetown and having a breakout season. He’s now back in the Triangle playing for the Wolfpack. Wednesday against Texas was easily his best game of the season, with 17 points while making three of his five three-pointers. He had been just 5/20 from deep heading into the game. He shot nearly 37% from deep last year at Georgetown, so he can shoot.
NC State may only play those six players. Breon Pass will play 10-12 minutes just to give them someone else to play, but this is otherwise a really thin team right now. They were hoping to have Louisville transfer Mike James back by now, but he’s had a setback recovering from knee surgery, and they’re not sure when he’ll be back, but they could use his scoring.
The Wolfpack want to play fast and get out in transition, but they’ve been slowed down in their last three games. That’ll likely be what FSU tries to key in on. They’re a poor rebounding, free throw shooting, and three-point shooting team. They do have good interior defense metrics despite not having a rim protector and force a high turnover rate.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (7-2)
Florida State is now 0-2 against power conference opponents after dropping Tuesday’s game to LSU on the road in the ACC/SEC Challenge. It wasn’t a loss that surprised me; it’s hard to win non-conference road games. Somehow, though, FSU finished with the 6th best point differential out of 14 ACC teams. That’s how poorly the ACC did in that challenge. And that game was very winnable, but a few things in the second half cost them.
LSU got whatever they wanted in the second half, shooting 16/28 from the floor and 10/15 from two-point range. FSU’s interior defense needs to be much better against NC State if they want to start 1-0 in ACC play. But they also need to force more turnovers. LSU turned it over just four times in the second half on Tuesday, which kept FSU from getting out in transition. That’s how the Seminoles usually operate and they weren’t good enough.
On the bright side, Malique Ewin is continuing to blossom as a premier player. His 17 points and 17 rebounds, including 11 offensive rebounds, is a statline not often seen from a Leonard Hamilton player. He kind of gives me DeMarcus Cousins vibes with his play, though Cousins was much more physical. But Cousins was surprisingly nimble on his feet and an exceptional passer for his size. Ewin has a lot of the same attributes.
This game could go down to Jamir Watkins, who didn’t have a great performance on Tuesday night: 15 points, 6/19 shooting, four fouls, and three turnovers. I still think the double-technical in the first half threw him off his game a little, and a good way to bounce back from that is to have a great road game in conference play.
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Projected Starters
NC State
G: Michael O’Connell
G: Marcus Hill
G: Jayden Taylor
F: Ben Middlebrooks
F: Brandon Huntley-Hatfield
Florida State
G: Chandler Jackson
G: Bostyn Holt
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin
Keys to the Game
Crash the Glass
NC State is a bad rebounding team and doesn’t have a lot of size. Brandon Huntley-Hatfield by himself is good on the offensive glass, but overall, this is a poor rebounding team, something FSU needs to take advantage of, especially on the offensive glass.
The Wolfpack are allowing an offensive rebound rate of 33.9%, one of the worst in the country. Florida State is coming off a game where they had 22 offensive rebounds for an offensive rebound rate of 44%. There’s no reason it can’t get close to that rate again in this game with their size advantage.
Transition Defense
NC State wants to run. In their first five games, all wins against below-average competition, they averaged 72.2 possessions per game. In the three games since against power conference opponents, all losses, they’ve averaged just 61 possessions. It’ll be tough for FSU to crash the offensive glass and still get back in transition, but it’s something they can do.
This also goes for Florida State’s offense, though. They have to beat NC State’s defense down the floor, as FSU’s halfcourt isn’t consistent enough to win games yet. Force steals, get out in transition, and make the quick baskets.
Jamir Watkins
Jamir Watkins hasn’t been the Jamir Watkins we’ve been used to seeing over the last few games. He hasn’t been as efficient hunting his shot, and when he has, it’s resulted in the 6/19 shooting performance we saw on Tuesday against LSU.
For Florida State to win road games in the ACC, Watkins has to be at his best. He wants to prove he’s worthy of being a first-round draft pick in a stacked 2025 NBA draft, that starts with beating NC State on Saturday.
Game Prediction
NC State is favored by 4.5 points with an over/under of 145.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
This is going to be a fun matchup, one that I’m excited to be at. Florida State has had a handle on how to beat Kevin Keatts for the most part, but NC State is going to play desperate after losing three straight games. I think the Wolfpack will start the game hot and potentially even with a big lead before FSU comes back and wins by a possession or two.
Florida State 76, NC State 72
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER
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