Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Hofstra Pride

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on ACCNX/ESPN+ from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Hofstra Pride Breakdown (4-0)

Don’t take a team named the “Hofstra Pride” lightly. This is a good basketball team that has beaten Seton Hall and UMass already this season (FSU plays UMASS this weekend). They’ve got a great guard trio and are led by a head coach who won a championship with the Spurs as a bench piece and came close to winning Sixth Man of the Year later in his career.

Speedy Claxton is now in his fourth season coaching at his alma mater and has gotten Hofstra to 20+ wins in every season, including the Colonial regular season title two years ago. He has consistently had good teams in Hempstead, New York, and this year is no different.

They’ve been able to play low-possession games with success against Seton Hall and UMass, and a fast-paced game against Iona. They can play different ways and win in different styles, which will be an interesting matchup against FSU.

There are three players you should familiarize yourself with heading into this game, and that’s their guard trio of Jean Aranguren, Cruz Davis, and Jaquan Sanders. These three combine for 50 of Hofstra’s 75 PPG.

Aranguren is leading them in three major statistical categories at 19 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 5.3 APG. Davis isn’t far behind at 16 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 4.8 APG. These two are both capable ball-handlers, which will make it tough for FSU’s usual press, where they try to cut a player off (they started doing this with Walter Clayton Jr. in the second half against UF). Both are good at driving into the teeth of the defense and spraying out to open shooters. Both are capable shooters as well (Aranguren 36% on 6.3 3PA, Davis 46.2% on 3.3 3PA).

Then there’s Sanders, who is shooting 42.4% from three-point range on more than EIGHT attempts per game. He’s an elite shooter who can pull it from well past NBA range, and someone FSU’s defense has to be aware of where he is at all times.

There’s not really anyone else to be scared of on this team. TJ Gadsden is a rebounding undersized forward, Silas Sunday is a seven-footer with bad footwork, Michael Graham is a fine starting center but doesn’t get many offensive opportunities, and KiJan Robinson can shoot a little bit, but he wouldn’t be my first (or second, or third) priority.

Hofstra has done a great job defending on the interior early, allowing teams to shoot just 39.6% from inside the arc, one of the best marks in the country. FSU likes to operate in the interior, so this will be something to watch.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (3-1)

There are a few things FSU needs to address from its loss to Florida. First, Malique Ewin needs to be more efficient. He’s as talented of a big as FSU has had with special footwork and passing, but he can’t have many more 4/13 games like he had against the Gators. Part of it is playing through contact and physicality, something he’ll be more comfortable with as the season goes along.

The Seminoles also need to take more advantage of the turnovers they force. Florida had 19 turnovers on Friday, but FSU only turned those into 16 points. When the offense is taking as long as it has to round into form, it’s important to take advantage of every turnover, something they just haven’t done at a high rate yet. They need to be scoring greater than 1.3 points per turnover forced to have the offensive output they need.

I did love what I saw from Daquan Davis as the Florida game progressed, as he realized he could beat their guards to the rim. The more confidence he gains, the better this team will be. He’s a good player.

Jamir Watkins’ free throws have been the big story through the first few games, as an 80% free throw shooter is now shooting 58% from the stripe. I believe he’ll get it turned around soon, but the team goes as he goes, and he needs to be at his best.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Chandler Jackson
G: Bostyn Holt
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Hofstra

G: Jean Aranguren
G: Cruz Davis
G: Jaquan Sanders
G: TJ Gadsden
F: Michael Graham

Keys to the Game

How Will FSU Handle Hofstra’s Guard Trio?

Hofstra has a tremendous three-headed monster at guard with Jean Aranguren, Cruz Davis, and Jaquan Sanders. Aranguren and Davis are the two creators, while Sanders is the lethal shooter, chucking up over eight triples per game. He’s more than willing to fire it from past NBA range, and Florida State has to be ready for his shot attempts while keeping the other two from being effective. There will surely be heavy ball pressure and FSU will want to force turnovers, but this is a good passing team, and we saw how Florida was able to beat FSU’s defense by passing the ball.

Drive and Kick Threes

A lot of Hofstra’s three-point attempts come on drive-and-kick opportunities, with Jean Aranguren and Cruz Davis each averaging around five assists per game. They’re talented playmakers and scorers who are willing to create for others and themselves. Those two have done a good job of driving into the teeth of the defense, drawing the defense down to the level of the ball, and spraying it out for open threes. FSU needs to be prepared for that.

This is something FSU needs to do on offense, too. Hofstra has had an elite two-point defense early, and the Seminoles will need to capitalize on open threes if they can pull the defense in.

Capitalize Off Turnovers

Florida State did a great job of turning the Gators over on Friday, forcing 19 turnovers for a turnover rate of 26.4%, but the Seminoles only had 16 points off of those turnovers, including just four on nine UF turnovers in the first half. Their half court offense isn’t good enough right now (and maybe won’t be all season) to win them games, so they have to take advantage of turnovers and get out in transition whenever possible.

Hofstra will turn it over, FSU shouldn’t have to worry about that. They’ve had a turnover rate north of 19% in each of their last three games and the Seminoles love forcing turnovers. They just have to finish those off on the other end.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 6.5 points with an over/under of 141.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Hofstra is a good team with a good guard trio; don’t let the name fool you. FSU will have its hands full, but I believe they’ll be able to tough out a win in the Tucker Center. Gimme the ‘Noles.

Florida State 70, Hofstra 66

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