Georgia (7-1) steamrolled Clemson 34-3 in the opener before getting pushed to the brink by Kentucky to open 3-0. However a disastrous interception-laden first-half for QB Carson Beck sunk their bid to defeat Alabama in Week 4. The Dawgs bounced back to snuff out Texas 30-15 while holding the Longhorns to just 29 rushing yards and overcoming another three interceptions from QB Carson Beck. They overcame a first half scare from Florida last week to finish off a 34-20 victory and are currently ranked 3rd nationally in SP+. Georgia still has to contend with @Ole Miss and Tennessee the next two games before their path to the CFP Playoff is complete.
Ole Miss (7-2) was rolling right along at a dominant 4-0 against a group of lower-echelon non-conference opponents before they ran into a Kentucky team that held the ball for 40 minutes and grinded Ole Miss down for a 20-17 loss. Sound familiar? Their second loss came courtesy of @LSU in a dramatic 29-26 Overtime heartbreaker where Ole Miss held a 7-point lead before Garrett Nussmeier led a 13-play, 75-yard drive to tie the game in regulation. Mississippi likely needs to sweep their last three games versus UGA/@Florida/Miss State to make the CFP Playoff, with SP+ estimating their current probability at 39.8%.
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Game Details and How to watch Georgia @ Ole Miss
· Date: Saturday, November 9, 2024
· Time: 3:30 PM EST
· Site: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
· City: Oxford, MS
· TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+
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Game odds for Georgia @ Ole Miss
The latest odds as of Friday morning courtesy of BetMGM:
The Georgia line opened in the early-look markets at Georgia -7, but that has dramatically readjusted to the current -2.5 across the board. Best prices for the Moneyline are -132 for UGA and +126 for the Rebels. The game total hadn’t budged much from the 54.5 open, though we’re seeing recent moves to 55 at some places.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“I have a feeling that a combination of Ole Miss’ 7th ranked D on one side and Georgia’s #7 ranked defense on the other, along with a few key injuries lingering for each team’s offense, could lead to a suppressed scoring output. I lean Under 54.5 points, but i’m not strong on it.”
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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
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Ohio State +450 to +350
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Miami +1800 to +1100
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Indiana +5000 to +3500
Biggest Liabilities
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Ohio State
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Tennessee
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Colorado
Quarterback matchup for Georgia @ Ole Miss
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Georgia: Heading into the season QB Carson Beck led all returning FBS signal callers with 3,949 passing yards and a 2nd ranked 91.5 PFF offensive grade. He emerged as a Heisman front-runner who opened at 4-to-1 odds to win college football’s most coveted prize, but the quality of his play has cratered with Beck throwing at least two interceptions in four of the last five games. Though his 78th% PFF offensive grade and 11 interceptions are concerning, Beck has led Georgia to 30+ points in all but one of their games and will be heavily relied upon with RB Travis Etienne banged up.
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Ole Miss: QB Jaxson Dart followed HC Lane Kiffin from USC to Oxford, MS where he has started 35 games and accounted for a total of 9,533 passing yards and 87 touchdowns. He is in the midst of another standout campaign averaging a career-highs with a 71.6% completion rate, 355 passing yards per game, 11.6 yards per attempt and 254 rushing yards. Ole Miss ranks 3rd in EPA/dropback and 7th in passing success rate while playing the 39th toughest schedule. His 92.5 PFF passing grade leads the nation, making the Beck vs. Dart matchup a must-watch affair this Saturday.
Betting trends & recent stats
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Carson Beck averages 36.2 pass attempts per game this season, 2nd-highest of qualified SEC Quarterbacks. Ole Miss’s defense has faced an average of 35.4 pass attempts per game this season, the highest among SEC defenses.
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Georgia’s offensive line leads the nation with an 18.1% pressure rate allowed and ranks 17th in sack rate (3.1%). However they’re also averaging 4.1 penalties a game that ranks 93rd overall.
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Ole Miss’ primary offensive weapon, WR Tre Harris, hasn’t seen the field since October 12th and is considered doubtful to play against UGA.
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The Ole Miss defensive line is terrorizing opposing quarterbacks, averaging a 34.7% (3rd in FBS) pressure rate and 11% sacks per dropback (2nd).
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