Georgia (7-2) steamrolled Clemson 34-3 in the opener before winning a coin-flip 13-12 slog over Kentucky to open 3-0. A catastrophic, interception-laden first half for QB Carson Beck led to their first defeat at the hands of Alabama in Week 4. Fortunately, the Dawgs bounced back to extinguish Texas in Austin 30-15, despite another three-interception performance by QB Carson Beck. Two weeks ago, they overcame a first half scare from Florida for a 34-20 victory, which was a harbinger for last week’s embarrassing 28-10 loss to @Ole Miss. Their offense lacks explosion, ranking 99th in yards per successful rush (8.9 yards) and 73rd in yards per successful dropback (14.6 yards), and has committed 15 turnovers with a 3.6% interception rate (102nd). A loss to Tennessee would sink UGA’s CFP Playoff hopes, so they hope to have injured RB Trevor Etienne back up to speed after being limited the last two games.
Tennessee (8-1) obliterated their first three non-conference opponents by a combined score of 191-13. That is not a misprint. Their lone misstep occurred in Week 4 when @Arkansas backup QB Malachi Singleton ran for an 11-yard touchdown with 1:11 remaining in the game to outlast UT 19-17. They churned out a pair of one-score wins over Florida and most notably Alabama, which has been their signature win to this point. Tennessee’s offense has cleared 28 points just once in SEC play, ranking 23rd in EPA/rush and 45th in EPA/dropback. Defensively they rank 3rd overall in SP+ and boast arguably the best run D in the nation, averaging a 28% stuff rate (2nd) and 33.6% rushing success rate (4th).
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Game details and how to watch Tennessee @ Georgia
· Date: Saturday, November 16, 2024
· Time: 7:30 PM EST
· Site: Sanford Stadium
· City: Athens, GA
· TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+
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Game odds for Tennessee @ Georgia
The latest odds as of Thursday:
The Georgia line opened at a massive Georgia -17.5, but that has dramatically readjusted to the current -10.5 with unsubstantiated reports of Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava allegedly being on track to play. Best prices for the Moneyline are -360 for UGA and +335 for the Vols. The game total has ticked down from the 49 open to a low of 47.5 at time of publishing.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Georgia is 6-3 to the Under so far this year and has failed to clear the 48.5 points mark against Ole Miss, Texas, Auburn, Kentucky and Clemson. The only competitive game that went under was the Carson Beck first half meltdown against Alabama. Tennessee has gone Under 48.5 points in every SEC game so far, so I’m going to listen to the trends and play the UNDER 48.5 game total. ”
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Quarterback matchup for Tennessee @ Georgia
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Georgia: Heading into the season QB Carson Beck led all returning FBS signal callers with 3,949 passing yards and a 2nd ranked 91.5 PFF offensive grade. He emerged as a Heisman front-runner who opened at 4-to-1 odds to win college football’s most coveted prize, but the quality of his play has cratered with Beck throwing nine interceptions in the last four games. His 76th% PFF offensive grade and 12 interceptions are concerning, as is Beck’s dirt-low 28th% passing grade under pressure with a 35% completion rate.
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Tennessee: QB Nico Iamaleava arrived on campus last year as a ballyhooed five-star recruit with a premium athletic profile. After serving a one-year apprenticeship, he has completed 65% of his throws for 1,880 yards and an 11-to-4 ratio as UT’s starting quarterback. While his 82nd% passing grade is a very credible mark, HC Josh Heupel has protected Nico by having him attempt 30+ passes just once this season. Iamaleava’s 11.7 yards per attempt ranks third nationally, proving that he isn’t afraid to be aggressive and take shots down the field. Unfortunately, Iamaleava is questionable to play due to a concussion sustained last weekend against Mississippi State. Fifth-year QB Gaston Moore would draw the start in his absence.
Betting trends & recent stats
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Georgia’s offense has thrown for 2,578 passing yards in 9 games this season, tied for 16th-best among FBS offenses. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 171.6 passing yards per game this season, which ranks 15th-best among FBS defenses.
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Georgia’s offensive line ranks 2nd in the nation with a 20.9% pressure rate allowed and 8th with a 3.8% blown run block rate. However, they also rank 94th allowing a 22.7% sacks-per-pressure rate and 3.9 penalties a game, which ranks 79th overall.
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Tennessee has tackled opponents for a loss on 68-of-322 rushing attempts this year, good for a 21% TFL rate that ranks 2nd-best in the SEC. Ole Miss leads the conference at 26.5%.
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Despite HC Heupel’s reputation for building high-flying offenses, UT is running the ball at well above average rates on both standard downs (63.4% = 30th) and passing downs (49.2% = 7th).
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
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Ohio State +350 to +300
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Texas +550 to +450
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Ole Miss +3500 to +1000
Highest Ticket%
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Ohio State 14.0%
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Texas 11.5%
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Georgia 10.6%
Highest Handle%
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Ohio State 17.7%
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Georgia 16.3%
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Texas 11.4%
Biggest Liabilities
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Colorado
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Ohio State
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Tennessee
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