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Gold might be hitting record highs, but silver is starting to turn investors’ heads once again.
The metal — at once precious and industrial — has surged for four straight days, poking above $31 per ounce for the first time since July.
While the 10% gain this week is already the best since the early pandemic days of August 2020 — and is enough to secure a two-month high — investors likely have their sights set much higher.
There are a few reasons why the second-place metal has potential. First, silver has slightly outperformed gold this year, but gold prices are still elevated with respect to silver on a historical basis when looking at the so-called gold-silver ratio.
When the multiple of gold to silver reaches 80, many investors will look for buying opportunities in silver, betting that the ratio will mean revert. Currently, it stands at 84 but was above 90 only weeks ago as gold was surging. According to DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas, the historical average of the ratio since 1990 is 70, which means silver has room to run long-term versus gold.
Technical analysis of silver prices also reveals long-term pent-up bullish potential, and the two looming peaks in silver’s history at about $50 per ounce could act as magnets for a breakout.
Silver prices surged and shook the investing world in 1980 when Nelson Bunker Hunt, William Herbert Hunt, and Lamar Hunt attempted to corner the market on silver. The Hunt Brothers’ market manipulation scheme succeeded in inflating prices by 700% after they acquired about one-third of the world’s silver supply.
The trade ended in tears for the brothers, but the price target had been set.
After plummeting to $3 in the 1990s, silver mounted another rally as the global financial crisis kicked into high gear in the late oughts.
Amid the QE 1 and 2 boom years, silver futures hit another peak just shy of $50 per ounce in April 2011 — an appreciation of nearly 170% over the prior year.
Since that second trip to $50, the price again fell and has rallied in fits and starts. The pandemic sparked a rally in 2020 that took silver to $30, and this year, it’s managed to cross the $32 mark.
According to Goldman Sachs, $32 is the big level to watch for silver, which the bank said is “on the verge of a multi-month breakout.” The bank also noted that options on the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) had one of the biggest volume days in years last Friday.
The bank cited Federal Reserve monetary policy on the verge of its first rate cut in years. But the real appeal may lie with the evolving demand for artificial intelligence, as silver is critical for chip fabrication. Silver investors will be closely monitoring how chip demand evolves this earnings season.
Yet another market narrative about Fed rates and AI.
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