(Bloomberg) — Investors should be prepared for US market volatility and lower long-term returns on stocks whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the Nov. 5 presidential election, money managers said at a Bloomberg event in Los Angeles.
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Todd Morgan, chairman of Bel Air Investment Advisors, which manages $11.5 billion for high-net-worth investors, said the current investment climate resembles the Roaring ’20s, with a strong economy and societal change in the wake of a pandemic.
If Harris is elected and Democrats take control of both the White House and Congress, they are likely to raise taxes, which could lead to a selloff before the year ends, Morgan said. A Trump win and Republican sweep could ignite “animal spirits,” fueling a broad market rally, but Morgan warned that such a scenario could increase the deficit and drive up inflation.
“As long as we have a divided Congress between Democrats and Republicans, we’re all going to be OK,” said Morgan, who co-hosted the panel on Wednesday called “Where to Put Your Money Post-Election” with Bloomberg’s US Economist Stuart Paul.
A survey of swing-state voters released Wednesday by Bloomberg News/Morning Consult found the race too close to call. Polls list the economy as a top voter concern again this election cycle, with the candidates’ potential impact on investments a key consideration.
The S&P 500 Index has gained roughly 50% since President Joe Biden was inaugurated in January 2021, similar to gains during an equivalent period of Trump’s presidential term. Stocks are unlikely to sustain the performance as investors turn to other assets, including bonds, for better returns, Goldman Sachs strategists predicted this week.
Stocks and other assets have soared to unprecedented valuations, which makes high returns less likely in coming years no matter who wins the election, according to Katie Koch, chief executive officer of TCW Group Inc.
Koch, who’s LA-based firm oversees about $200 billion, cited Warren Buffett’s former partner, the late Charlie Munger, who advocated investors keep some powder dry for the right opportunity.
“Having some liquidity to lean in and take advantage of a dislocation is probably wise,“ Koch said. “Something that we are thinking a lot about in our portfolios is having dry powder and really being cautious about everything being priced for perfection.”
