The Knicks are making a pattern of pulling off surprise blockbuster deals, stunning the basketball world late Friday night by trading Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, a protected Detroit first-round pick and salary filler for Karl-Anthony Towns.
The seven-foot knockdown shooter is a bold acquisition at a position of need for New York, but cost them the pillar of their rebuild under Leon Rose and Tom Thibodeau, along with one of the most valuable shooters in the league.
We won’t know the full ramifications of this trade for months, or maybe years, but can do our best to objectively grade it at this point in time. Did the Knicks just set themselves up for a championship run, or fumble a contender via the second coming of the Andrea Bargnani trade?
The pros of trading for Towns
Avoids the Randle contract situation
2024-25 was the last guaranteed year on Randle’s contract, and despite landing extensions with Jalen Brunson and Thibodeau, the Knicks couldn’t make headway with the big power forward.
This was a quiet but large question mark going into this pivotal season – was New York ready to go all-in with a number two they weren’t fully invested in, and would Randle make the sacrifices necessary with a potential free agency coming up?
Instead of worrying about Randle’s individual trade value, the need for midseason trade, a new injury popping up, possibly losing him for nothing or any other creeping complications, New York nipped this entire situation in the bud by dealing him ahead of the season. Towns, for good or bad, is locked in on his contract for the next three years.
The basketball argument
Towns is a historically great shooter out of the front-court, playing both positions with lots of postseason reps under his belt. He’s undoubtedly the best player in this deal to most national NBA insiders, though, at their respective peaks Randle has a case.
Adding Towns allows for a definitive five-out, extremely well-spaced offense that Knicks fans only hoped Randle at the center could bring out. Towns is a career 39.8 percent three-point shooter on nearly 2,500 attempts in the regular season, and hit 41.6 percent of his tries last year.
In theory, he can also pick up some of the things dropped when New York lost Isaiah Hartenstein this summer. Though far from an elite passer, he can be a top-of-the-floor hub for Brunson and co. to work off and a threat in the short roll when he gets trapped.
He immediately addresses a position of need, with the Knicks center rotation previously boasting an injured Mitchell Robinson, Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims. Towns can man the five in spaced-out lineups and slide down a position in favor of traditional rim protection, especially once Robinson gets healthy.
Towns’s most notable deficiencies are balanced out by this Knicks roster as well. Having two All-NBA Defensive wings and high-motor dirty-work bigs next to him should cover up his weaknesses defensively and on the glass.
In a hypothetical match-up with the defending champion Boston Celtics, the Knicks now have their answer with Towns. Being able to go stretch five for stretch five with a ton of switchability in the rest of the lineup makes them a worthy challenge.
Finally, nearly every time Rose has made an audacious transaction or decision it’s turned out correct. He’s earned himself a lot of benefit of the doubt, and could be onto something here naysayers are missing.
The cons of trading for Towns
A whole new team
New York is going to have a real adjustment period to start this new season. This wasn’t just a talent upgrade – the Knicks have fundamentally changed their team’s identity and chemistry.
For the past year and a half, New York was the inefficient team that would grind opponents down on the boards and defensively to make up for it. They’ve flipped that dynamic in pursuit of a league-best offense that will be challenged defensively and on the glass.
Beyond it being a radical shift, it may not be the right one. Two elite defensive wings (with just two good ones as backup) may not be enough to cover for a Brunson-Towns defensive tandem.
Those second-chance opportunities will take a major hit with Towns at the five. For reference, all four Knicks centers in 2023-24 had higher offensive rebounding rates than Towns had in a season since 2019.
Just the general toughness and bludgeoning impact of playing the Knicks will be softened by bringing in Towns. He’s not known for having that edge to him and struggles to overpower guys half his size.
Randle had some growing pains dealing with the abrasive New York media and fanbase, but seemingly got past it the last couple of seasons. This will be a new challenge for Towns – how does he react when fans call for his head after his first slump?
In acquiring him, the Knicks broke up their Villanova connection, as well as shipping off one of two guys that were on the team since that first Thibodeau season. That’s a lot of chemistry and institutional knowledge out the door, which could have downstream impacts on the culture and feel of the team.
The Knicks are also banking on a positive Towns-Thibodeau relationship, after the two were openly sour on each other during their time spent in Minnesota. Supposedly that’s been left in the past, but Towns hasn’t fundamentally changed as a player, and Thibodeau hasn’t fundamentally changed as a coach.
The question that may linger beyond all of these is – what would the Knicks have looked like if they didn’t do this trade? Was there some real opportunity cost there of waiting, seeing, and pivoting at the trade deadline if they needed to?
Flexibility and depth
Up to this point, the Knicks have maintained their cap sheet with care and precision, emphasizing flexibility so they could always pivot or improve. While Randle’s possible departure may have been a time bomb they wanted to avoid, it cost them a lot of maneuverability to do so.
Towns is earning $49 million this season, $53 million next, then $57 million and finally has a player option for $61 million in his age 32 season. Over half their cap space is now dedicated to Towns and Anunoby, two non-superstars they haven’t seen play together with tricky injury histories.
They were coming up on the second apron anyway with Bridges needing an extension, but instead of pushing a decision down the road, they essentially locked themselves into this core. A similar critique was levied when they dealt for Anunoby, and that’s working out well, but the jury remains out on Towns.
In trading two rotation pieces for one, not only did the Knicks sacrifice flexibility, but also depth. Injuries and the lack of talent to make up for them sunk New York’s run last season, and while they made offseason moves to try and correct that, this one sets them back in this regard.
Their key reserves are now one of Josh Hart or Mitchell Robinson, Miles McBride, Precious Achiuwa and a laundry list of hopeful-contributors.
The signings of Landry Shamet and Marcus Morris are re-contextualized now and make a lot more sense, but if this championship run is riding on those two being ready to step up in a 2025 playoff series, it’s not ideal.
Is Towns actually the guy?
If Towns is the best player in this trade, it’s only by a slim margin, and the Knicks gave up a whole valuable second player in pursuit of him. If he’s a better fit than Randle, it’s only in one specific context – shooting the basketball.
While the offense will be more spread out for Brunson, it’ll remain dependent on his on-ball creation, much more so than with Randle. As talented as Towns is offensively, he’s maximized on quick attacks and spot up looks, as opposed to Randle’s self-creation style that allowed for Brunson to get a break.
When he was in a groove, Randle would automatically demand a second defender, and leverage his paint touches into passes out to open teammates. He’s averaged an assist rate of 23.8 percent as a Knick, while Towns hasn’t eclipsed that number in a single season of his career.
Towns isn’t a bad passer, but is much more limited as one outside of set plays. He barely managed a positive assist-to-turnover ratio last year while Randle’s is consistently well into positive territory.
Towns is an efficient one-on-one scorer, but ultimately this trade will require big steps up offensively from Bridges and Anunoby to not put too much burden on Brunson.
Minnesota struggled in the playoffs when opponents would put smaller wings on Towns and force them to take advantage – if they tried that with Randle those wings would leave on stretchers.
Speaking of the postseason, much of the Towns-over-Randle argument rests on the latter’s postseason struggles. A fair critique given his 34.4 percent career shooting in two appearances, however Towns hasn’t exactly been a dominant playoff guy either.
Towns has averaged four fouls per-36 minutes in his last three postseasons, constantly getting himself into foul trouble. He’s a career 35 percent shooter from deep in the Playoffs – his strongest quality otherwise.
His big impact moments can be counted on one hand, as that lack of offense force appears in the postseason as well. For reference, DiVincenzo had two 30-point playoff games in his lone postseason run for New York, while Towns has had one in his entire career.
This is before digging into Towns defensively. He’s looked better next to perennial Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, but without him Minnesota falls apart on that end.
The Timberwolves most played lineups featuring Towns and no Gobert in 2023-24 got worked defensively and spanked by opponents. They may not have included Anunoby and Bridges, but were plenty deep on the wings themselves.
They were also pretty consistently out-rebounded, again something Hart and Achiuwa can make up for, but to what degree? Fans may point to the Thibodeau effect in these instances, but he works best with guys that are already proficient and willing in these facets of the game, and his first go-around with Towns was a disaster.
There’s also a fair bit of injury concern as well. After playing nearly every game of his first four seasons, Towns has appeared in: 35 games, 50 games, 74 games, 29 games and 62 games since.
Grading the trade
At face value, Rose did it again. The Knicks got the best player in the deal, and one that can maximize their star point guard while reconfiguring the team to better match up with the Celtics.
However, dig a little deeper and the cracks start to show. This trade is a major gamble, perhaps the first that may go awry for this front office.
New York seemed to find real success building a Thibodeau-inspired roster, capitalizing on that further with last year’s Anunoby trade and this summer’s Bridges trade.
Some may consider this just another big talent play, but stylistically it’s their most striking swing in an opposite direction since picking up Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier.
It could pay off, but dramatically increases their calamity chances in the meantime.
