How real of a Heisman contender is Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart?
The senior is now the No. 5 favorite for the Heisman at BetMGM at +2000 after he threw six touchdowns in the Rebels’ blowout win over Arkansas in Week 10. Dart accounted for two-thirds of Ole Miss’ scores in the 63-31 win as he was 25-of-31 passing for 515 yards. Yes, he threw as many incompletions as he did touchdown passes.
It was a touchdown explosion from a player who hadn’t been responsible for all that many scores in recent weeks. Since throwing for four touchdowns in Ole Miss’ win over Georgia Southern on Sept. 21, Dart had thrown just three TDs over the Rebels’ last four games. It’s not a coincidence that his lack of TD passes had coincided with Ole Miss’ 2-2 record in that stretch, either. Ole Miss is fourth in the country in scoring just over 42 points per game, but the win over Arkansas was the first time the Rebels had scored over 27 in an SEC game this season.
The prolific game against Arkansas couldn’t have come at a better time to buoy the Ole Miss fan base’s hopes, either. Saturday’s home game against Georgia is a must win.
At 7-2, and 3-2 in the SEC, the Rebels have no margin for error in both the SEC title race and the push for the College Football Playoff. And they also don’t have another big game remaining. After an off week in Week 12, Ole Miss plays Florida and Mississippi State to end the season.
If Ole Miss is going to contend for the playoff, it needs to beat Georgia. And if Dart is going to truly contend for the Heisman, he needs to have a big game as Ole Miss beats Georgia.
Dart’s season stats are very good. He leads the country in passing yards at 3,210, though he’s played one more game than a lot of his peers. However, he’s not just racking up those yards via quantity. He’s also tops in the country with 11.6 yards per passing attempt. Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke is second at 10.5 yards per pass. No other QB is in double figures.
However, it’s hard to see how Dart wins the Heisman without Ole Miss making the playoff or perhaps even making the SEC title game. Yes, Jayden Daniels won the Heisman a season ago while LSU went 9-3 and didn’t sniff the playoff, but Dart doesn’t have the rushing stats that Daniels did. Just like last season, Dart is averaging 3.3 yards a carry after sacks are factored in and he’s only rushed for three TDs. He’s currently tied for 10th among all players in total touchdowns. Daniels finished second in 2023 and averaged the most scores per game of any player.
A win over Georgia on Saturday puts Dart further into the Heisman conversation. But it still may not be enough to make him more than a trivial finalist at best.
Here are our four other players to watch in Week 11:
Colorado DB/WR Travis Hunter (+175): Hunter has become the nominal favorite over Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel as Colorado is now in the thick of the Big 12 title race thanks to losses by Kansas State and Iowa State in Week 10. As long as Hunter stays healthy, it’ll be a surprise if he’s not a Heisman finalist.
Miami QB Cam Ward (+200): Ward’s odds are ahead of Gabriel’s as he has powered a Miami team that has defensive deficiencies that Oregon does not. Ward leads the country with 29 passing TDs and should add a few to that total against Georgia Tech on Saturday.
Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel (+300): Is Saturday night a chance for Gabriel to pad his stats? The Ducks are 25-point favorites at home against Maryland. The Terrapins just gave up 48 points to Minnesota and allowed 37 to Northwestern.
Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty (+500): Jeanty finally has a chance to play in prime time on network television on Saturday. Yeah, Boise State’s home game vs. Nevada is at the same time as Alabama’s trip to LSU, but at least Jeanty will be on Fox at a time when most college football fans are awake.
