NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — The western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico are being closely monitored for potential tropical development next week.
Tropical Depression Likely to Form
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea within the next few days. Gradual development of this system is anticipated, with a tropical depression likely forming as it slowly moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week.
The chance of formation within the next 48 hours is low, near 0 percent, but the chance of formation over the next 7 days is high, at 70 percent.
Disagreement Among Forecast Models
Some forecast models predict a strong tropical system making landfall along the Gulf Coast toward the end of the month, and these predictions have been circulating widely on social media.
However, it’s important to remember that model projections are likely to fluctuate significantly between different models and from one update to the next until the system actually begins to form. Because of this uncertainty, there is currently little to no confidence in any specific outcome at this time.
What is the Central American Gyre?
The Central American Gyre (CAG) is a large, slow-rotating area of low pressure that forms over Central America and the surrounding waters of the western Caribbean and eastern Pacific. It typically develops during the late spring and again in the early fall, during the Atlantic hurricane season. It is known for producing widespread thunderstorms and heavy rain, sometimes leading to flooding and landslides in the region.
The CAG can act as a “seed” for development of tropical systems by creating areas of enhanced thunderstorm activity and rotation. Under favorable conditions such as warm ocean temperatures, low wind shear, and abundant moisture, these areas can develop into tropical depressions or storms.
Depending on steering currents, any system that forms within the gyre can move into the Atlantic or Pacific, making the CAG a key feature to monitor for potential tropical cyclone formation, especially from late May through June and from late September through October.
Stay Updated
Be sure to monitor forecasts from official sources like the National Hurricane Center and trusted media outlets over the next few days. Now is a good time to review hurricane preparedness plans and refresh supplies, but there is no immediate concern for Gulf Coast residents.
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