PANAMA CITY BEACH — Wednesday morning was gloomy with overcast conditions in Bay County. The weather in Northwest Florida remains mostly calm as forecasters track Invest 99L in the Caribbean.
The National Weather Service forecasts a high near 79 today with a low near 71 later tonight. Wind gusts of up to 25 mph are predicted as partly sunny skies stay in place throughout the day. Wednesday evening has a 50% chance of showers continuing into Thursday morning.
Weather is forecast to clear up by Friday, with clear skies heading into the weekend.
Temperatures are predicted to trend downward throughout the week as a cold front approaches the area, with new lows emerging in the 50s and highs in the low 70s. The NWS forecasting office out of Tallahassee said that despite the temperatures dipping, they’re still abnormally high for this time of year.
There’s a rip current statement from the NWS in effect until Friday morning. The statement has been extended over the past several days. Officials advise swimmers to remain cautious and familiarize themselves with what to do if caught in a rip tide. Bay County had single red flags flying on Tuesday.
Potential Tropical Storm Sara
The developing cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the Caribbean now has a name. The National Hurricane Center is tracking Invest99L as it moves over the central Caribbean Sea and gives the tropical rainstorm a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next two days.
AccuWeather forecasters say it’s likely going to be named Tropical Storm Sara, and could potentially threaten Florida as a major hurricane next week.
“The potential exists for the rainstorm to intensify into a hurricane as early as Friday morning,” AccuWeather forecasters said. “Further intensification is expected after that, and a Category 3 major hurricane (maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater) is likely to be churning in the western Caribbean this weekend.”
“We’ll likely be dealing with a hurricane as we head into this weekend. There is increasing confidence that a tropical storm will develop in the central to western Caribbean later this week,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in an email release. “We could be dealing with a storm that rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane in these very conducive conditions. The atmosphere is primed for development.”
The wave is on course to approach the same region of warm water that produced hurricanes Rafael, Milton and Helene. What happens next depends on the position of a dome of high pressure along the southern Atlantic coast.
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If the high pressure stays where it is, it will likely steer the storm into Central America or southeastern Mexico later this weekend to next week, AccuWeather said.
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If the dome of high pressure moves away or weakens, it could allow steering breezes to guide the storm toward the Florida Keys and South Florida or along the Gulf coast.
DaSilva said the speed of development and track early on could affect landfall and direct impacts.
“Not only does this have a significant chance of becoming a hurricane, but it may become a major hurricane very quickly,” he said.
Meanwhile, remnants of Rafael are expected to merge with a cold front moving over the U.S. Wednesday and Thursday and bring heavy rain to Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, and the tip of the Florida Panhandle. The northern Gulf Coast, including Florida, can expect high surf and dangerous rip currents.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest99L
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The next named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season would be Sara.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 7 a.m. EST Wednesday, Nov. 13:
Spaghetti models for Invest99L, future Tropical Storm Sara
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest99L
What to know about Invest99L
Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99): A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 90 percent.
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Formation chance through seven days: high, 90 percent.
How will Invest99L affect Florida?
It’s too soon to tell if it will, although some models suggest it could curve up and hit the state.
Storm-killing wind shear will initially tend to prevent the northward movement of any budding feature in the Caribbean Sea, AccuWeather said. “However, the natural blocking mechanism could dissolve during the third week of the month and allow any tropical storm to move northward, in which case interests in South Florida and the Keys may need to stay vigilant,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
National Hurricane Center map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
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(This story was updated with new information.)
This article originally appeared on The News Herald: Hurricane Sara ahead? What do the models show for Bay County, Florida?
