In Roob’s Observations: A concerning trend with Eagles GM Howie Roseman

In Roob’s Observations: A concerning trend with Eagles GM Howie Roseman originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

A concerning trend for Howie Roseman, an insane Rich Kotite stat and the real issue with Dallas Goedert.

Here’s our Week 3 edition of Roob’s 10 Random Eagles Observations!

1. Mekhi Becton looks like a steal as a right guard. And Saquon Barkley – despite the drop – looks like a stroke of brilliance. But Howie Roseman’s big-ticket moves on defense over the last few years are starting to look ominously bad. First-round picks for Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith – high 1^st-round picks for Davis and Carter – don’t look so promising at the moment. Carter had that dominating stretch early last year and I still believe he’ll be a great player, but none of them have lived up to where they were picked so far and it’s fair to wonder when they will. Devin White, penciled in as a starting linebacker, wasn’t even active Monday night. Bryce Huff hasn’t gotten close to an opposing quarterback for $51 million. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson has the 2^nd-most missed tackles of any NFL safety (behind former Eagle Marcus Epps) and is hurt again. Zack Baun had a couple sacks in the opener but has the 3^rd-most missed tackles of any NFL linebacker. Vaunted 3^rd-round pick Nakobe Dean has the 2^nd-lowest Pro Football Focus grade among off-ball linebackers (ahead of only former teammate Kyzir White of the Cards). Quinyon Mitchell looks very promising, but overall when you look at why the Eagles have had one of the worst defenses in the NFL through two weeks, you have to look squarely at a bunch of Roseman’s moves. It’s still early, and the Eagles are on their third defensive coordinator in the span of eight games and that’s not ideal, and we knew it was going to take a while for all the new pieces to fit together in a new scheme. There’s still time for any or all of these guys to turn things around. But no sacks by an edge? One of the worst opponents’ rushing averages in NFL history? One takeaway? Nobody is making plays, and that’s concerning. You can’t keep losing quality defensive players – Javon Hargrave, Haason Reddick, Fletcher Cox, T.J. Edwards, soon to be B.G. – and not replacing them. Especially considering the assets Roseman used to build this defense. Howie’s track record over the years is very good. Two Super Bowl appearances with different coaches and quarterbacks, six playoff trips in the last seven years, just three losing seasons since he became GM in 2010. But at least so far, most of his recent high-profile defensive moves are looking awfully shaky.

2. Thomas Booker has played 17 snaps and has as many solo tackles as every other Eagles interior defensive lineman combined in 245 snaps:

Thomas Booker: 3 tackles, 17 snaps

Milton Williams: 2 tackles, 53 snaps

Jordan Davis: 1 tackle, 64 snaps

Jalen Carter: 0 tackles, 97 snaps

Moro Ojomo: 0 tackles, 31 snaps

3. I’m still convinced this has a chance to be one of the best Eagles offenses ever. If they can eliminate the turnovers, they’re going to be hard to stop once they’re at full strength. They’ve got a talented play caller in Kellen Moore, the offensive line has been the one area on the entire team that’s been exceptional so far, we know they have two elite WRs and a big-time running back. They’ve got to get Dallas Goedert going, but overall I feel like Jalen Hurts has done some really good things in both games when he’s not turning the ball over. Even with all the turnovers, the Eagles are averaging 27.5 points per game – 5^th-highest in the league. They’re one of seven teams that’s scored on at least half their possessions, and on the 15 drives where they haven’t turned the ball over they’ve scored 67 percent of the time – 3^rd-highest in the league. If they can just hang onto the dang ball they’re going to average over 30 points, something they haven’t done in 76 years.

4. Fourteen of the last 17 times the Eagles have been 1-1, they’ve reached the playoffs – 1995, 1996, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021. The only times they opened 1-1 and missed the playoffs since 1995 are 1997 (6-9-1), 2005 (6-10) and 2011 (8-8). So only twice the last 17 times when they were 1-1 did they finish with a losing record.

5. In the last 25 years, there have been 183 wide receivers drafted in the first or second round who’ve played in at least 40 games. Of those 183, only 19 have averaged 20 yards per game or less. Freddie Mitchell ranks 165^th of those 183 at 20 yards per game, Jalen Reagor is 170^th at 16.7 and J.J. Arcega is 182^nd at 7.3. The Eagles are the only team to draft three receivers in the first or second round over the last 25 years who’ve averaged 20 yards per game or less in their career.

6A. During the 51-year span from 1950 through 2000 Rich Kotite was the only Eagles head coach to win a road playoff game.

6B. That win – in 1992 vs. the Saints at the Superdome – featured one of the greatest fourth quarters in NFL history. Going into the fourth quarter, the Saints led 20-10, but the Eagles proceeded to score 26 points in the span of 8 minutes and 20 seconds on a Randall Cunningham 35-yard TD pass to Fred Barnett, Heath Sherman’s six-yard TD run, a Reggie White end zone sack of Bobby Hebert for a safety, a short Roger Ruzek field goal and Eric Allen’s 18-yard pick-6. The Eagles’ 26-point margin is the 2^nd-largest in NFL history in a postseason fourth quarter (the Giants outscored the Bears 26-0 in a 30-13 win at the Polo Grounds in 1934), and the 26 points are also 2^nd-most ever in a postseason fourth quarter. Teams leading by 10 or more points going into the fourth quarter of a playoff game are 315-18, and at home they’re 211-5. Since the Eagles in 1992, the only team to win after trailing by double digits in the fourth quarter of a playoff game on the road is the 2017 Titans, who beat the Andy Reid Chiefs 22-21 behind quarterback Marcus Mariota after trailing 21-10 early in the fourth quarter (and 21-3 in the third quarter).

7. Nolan Smith has one sack in 19 games. In his first 19 career games, Mike Mamula had eight sacks, Derek Barnett had 7 ½ and Jerome McDougle had two. Trent Cole, a 5^th-round pick, had 10.

8A. There’s been a lot of talk about why Dallas Goedert hasn’t been more involved in the offense, especially with A.J. Brown out. Actually, he has been pretty involved – his nine targets so far are 9^th-most of any NFL tight end and put him on pace for 77 targets, which would be only 10 shy of his career high of 87 in 2019. The real issue is the depth of those targets. Goedert’s average depth of target is just 3.8 yards, which puts him 29^thof 42 tight ends who’ve been targeted at least four times. His average depth of target from 2019 through 2023 was nearly double that (6.8 yards, 42^nd of 92 with 50 targets). That explains why Goedert is averaging just 9.9 yards per catch, which ranks 18^th among tight ends with at least four targets and is well below his career average of 11.7. Goedert has 40 career catches of at least 22 yards but none this year. I believe Goedert is still a top-5 tight end in the NFL. I really do. Since 2021, he has the 5^th-most yards of any NFL tight end. With his speed, athleticism, toughness and ability to bowl people over after the catch, he’s an elite weapon. Kellen Moore and Jalen Hurts just have to start using him as one.

8B. Goedert’s former teammate, Zach Ertz, had four catches for 62 yards in the Commanders’ win over the Giants Sunday. The four catches give him 716 in his 12-year career and within three of Jimmy Graham, whose 719 catches are 7^th-most in history by a tight end. Once Ertz passes Graham, next on the all-time list is Greg Olsen in sixth place with 742. The 33-year-old Ertz’s 62 yards were his most in two years, since he had 70 for the Cards in Seattle in October 2022.

9. Another area of concern for the Eagles through two games is penalties. They’ve been cited 16 times (not including four that offset or were declined), 8^th-most in the league so far, and allowed five penalty first downs, 5^th-most. That includes four illegal man down fields (three by Cam Jurgens). The Eagles aren’t good enough to get away with a lack of discipline. They’ve got to clean up the sloppy penalties like illegal man downfield, delay of game (twice), illegal formation (twice) and two many men on the field (once). They’ve got to stop helping the other team out with free yards.

10. For a team whose coach is constantly preaching ball security, the Eagles have now gone 10 consecutive games with a turnover margin of zero or worse. That’s really hard to do. That 10-game streak of games without winning a positive integer in the turnover battle is 4^th-longest in franchise history, behind streaks in 1967 and 1968 (15 games), 2012 (12 games) and 1985 and 1986 (11 games). And longest current streak in the NFL. Last time they were plus-one or better was the 21-17 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead in Week 11 last year. (They’ve also gone 18 straight games without being plus-two or better, the 2^nd-longest streak in franchise history behind a 27-game stretch from mid-2011 through early 2013). Tough to win that way.

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