Iowa vs. Michigan State prediction: Odds, expert picks QB matchup, betting trends, and stats

Date:

Iowa (4-2, 2-1 in Big Ten) and Michigan State (3-3, 1-2 in Big Ten) meet in East Lansing for a Saturday night matchup on NBC and Peacock at 7:30 PM ET.

Iowa has been one of the surprise teams for bettors going 5-1 to the Over this season after beating Washington at home 40-16 last week. Now, Iowa is on the road and favored by a touchdown. The Hawkeyes are 10-4 dating back to the start of the 2021 season on the road and 1-1 this year.

Michigan State is coming off a bye week, which is perfect timing as they enter on a three-game losing streak. Granted, the losses came against Boston College, Ohio State, and Oregon, MSU needed the bye week after starting 3-0 and falling to 3-3. Last season, Michigan State went 4-8, so they are only one win away from matching last year’s win total.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all of college football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!

Game Details and How to watch Iowa @ Michigan State

  • Date: Saturday, October 19, 2024

  • Time: 7:30 PM EST

  • Site: Spartan Stadium

  • City: East Lansing, MI

  • TV/Streaming: NBC / Peacock

Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for Iowa @ Michigan State

The latest odds as of Tuesday:

§ Moneyline: Iowa -250, Michigan State +200
§ Spread: Iowa -6.5 (-105)
§ Total: 41.5 points

*odds courtesy of BetMGM

The Game Total of 41.5 was bet up from the opening line of 39.5 as bettors are likely backing Iowa’s 5-1 Over stretch to start the season. While Michigan State is 5-1 to the Under, the bye week provides a better chance for the Spartans to score after 17 points in the past two weeks. Small money will likely move Iowa -6.5 to Iowa -6 before Thursday, but most of the movement on the spread will likely come before kickoff.

Bet the Edge is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) has the following best bets for Saturday’s matchup between Iowa and Michigan State:
“I am not confident that Michigan State can score more than two touchdowns on Iowa’s defense, but there’s nothing like a bye week to fix a few problems.

Michigan State welcomes Iowa, then has three-ranked opponents on deck after this meeting, so they have to find some positives in this game. For Iowa, they rolled Minnesota 31-14 in the only game as a road favorite this year and could certainly post four-plus touchdowns on Michigan State.

I will ride with the OVER 41.5 between Iowa and Michigan State and hold my nose with Aidan Chiles and Cade McNamara at quarterback.”

BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy

Line movement (open, current)

  • Ashton Jeanty +5000, +150

  • Travis Hunter +3500, +800

  • Cam Ward +20000, +900

  • Jalen Milroe +800, +1000

  • Quinn Ewers +800, +2200

Biggest Liability

  • Travis Hunter, Colorado

  • Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

  • Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee

College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. Bet the EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

Quarterback matchup for Iowa @ Michigan State

  • Iowa: Cade McNamara has one of the lowest passing yard totals through six games (794) and ranks 114th in QBR (36.8) as Iowa is asking the 5th-year senior to not turn the ball over. McNamara has delivered in wins with a 5-0 TD to interception ratio, but in the two losses, he has a 0-2 TD to interception ratio.

  • Michigan State:  Aidan Chiles had this third game of the season with a touchdown pass last week and the second game without an interception. Childs has tossed 200-plus yards twice this season and MSU scored 17 combined points in the past two weeks. The Oregon State transfer has 8 interceptions to 5 touchdowns in his first season as a starter.

Hawkeyes @ Spartans player news & recent stats

  • Iowa is 5-1 to the Over this season and 3-3 ATS.

  • Michigan State is 5-1 to the Under this season and 3-3 ATS.

  • Michigan State is 0-3 ATS at home this season (2-1 ML) and 3-0 ATS (1-2 ML) on the road.

  • Iowa has won the last two meetings vs Michigan State by 10 and 42 points.

  • The Under has gone 5-0 in the last five meetings between Iowa and Michigan State in East Lansing.

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

  • Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)

  • Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

  • Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)

  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)

  • Eric Froton (@CFFroton)

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