BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – This story begins a series that will run through the end of September and for much of October. Is Indiana better than each of its Big Ten opponents?
Nine categories were chosen so there can be no ambiguity on which team is better. There will be no ties in individual categories. Think of it like you would the Supreme Court.
The categories: Point guard play, free throw shooting, inside scoring, perimeter shooting, rebounding, perimeter defense, rim protection, how much proven Power Five talent is on the roster, and intangibles.
The daily series will cover both the men’s and women’s basketball teams, and it will alternate between the teams.
The four new Big Ten schools on the West Coast will be mixed in throughout the series with the 13 other Big Ten schools. We start with Oregon. The Ducks (24-12) played their way into the NCAA Tournament last year by winning the Pac-12 Tournament. Once in the field, Oregon defeated South Carolina 87-73 before the Ducks fell to Creighton in double overtime in the second round.
Oregon returns three of their top five scorers, though the two players they lost – center N’Faly Dante (17 ppg, 9.2 rpg) and guard Jermaine Cousinard (16.6 ppg, 3 apg) were their two leading scorers.
Veteran coach Dana Altman has been at Oregon since 2010 and has been coaching major college basketball since 1989.
Here’s how the battle between the Hoosiers and Ducks shakes out.
• Point guard play – Super sophomore Jackson Shelstad is a leading candidate to jump into the role.
Shelstad started 30 of 32 games as a freshman. He did a little bit of everything – he distributed (2.8 apg), he rebounded (2.8 rpg) and he scored (12.8 ppg). He’s also a decent 3-point shooter.
It’s not an exact comparison by any means, but Shelstad did okay against Myles Rice’s Washington State team. Shelstad had 14 points in one meeting and nine points in the other. Oregon only played Stanford (2024 home of Kanaan Carlyle) and Shelstad scored 19 points.
On the other hand, Rice averaged 21.5 ppg against Oregon. Both players made the All-Pac-12 freshman team.
Depth behind Shelstad is thin, so the edge here goes to Indiana’s ball-handlers – Rice, Trey Galloway and Gabe Cupps. Edge: Indiana.
• Free throw shooting – Of the five players expected to play the most minutes among the Ducks, guard Keeshawn Barthelemy was the only one to shoot below 70% at the line at his 2024 school.
At Indiana, Mackenzie Mgbako (82.1%) and Rice (81.1%) are the only Hoosiers who shot over 70% at the line. Free throws are an area where the Hoosiers need significant improvement. Edge: Oregon.
• Inside scoring – Oregon will be a guard-oriented team with Shelstad and Villanova transfer TJ Bamba being the expected primary scorers. Brandon Angel, a 6-foot-8 forward, could be the Ducks’ best interior scorer. He averaged 13 ppg and 4.7 rpg for Stanford in 2024.
That pales in comparison to the firepower Oumar Ballo (12.9 ppg, 10.1 rpg) and Malik Reneau (15.4 ppg, 6 rpg) bring to the table for the Hoosiers. Edge: Indiana.
• Perimeter shooting – Oregon has a lot of good shooters, but only one truly dangerous shooter. It’s Angel, the 6-8 forward, who converted 44.7% of his 3-point shots at Stanford in 2024. He will stretch opposing bigs defensively.
Past that, Oregon has Barthelemy (38.5%), Bamba (36.9% at Villanova), Jadrian Tracey (35.9%), Shelstad (34.5%) and Ra’Heim Moss (30.8%).
Indiana feels that it improved its perimeter shooting, but only Luke Goode (38.9% at Illinois) proved it in the 2024 season. Carlyle (32%) and Rice (27.5% in 2024) haven’t proven their shooting bona fides yet. Mackenzie Mgbako (32.7%) got better as the season went along. Indiana’s shooting might be contingent on which Galloway (46.2% in 2023, 26% in 2024) shows up.
Right now? Based on the evidence, the Ducks get the nod. Edge: Oregon.
• Rebounding – At barttorvik.com, the highest projected rebounder for Oregon is Georgetown transfer forward Kwame Evans Jr. He’s projected to grab 5 rpg. Overall, Oregon’s expected contributors are expected to combine for 33 rpg.
Ballo (projected 7.7 rpg) and Reneau (projected 7.3 rpg) nearly reach half of Oregon’s total by themselves. Add in Mgbako, and Indiana should be able to control the glass against the Ducks. Edge: Indiana.
• Perimeter defense – At Villanova, Bamba was a solid defender. He scored high in both defensive win shares (1.5) and defensive box plus-minus (3.1) by advanced stat reckoning. Past that? Barthelemy and Shelstad were both average as defenders. None of the guards force many turnovers. None reached even 1 steal per game.
Rice should improve Indiana’s perimeter defense. Cupps and Galloway are both capable defenders. Indiana won’t win this category against every team, but they take the edge in this one. Edge: Indiana.
• Defense at the rim – This one is closer than you might think. While Indiana hopes that Ballo (1.2 bpg) continues the rim protection he demonstrated at Arizona, Oregon has some rim protectors of its own. Center Nate Bittle (1 bpg) is capable (though it was a small, five-game sample size due to injury and illness) and so is Cook (0.6 bpg at Georgetown). I still give the edge to Ballo and the Hoosiers, but only just. Edge: Indiana.
• Proven Power 5 ability on roster – Indiana has proven Power Five players in Ballo, Carlyle, Galloway, Mgbako, Reneau and Rice. By “proven,” I mean players who have played 25 minutes per game at this level. If a tiebreaker is needed? Gabe Cupps’ 2024 minutes (21.7 mpg) can be used for comparison.
Shelstad (32.7), Angel (31.2), Bamba (28), Cook (27.1) Tracey (26.9) meet the threshold for the Ducks. Oregon comes close, but Indiana nips this category. Edge: Indiana.
• Intangibles – As far as the Big Ten pecking order is concerned, a big disadvantage for the West Coast schools will be the travel they will endure going East. Oregon makes four trips into the Eastern or Central Time Zones. Their opponents going to Eugene, Ore., from the traditional Big Ten footprint will only make one trip each. It’s a huge disadvantage for the West Coast schools.
Coaching-wise, Dana Altman is an experienced hand. He’s won at least 20 games every year he’s been at Oregon. If you add in his Creighton years, he’s only had one season since 1998 where he won less than 20 games. His college resume is better than Mike Woodson’s.
Still, the travel and relatively young roster is going to be hard for Oregon to overcome. I think Indiana has more going for it this season in the Big Ten race. Edge: Indiana.
Verdict – Indiana wins this battle 7-2. But several categories were close, so it isn’t the blowout that the score would seem to indicate. That would also indicate that Oregon is going to be relatively solid.
While Oregon lost in the wider Big Ten picture on the intangible of travel, Indiana does have to go out West when they play their one game against the Ducks in early March. So while Indiana wins the war, Oregon has a very good chance to win that individual battle.
