There have been several Super Bowl matchups, in terms of the strength of both teams, that aren’t as good as Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions to finish this regular season.
The NFL caught a huge break when the Vikings held on to beat the Green Bay Packers in Week 17. That ensured the Vikings’ Week 18 game at the Lions would be for the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the conference. It had to be the easiest flex decision in the history of the league. The NFL moved the game to Sunday night, and there’s sure to be a playoff-level audience for it.
There aren’t many regular season matchups ever that can compare to what we’re going to see. Start with this: The matchup will feature the most combined wins for any regular-season game in NFL history.
The winner of Sunday night’s game will become just the ninth team in NFL history to finish a regular season with 15 or more wins. The loser will have the most wins of any wild-card team in history. The record was held by the 1999 Tennessee Titans, who had 13 wins. Even with the 17th game having been added to the schedule in 2021, that history being made by both teams is remarkable. It’s even harder to believe they happen to meet each other in the last game of the season.
It’s unprecedented for two teams with records this good to meet so late in the season. The fact that they’re divisional rivals and happened to be scheduled against each other for the final game of the regular season makes it a perfect storm.
Not many matchups compare to Vikings-Lions
Not all great matchups have produced great games. But there are only a few matchups that can be compared to this week’s Vikings at Lions clash.
The most anticipated regular-season matchup in NFL history might have come in 1990. The New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers each started the season 10-0. Both teams lost their 11th game before meeting, but it was rare to see two 10-1 teams face off. The 49ers won that Monday night game 7-3.
The 2018 meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams turned out to be the greatest game in regular-season history, and it was a great matchup as well. Both teams were 9-1. The Rams won 54-51.
In terms of history, a 1985 game between a 12-0 Chicago Bears team and the Miami Dolphins had a ton of hype, and ultimately was the only loss for the famed ’85 Bears. In 2007, the New England Patriots finished off a 16-0 season with a win at the New York Giants in a much-anticipated matchup.
The last time two teams met in the regular-season finale with the No. 1 seed on the line was 1993 between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, an overtime Cowboys win that became famous for Emmitt Smith putting up 229 yards on 42 touches despite a separated shoulder.
The best comparison for the stakes involved and the gaudy records for both teams came in the final game of the 1967 season. The 11-0-2 Baltimore Colts faced the 10-1-2 Los Angeles Rams, and in that era only division winners made the playoffs. That meant the winner won the Coastal Division and went to the playoffs and the loser’s season was over. The Colts lost 34-10 and didn’t make the playoffs despite an 11-1-2 record. Johnny Unitas became the first of only two NFL MVPs in league history from a non-playoff team.
In terms of records, there have been only three matchups in NFL history between two teams that were both 10 or more games over .500, and one happened almost a century ago.
Sunday’s game in Detroit will be only the 4th in NFL history between two teams that are both 10+ games above .500, per @EliasSports. The others:
2005: Seahawks vs. Colts
1983: Washington vs. Cowboys
1926: Yellow Jackets vs. Bears— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) December 30, 2024
The NFL couldn’t have had any idea when it scheduled Vikings at Lions in Week 18 that it would be flexed to Sunday night, much less be in the conversation as the greatest regular-season matchup in the league’s history.
A lot on the line Sunday night
The matchup isn’t just fascinating because of the records for each team. The stakes for the game are rare. One team gets a division title, the No. 1 seed and a week off. The losing team has its Super Bowl path get much tougher.
The difference between the No. 1 seed and the No. 5 seed, which the losing team will drop to, is immense. The No. 1 seed will be the only team in the conference with a bye and will be two home wins from a Super Bowl. The No. 5 seed will have to go on the road in wild-card weekend, likely against an explosive Tampa Bay Buccaneers team, then perhaps have to play the Eagles (currently 13-3) in the divisional round before a road matchup against the No. 1 seeded NFC North champ.
For a pair of teams that have never won a Super Bowl between them — the Lions have famously never even been to one — what happens on Sunday night could ultimately be the difference between a quick playoff exit and a historic run to the Super Bowl.
On top of it all, these two teams have already played one of the best games of this season. Back in Week 7, the Lions gave away a 28-17 fourth quarter lead, but drove downfield trailing 29-28 and kicked a game-winning field goal with 15 seconds left to get a key 31-29 win. That’s one of two Vikings losses all season.
The final game of the 2024 regular season has everything. The stakes are enormous for two teams chasing their first Super Bowl. They both have historically excellent records. They had one great matchup already. If it’s not the greatest matchup in NFL regular-season history, it’s not too far from the top spot.
