Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK) (NYSE:BRK) has amassed a staggering $325 billion cash reserve, its largest ever, and nearly double the previous year’s balance. This coincides with a record high in Warren Buffett’s favored valuation metric: the stock market’s value relative to the U.S. economy. While this may seem like Buffett is predicting an imminent market downturn, his strategy is more nuanced and insightful.
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What Happened: Nir Kaissar, founder of Unison Advisors, said in an opinion piece for Bloomberg that Buffett readily admits he cannot forecast short-term market movements or crashes. Instead, he focuses on long-term returns, adjusting Berkshire’s asset allocation accordingly.
Kaissar explains this approach as allocating assets based on expected returns rather than speculating on market timing. This principle has consistently shaped Buffett’s decisions.
Berkshire’s cash allocation has fluctuated dramatically, from 1% in 1994 to 28% today. “The record shows Buffett consistently raising Berkshire’s cash allocation as stock valuations rise during booms — and expected returns consequently decline — and drawing down cash as opportunities arise,” Kaissar said.
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He added that during the 1990s internet bubble, Buffett increased cash holdings as valuations soared but deployed capital as opportunities emerged. Similarly, leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, Buffett boosted cash reserves, only to invest strategically during the downturn, including a well-timed Goldman Sachs stake.
Buffett’s approach hinges on a fundamental principle: valuations and future returns are inversely related. When assets are overvalued, expected returns decline, justifying higher cash reserves.
Today, the market-to-GDP ratio is at unprecedented levels, signaling potentially lower future returns. With cash yields comparable to those during past booms, Berkshire’s significant cash reserve reflects Buffett’s strategy of preparing for opportunities in an uncertain market.
