A truism has it that Israel needs to lose only one war for its modern history to come to an early close. That has never been more obvious than today, with the IDF locked in combat with Hamas in the south, Hezbollah’s rockets raining down in the north and the Ayatollah within touching distance of a nuclear bomb. If Israel laid down its arms there would be a second Holocaust, but if the enemy did so there would be peace. Another truism, also so called for a reason.
But in its recent conflicts, Israel has been held to a draw. Regardless of the numbers of civilians killed, it seems that while the West is happy to win wars for itself, whether against Nazi Germany, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq or the Islamic State, different rules apply to the Jews.
Take the last three land conflicts in Gaza – Protective Edge of 2014, Pillar of Defence of 2012, and 2008’s Cast Lead – which followed Israel’s 2005 withdrawal from the Strip. Israel had thought leaving Gaza would bring peace. But all three were sparked by Hamas provocations, including abductions, bombings and rocket fire.
Lasting between a week and a month, these conflicts left Hamas degraded but undeterred. Each time, they deployed the same propaganda playbook, flooding the world with pictures of civilian suffering while censoring evidence of dead terrorists. (In 2014, Indian journalists captured rare footage of militants launching rockets beside their hotel. Hamas was furious. It never happened again.) Each time, the media lapped it up. Each time, the international community obliged Gaza’s Islamist overlords by demanding that Israel remove its boot from their throats.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s “concept” evolved during this period. Under that doctrine, Jerusalem would rely on its military superiority to contain Hamas, punishing it when provoked but avoiding a fight to the death. The logic seemed sound: Israel doubled the size of its economy during those years, while its military, technological and diplomatic achievements soared. The hope was that Hamas would shrivel and its sponsor, Iran, would collapse under the weight of its own oppression.
That looks painfully naive today. If October 7 provided one lesson, it was this: a neighbouring enemy who wishes to destroy you, and makes no secret of that fact and builds the capability to do so, will sooner or later break through. That is the principal reason why Netanyahu is holding out against a hostage deal that would leave Hamas undefeated. This time it has to be different.
But as evidenced by the protests that flared across Israel in the wake of the execution of the six hostages, it is not just international pressure that forces the Jewish state to compromise its own security needs. Israel is a democracy and sometimes the pressure comes from within.
In 1982, the war with Hezbollah ended inconclusively. The IDF withdrew to a buffer zone along the Israeli frontier, remaining there to prevent Hezbollah from returning. In 1997, two Israeli military helicopters collided while servicing the zone, claiming 73 lives.
In the aftermath of the tragedy, the “four mothers” movement, led by parents of serving soldiers, became instrumental in stoking public resentment. This pressured Israel into pulling out of southern Lebanon in 2000. Hezbollah then crept back to the border, triggering a further war in 2006.
That round of hostilities ended with a full Israeli withdrawal, aligned with United Nations Resolution 1701, which demanded that Hezbollah be disarmed and kept north of the Litani river, some 19 miles from Israel. Hezbollah simply ignored this; consequences came there none. As I write, it is pounding Israel once again with rockets.
Israel is a country deep in anguish. Thirsty for peace and fatigued by war, the crowds on the streets blame the deaths of the hostages on a venal Netanyahu. But the curse of the Jews is that suffering lies along every path. That will not change unless the jihadi enemy is defeated.
