Two weeks ago, when Josh Allen somehow criss-crossed six different Kansas City Chiefs defenders for a 26-yard touchdown — on a critical fourth-and-2, no less — the Buffalo Bills quarterback punctuated his NFL MVP ballot. Suddenly, what had been a question mark had stiffened into an exclamation point: Allen had cemented the first loss of the Chiefs’ season in cinematic fashion, leaving CBS broadcaster Jim Nance to capture the breathless rapture of many who watched the moment unfold.
“AND THERE HE GOES! …. OHHHHHHHH THE PLAY OF THE YEAR IN THE NFL!” Nance clamored.
If Allen hadn’t already been in every single MVP conversation up to that point, there would be no denying him to the rest. The only question (and this is always paramount in MVP races) was whether Allen could harness the momentum moving forward. On Sunday, in a classically framed December snowstorm against the San Francisco 49ers, he answered resoundingly. Not only by commandeering a 35-10 win, but by producing the first touchdown “hat-trick” achieved by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era — throwing, catching and rushing for a score against the 49ers. That included a touchdown pass that Allen was credited as having thrown to himself, in an incredibly improvised moment that left NBC’s broadcasting booth of Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth howling in disbelief.
In close races, an MVP can be stamped in moments like this. Predictably that has now laid the foundation of this week’s discussion about the award, which is really just the latest twist in what is shaping up to be one of the most riveting votes in recent memory. Even with another five weeks of football left and some crossroads moments still on the table for the trio of frontrunners, which include Allen, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. Lest we forget, each of those stars have have conjured various “call an end to the race” moments.
Just over a week ago, Barkley mangled the Los Angeles Rams defense for 255 rushing yards — and 302 yards from scrimmage — putting himself back on a track to challenge the league’s single-season rushing record … which is 40 years old and counting. Like Allen this week, the performance was met with a chorus of “just give him the MVP now” and “shut the race down.” One week later, Allen has responded. Of course, Barkley’s MVP case goes beyond one game or even one hallowed NFL record.
Despite having at least eight “tush push” touchdowns vultured at the goal line by quarterback Jalen Hurts, he has still been the engine driving the Eagles offense in the second halves of this season. He has an absurd 982 second-half rushing yards through 12 games, which ranks him ahead of 30 other entire teams. His fourth quarters are even better, with 481 yards on 7.4 yards per carry in that frame. Simply put, when the Eagles need him most, Barkley has delivered at a historic pace. Just as he did with his 25-yard fourth-quarter touchdown on Sunday, which helped the Eagles put the Ravens away in a game bathed in postseason intensity.
Aside from the analytics, this type of moment is why Barkley is going to get serious MVP consideration down the stretch.
But the same still goes for Jackson, too. Just three weeks ago, he was so far ahead of the MVP field that there were doubts anyone could realistically claw back into the race. Then the Ravens dropped two of their last three games while facing playoff-caliber opponents — and with Jackson’s production dipping in all three games — and suddenly the race had new life. But the losses and even the dip in production don’t really tell the story of how vital Jackson has been.
Yes, his statistics have him on pace to potentially surpass his absurd 2019 MVP season. That alone would place him as a frontrunner in nearly any NFL season. But it’s his value to this Ravens team that is so astonishing. Virtually all the success in Baltimore’s 8-5 record is built on Jackson and running back Derrick Henry. Kicker Justin Tucker is struggling through the most unreliable season of his career, the Ravens defense is a shadow of itself, and Jackson has been betrayed at times by a cast of receivers that amount to Zay Flowers and little else. Overall, the Ravens defensive and special teams EPA ranks 29th in the league. That gives you an idea of what — or more to the point, who — is carrying this team.
For both Barkley and Jackson, these are the arguments that have to be weighed down the stretch. Not to mention the remainder of the schedule, which could see Allen hit some turbulence and remix the entire expanse of arguments. Not that Allen should, mind you. The majority of the Bills’ remaining schedule is cake, including a three-game capper to the season that sandwiches two games against the 3-9 New England Patriots around a 3-9 New York Jets team. Meanwhile, Jackson will see two likely playoff teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans, while Barkley will also get the Steelers and Washington Commanders.
But between the three, Allen still has the biggest “stage” moment — coming December 15 on the road against the Detroit Lions, in what is shaping up as one of the most anticipated games of this entire regular season. Not only does it put Allen onto a field with another guy who has his own MVP case, Lions quarterback Jared Goff, it pits him against a Detroit defense that is horribly depleted by injuries and ripe for a late-season shootout. If Allen requires some kind of closing argument to get his statistics into the neighborhood of Jackson’s gaudy sheet, he’s certainly got the setup for it … aside from his last three games getting played in December weather (two in Buffalo and the third in Foxboro). Oh, and for the analytics crowd, Allen also leads all NFL quarterbacks in a key “smart stat” metric: EPA (expected points added) per play versus WPA (win probability added) per play, edging out Jackson, Goff, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and every other heavy hitter this season.
For now, it’s all grist for the mill in the MVP argument. Today’s full-throated campaign for Allen on the heels of an iconic snow game and first-ever quarterback “hat trick” could shift back to Jackson in the next five weeks, as we dissect the deep value aspects of both players to their teams. Or it could tilt toward Barkley, who could shatter a decades-old season rushing record while igniting a renaissance in running back valuation across the NFL.
In many ways, the MVP race really starts now. And it promises to be one of the best we’ve ever seen.
