After easily winning both exhibition games, the first season of the Mark Pope era is set to tip off for the Kentucky Wildcats men’s basketball program.
The sideline will feature both a new-look coaching staff and a brand-new team. This roster does not include a 5-star freshman or a projected lottery pick, which fans grew accustomed to under John Calipari.
Instead, it is made up of nine transfers and three freshmen. In fact, this will be the most experienced team in program history in games played (845), minutes played, and points scored (8,000). However, none of them have played together.
Can the experience of a heavy-transfer squad take Kentucky to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019?
Here are my predictions for how the 2024-25 season plays out for Kentucky.
MVP: Jaxson Robinson
Jaxson Robinson was Kentucky’s biggest addition of the off-season. An expected second-round pick, Robinson withdrew his name from the NBA Draft and will be the sole player who has played for Pope in the past. Knowing Pope’s system and terminology will benefit the other players and provide a de facto leader.
The reigning Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year has led the Cats in scoring through two exhibition games, including a 24-point outing against Minnesota State, during which he made eight 3-pointers. He has been the answer in the little adversity the team has faced in those contests and needs a score.
Robinson returns to the SEC motivated after stints at Arkansas and Texas A&M, and I believe he will earn All-SEC honors.
Defensive Player of the Year: Lamont Butler
Seven NCAA tournament wins in four appearances. Lamont Butler has won more NCAA Tournament wins than all but fourteen programs since the start of his career in 2020, including Kentucky (1). While he brings a winning pedigree, he is also one of the best perimeter defenders in college basketball.
The reigning Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year and three-time All-Defensive team selection will be responsible for defending some of the country’s best guards this season, with the Cats taking on the likes of Mark Sears, Wade Taylor, Josh Hubbard, and Johnell Davis. His individual defense will play the difference in wins and losses.
Playing against him the past two years at BYU, Jaxson Robinson knows how elite he is on the defensive side of the ball. “On the scouting report, it was keep the ball away from Lamont Butler as much as you could. Because he’s just a pest defensively.”
Freshman of the Year: Collin Chandler
In contrast with recent Kentucky teams, this roster has only three candidates for this award. While Travis Perry and Trent Noah are great shooters, they will struggle defensively with the SEC’s athleticism/physicality.
That leaves Collin Chandler, a top-40 prospect who can shoot and is a high-level athlete. He showed flashes at Kentucky’s Blue-White Game, and as he gets more games under his belt, he will be a big contributor for this team.
We saw flashes of what Chandler can do in the exhibition season. He’s shown enough potential to think he may be going pro before he can play four seasons of college basketball.
Record Projection: 21-10 overall, 11-7 SEC
In our first season predictions piece, I picked the Cats to finish 21-10 overall in the regular season, including an 11-7 mark in league play.
I look at this team similarly to the 2022-23 Kentucky team. That team relied more on transfers, as four of the top five scorers came from other schools. I think Mark Pope is better at coaching transfers and has a better system, but I believe it will be an up-and-down season while hanging around the top 25 polls.
Kentucky will get their first key win of the season against Louisville, following it up with a win over Ohio State in the Champion’s Classic. In a tough conference, I expect the Cats to pick up wins over Tennessee on the road, plus Arkansas and Auburn at home.
I do see Kentucky losing to Gonzaga, Duke, and Clemson in the non-conference schedule, as well as Tennessee and Florida at home, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State on the road, and both games to Alabama in SEC play.
SEC Tournament Prediction: 5-seed, Loss in semifinals
The SEC is the best it has been since the 1990s, at least on paper. There are nine teams ranked in the preseason Top 25 and ten teams are projected to make the NCAA Tournament. FanDuel gives Kentucky just the seventh-best odds to win the SEC this season.
That said, the Cats will grab some wins over the league’s top teams but will also lose to some on the bubble, such as Texas or Georgia. For that reason, I am picking Kentucky to finish fifth in the conference, just missing the double-bye in the conference tournament.
Pope knows that the SEC Tournament matters to the fanbase, and he will have them ready to play for a healthy contingent of Wildcat fans in Nashville. I predict the Cats will win two games before losing in the semifinal, bettering their total from the last three seasons, making it feel like a nice accomplishment in Year 1 for Pope.
NCAA Tournament Prediction: 6-seed, Round of 32 Exit
Mark Pope has yet to win his first NCAA Tournament game. I believe that changes this season, but I still believe Kentucky will fall short of the second weekend another season.
In two tournament appearances at BYU, Pope has been upset by an 11-seed each time. With a playstyle that prioritizes three-point shooting, the Wildcats are prone to an upset. Also, to advance in March, you need “bucket getters,” and outside of Jaxson Robinson, Kentucky doesn’t have another go-to guy as it stands.
FanDuel currently has Kentucky tied for the 12th-best odds to win the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
How do you see this season playing out for Pope and the Cats? Send us your predictions in the comments section!
