NEW YORK – The astronomical start of fall is just days away, arriving on Sunday. Before we can fully embrace the crisp autumn air and colorful foliage, let’s cast our eyes toward the winter months ahead.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center recently released its updated winter outlook, which provides a glimpse of what Americans can expect from December through February. The forecast suggests a typical La Niña pattern.
The influence of La Niña is expected to dominate weather conditions from December through February, according to NOAA. This often translates to wetter conditions in the northern tier of the country, while the southern tier may face drier-than-average weather.
NOAA predicts a 71% chance of La Niña emerging between September and November, with the cooling trend potentially persisting through January-March 2025. While a moderate to strong La Niña is less likely during the fall and winter, there’s still a possibility.
By the February-April 2025 season, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ESNO)-neutral conditions are expected to return.
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NOAA expects the highest chance of warmer-than-average temperatures to be focused on much of the eastern and southern regions, as well as northwestern Alaska.
The greatest likelihood of warmer conditions is anticipated along the Gulf Coast and in the Southeast, including Florida, according to NOAA.
The outlook also favors cooler-than-usual conditions from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies and northern Plains.
The northwestern U.S., Great Lakes, Northeast and much of northwestern Alaska are most likely to see above-average precipitation this winter, according to NOAA. However, this doesn’t guarantee snowier conditions.
Drier-than-average weather is expected in the southwestern, south-central and southeastern U.S., as well as parts of Alaska. The Rio Grande Valley in Texas and the southern High Plains face the highest risk of below-average precipitation, according to NOAA.
For the rest of the U.S., the chances of below-, near- or above-average precipitation are roughly equal from December to February.
La Niña could worsen drought conditions in the South this winter, according to NOAA, as the southern tier of the country is facing a heightened risk of drier-than-average conditions through the end of the year.
This past summer, drought coverage expanded and intensified across much of the Great Plains, mid- to lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast and Ohio Valley.
“Drought persistence is forecast for much of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, where large precipitation deficits exist dating back 6 to 12 months,” NOAA said in its latest outlook.
However, there’s a chance of improvement east of the spine of the Appalachians, including western parts of Maryland and Virginia.
Original article source: La Nina winter setting up, NOAA says. Here’s what that means for US
