For well over a hundred years, the world’s population has at large been spellbound by the tale of the Loch Ness monster, also known as Nessie, a prehistoric creature occupying the old waters in Northern Scotland.
Interest in the creature peaked by 1934, when a photograph surfaced, allegedly showing the head and back of the so-called monster, further fueling the fire of intrigue for decades to come.
The photograph was, in time, revealed as a hoax, and despite thorough investigation, all signs indicate that Nessie is nothing but a mere myth.
This isn’t entirely dissimilar to the perception of Josh Giddey as a real NBA point guard.
Despite years of debate, and some shaky evidence occasionally captured on film, Giddey’s ability to handle the position remains a folktale at best.
Since entering the NBA in 2021, the Australian has been billed as a type of Magic Johnson Lite, with the only similarities being his 6-foot-8 height and his ability to rebound.
That … is not exactly enough evidence to keep buying into the notion of Giddey as a real point guard. And that realization by Oklahoma City Thunder general manager Sam Presti was what ultimately made him available via trade, when he was shipped to the Chicago Bulls for Alex Caruso, a trade that remains much maligned due to how lopsided it was for the Thunder.
In fact, there’s more evidence to suggest Giddey should seek to switch things up. His struggle to shoot off the dribble is just one example, but one that’s already so problematic it’s difficult to envision him ever justifying becoming a lead guard.
His release is slow, and his shooting motion is so rough he has virtually no rhythm when he attempts to get his shot off quickly, while moving. His shot is basically a set shot, and one that needs ages to set up before it’s launched. That’s fine for the gym down the road, but when he’s taking it against NBA defenders, things tend to change.
Giddey might in time turn into a decent shooter, from a precision standpoint, but all of it would have to be created by others and him having enough time to get the actual shot off.
Is there a world where he can increase both his volume and efficiency from 3-point territory? Never say never — he’s still only 22 years old — but he’d have to restructure the entire foundation of his shooting, and that’s a process that will take years, with the final result being a large, uncomfortable question mark. He’s taken just 741 career triples, in about 6,500 minutes. For an NBA guard in this modern era, that’s ridiculously low, an average of around 3.3 per game. By any measurement, a guard taking that few 3s simply doesn’t pose a big enough threat to get guarded from out there.
Speaking of slow, this too applies to Giddey’s defensive timing, as he’s not exactly athletic. When guarding a player such as Darius Garland, which he did Friday night during the NBA Cup night, Giddey might as well have been a hoax himself, as his presence didn’t even seem to register to Garland, who relentlessly beat him off the dribble whenever he wanted.
Now, Giddey does a decent job rebounding the ball, and he does know how to make quality passes. There’s an interesting component to his grab-and-go potential, of him crashing the defensive glass and pushing the ball down the court to teammates who have leaked out.
Unfortunately, as he occupies one of the guard spots, the players ahead of him are usually larger and taller ones who take a minute to get themselves down the court.
The idea of Giddey finishing those plays himself is also more theoretical than practical, given his lack of athletic pop. When challenging players near the rim, Giddey simply lacks the athleticism and the strength to convert, or draw a significant portion of fouls. For his career, he takes just 1.7 free throws per night and has a free-throw rate of 14%, which means per attempted field goal there’s only a 14% chance of him getting to the foul line.
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To summarize, Giddey is not a strong shooter or scorer in general. His defense on opposing guards is too slow and too ineffective. He can rebound, and he can pass well as someone who’s 6-8, but doesn’t do it enough to justify his position.
The solution?
There lies a real argument in there that Giddey should make a transition to power forward.
For one, it would allow the Bulls to put another guard on the floor to take over crucial playmaking decisions. Lord knows they have enough alternatives in the form of Ayo Dosunmu, Lonzo Ball, and Coby White, all of whom can create more off the bounce, and open the court more with their scoring prowess. In addition, most NBA guards today can shoot, also off the dribble, which is another problem removed from the equation.
In terms of playmaking, there’s the added benefit of having a four-man who can make quality passes. Most NBA teams dream of having playmaking at most positions, as to unlock a toy chest of fun offensive opportunities, and Giddey as a team’s third or fourth playmaking option would be able to select his spots fairly efficiently. After all, he has put up 5.8 dimes for his career, which isn’t nothing.
As for the defensive side of the ball, the argument only improves. Giddey stands a better chance at being effective against the Tobias Harrises and Harrison Barneses of the world than trying to stop speedy All-Star point guards.
His rebounding (7.2 for his career) is good enough to make the transition and should carry over. He might lose that battle when matched up against much taller power forwards, but you live with that, as it beats the alternative of him playing catch-up to point guards on the perimeter who often succeed in removing him from the play and forcing the Bulls to play 4-on-5 defense.
The solution may not be perfect, and a positional move may not even turn him into a starter. But it’s getting increasingly obvious that Giddey cannot handle the responsibility of an NBA point guard.
Given that he’s still got some level of talent, it could be in his interest for the Bulls to test this out, to see if he at least could turn into a rotation player for the long term and under more optimized circumstances.
If not, it’ll only be a matter of time before Giddey becomes an afterthought, whose time in the NBA will be reduced to a short-lived myth of the 6-8 Aussie who thought he could play point guard.
