The Mets enter this week’s three-game series against the Braves in Atlanta with a chance to lock up a Wild Card spot.
Here are the playoff scenarios for the final week of the regular season, with the postseason set to begin next week…
Mets clinch a Wild Card spot if…
The Mets are 2.0 games up on the Braves, meaning the math is pretty simple when it comes to them potentially clinching a playoff spot during the series that takes place in Atlanta from Tuesday to Thursday.
If the Mets take at least two of three games from the Braves, they’re in.
If the Mets go at least 4-2 over their final six games, they’re in.
In a scenario where the Mets take just one of three games from the Braves, they would remain 1.0 game on them up but lose the season series to Atlanta. In that reality, the Mets still control their fate, but things get murkier.
Mets control their own destiny if…
In the above scenario, where the Mets win just one game in Atlanta, they would still be able to lock up a Wild Card spot by sweeping the Brewers in Milwaukee during this weekend’s three-game series.
Because the Mets would enter play Friday up 1.0 game on Atlanta, the Braves would be unable to catch them in the event the Mets swept Milwaukee.
The Mets would also control their own destiny in a scenario where they win only one game against the Braves and don’t sweep the Brewers, but the Braves lose one or more games to the Royals during their final series of the season.
For example, in a world where the Mets enter the final weekend 1.0 game up on Atlanta and the Braves lose once to Kansas City, the Mets would be able to clinch a spot by winning two of three against the Brewers. Each additional loss by the Braves to the Royals would give the Mets more leeway.
Mets need help if…
If the Mets get swept by the Braves in Atlanta, they will enter play on Friday 1.0 game back of the Braves and without the tiebreaker.
That means New York would no longer control its own destiny when it comes to beating out Atlanta.
The scenarios for the Mets to finish ahead of the Braves would be…
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Win three games against Brewers, while Braves lose at least two games to Royals
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Win two games against Brewers, while Braves lose three games to Royals
The Diamondbacks also bear watching
It isn’t just about the Braves as the Mets look to punch their ticket to October.
Entering play on Monday, the Mets are tied with the Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card spot but hold the tiebreaker with them because they won the season series.
As is noted above, if the Mets win at least two games against the Braves this week, they’re in.
If they don’t accomplish that, they could get in by vaulting back past the Braves OR by finishing tied with or ahead of the D-backs.
Arizona finishes its season with six games at home against the Giants (from Monday to Wednesday) and Padres (from Friday to Sunday).
The NL East scenario
The Mets are 5.0 games back of the Phillies in the NL East with six games to play. And Philadelphia has the tiebreaker.
That means one win by the Phillies or one loss by the Mets seals the division for Philadelphia.
There is one crazy scenario where the Mets win the division, though.
If the Mets go 6-0 and the Phillies go 0-6, New York takes the NL East crown.
