Michigan State basketball Maui Invitational tipoff: Matchups, analysis, prediction

Date:

• What: Michigan State vs. Colorado, Maui Invitational quarterfinal

• When: 5 p.m. (ET) Monday

• Where: Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, Hawaii

TV/Radio: ESPN2/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 385 (MSU broadcast), 384 (Colorado broadcast)

RELATED: See the full 2024 Maui Invitational bracket with matchups, times and TV info

• Records/Rankings: MSU is 4-1 and unranked. Colorado is 4-0 and unranked.

• Betting line: MSU -5.5

• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 711-296 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Colorado — Tad Boyle is 358-249 in his 19th season as a collegiate head coach, including 302-183 in his 15th season with the Buffaloes.

• Series: The two programs have played only once before, in the first round of the 2003 NCAA tournament, when the Spartans won 79-64 at the beginning of an unexpected Elite Eight run.

Projected lineups

Michigan State

C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 6.4

F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 10.2

G (8) Frankie Fidler (6-7) 11.8

G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 14.6

PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 6.2

Colorado

C (50) Elijah Malone (6-10) 14.0

F (6) Trevor Baskin (6-9) 10.0

F (35) Assane Diop (6-8) 1.5

F (23) Andrej Jakimovski (6-1) 14.3

G (3) Julian Hammond III (6-2) 9.5

• MSU update: The Spartans enter the Maui Invitational coming off a pair of hard-fought wins over Samford and Bowling Green that can be seen as either concerning or encouraging — or both — depending on how you view those performances. This tournament in Maui is MSU’s first chance since a competitive Champions Classic loss to Kansas to show it can compete with the top of college basketball. The Spartans open with Colorado. If they win that game, they’ll likely get Connecticut and then North Carolina, Auburn or Iowa State. The most pressing question is the health of freshman guard Jase Richardson, who sprained his left ankle late in Tuesday’s win over Samford. Tom Izzo said he thinks Richardson will be ready to go. But ankle sprains don’t heal entirely in six days — not even for 18-year-olds — and the Maui Invitational is three taxing games in three days. MSU needs Richardson to be the player he’s been early this season if the Spartans are to challenge the top teams in this event. All eyes will be on the MSU freshman and how well he’s moving.

• Colorado update: Not a ton is expected of the Buffaloes this season after they lost three players who were picked in last June’s NBA draft and three more to the transfer portal. Colorado is 4-0 so far, though hasn’t played anybody of note — beating Eastern Washington, Cal State-Fullerton and Harvard handily, but also barely surviving Northern Colorado in double-overtime. The Buffaloes are leaning heavily on three grad transfers — center Elijah Malone, who was the NAIA player of the year last season at Grace College (Indiana), 6-8 forward Andrej Jakimovski, who was a very productive player for Washington State, and 6-9 forward Trevor Baskin from Division-II Colorado Mesa. All three have been starters and double-digit scorers so far.

• Matchup analysis: After playing two straight teams that could throw small-ball lineups at the Spartans, MSU faces a team that could start three forwards 6-8 or taller and a center, meaning Colorado will have a 6-8 player essentially at shooting guard and four players on the court between 6-8 and 6-10. The Buffaloes have been shooting 40.2% on 3-point attempts but struggle with turnovers. Defensively they’re very different than the Samford team the Spartans just faced. These guys are near the bottom of Division-I college basketball in steals. They won’t put much pressure on the ball.

Colorado looks like a weird team this season. Even their point guard, Julian Hammond III, who played significant minutes last season, is more of a natural 2-guard. It’s hard to judge them entirely because they haven’t played anyone of note. But Tad Boyle is a good coach, who tends to get the most out of his teams. And the Spartans are yet to prove that their an upper-tier high-major squad. My concern for the Spartans here is that Colorado’s size keeps MSU’s coaching staff from using Coen Carr at power forward, with a Jaxon Kohler or someone else at center, surrounded by three guards. That’s been MSU’s best look so far.

FROM 2019: Couch: For Tom Izzo, Maui was the beginning of building MSU basketball

• A look at MSU’s Maui Invitational path: If MSU can get past Colorado, this becomes a fruitful tournament for the Spartans. Not only would they avoid a potentially bad loss to the Buffaloes, but also, every team they’d likely face after Monday’s quarterfinal matchup would give the Spartans a good evaluation of themselves and either be a quality win, or a loss that probably wouldn’t hurt them.

If MSU gets to Tuesday’s semifinal (6 p.m. ET), it’ll likely be against two-time defending national champion Connecticut, which opens with Memphis on Monday. I don’t think UConn is quite the behemoth they’ve been the last two years, but the Huskies still have forward Alex Karaban and added 5-star freshman wing Liam McNeeley, among others. They’ll be contenders again. In a Maui Invitational championship or third-place game Wednesday, MSU would likely face Auburn or Iowa State, two possible top 10 teams. It’s a great field and opportunity for the Spartans, as long as they beat Colorado on Monday.

• Prediction: I think MSU will like the matchup with Colorado, which, despite its size, won’t defensively pester the Spartans. After that, who knows. If Jase Richardson is able to move like he usually does and Jaden Akins plays like he did in the final 25 minutes against Samford and the season opener against Monmouth, MSU will have a shot at the sort of win this week that’ll open eyes. If the Spartans don’t get past Colorado, even a 2-1 week might not be worth a ton.

• Make it: MSU 74, Colorado 68

— Graham Couch

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