MLB’s regular season is a marathon. Its postseason tournament is a sprint.
To emerge from the six-month slog, a team typically needs at least six capable starting pitchers. Over 162 games, depth is paramount. Injuries inevitably wither away the best laid rotation plans of contenders.
October is a different story. With starters journeying shallower into games than ever before, a club can navigate the playoffs with only three or four starting pitchers. A year ago, the Arizona Diamondbacks reached the World Series with a quartet featuring two experienced starters (Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly), a rookie (Brandon Pfaadt) and a bullpen day.
As the saying goes: You are only as good as that day’s starting pitcher. So with the 2024 postseason around the corner, let’s handicap the discussion and rank all the playoff rotations from least to most formidable.
Note: All teams included are currently within two games of a playoff spot, and this exercise involves only projected starting rotations. Of course, the strength of a given bullpen is similarly important to a team’s success. For instance, the Cleveland Guardians, who sit last on this ranking, have far and away the best relief corps in MLB.
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(1) Tanner Bibee (2) Matt Boyd (3) Gavin Williams (4) Alex Cobb (5) Ben Lively
Starting pitching has, over the past decade, been a strength for Cleveland. But injuries to the projected top three of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen have left this rotation undermanned all season. Manager Stephen Vogt’s team has thrived anyway, thanks in large part to a phenomenal defense and a magnificent bullpen.
But come October, this Guardians staff will be put to the test. Bibee, still just 25 years old, is more solid than dominant. Boyd and Cobb were emergency in-season additions who have performed admirably. Williams can go from ace to catastrophe within a start. The truncated October schedule means Cleveland can deploy its bullpen uber-aggressively, but that matters only if these arms can keep games close.
(1) Pablo López (2) Bailey Ober (3) Simeon Woods Richardson (4) David Festa (5) Zebby Matthews
It has been a weird season for López, who was roughed up for much of April and May. But the Minnesota ace has put the pieces back together with a 2.35 ERA over his past 15 starts. Ober has taken a nice step forward this year but is probably a Game 3 or 4 starter for a top-shelf rotation.
Behind that duo, it’s three rookies, all of whom have had up-and-down years. Woods Richardson has been the most consistent. Like Cleveland, this team leans heavily on its bullpen.
(1) Corbin Burnes (2) Zach Eflin (3) Albert Suárez (4) Dean Kremer (5) Cade Povich
This was not the plan. Not even a little bit. John Means, Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish all underwent midseason elbow surgery. Deadline addition Trevor Rogers was a catastrophe. Grayson Rodriguez hasn’t pitched since late July and is unlikely to return in time to start a playoff game.
That leaves Baltimore with a razor-thin group behind ace Corbin Burnes, who has rebounded from a bad August, and trade acquisition Zach Eflin. Suárez, a 34-year-old journeyman who pitched overseas for five years, has been a great story but is overmatched as a potential Game 3 starter. The same goes for Kremer, who was thrust into a Game 3 start in last year’s ALDS and got punished. Burnes and the lineup will need to carry this club.
(1) Tarik Skubal (2) Keider Montero (3) Brant Hurter (4) Reese Olson
The underdog Tigers have lingered around the postseason picture, thanks to stellar outings from AL Cy Young favorite Skubal and a hodgepodge of anonymous hurlers. Montero hasn’t allowed an earned run in his past 15 innings, and Hurter, who has been working as a bulk reliever following an opener, carried a perfect game into the eighth against the Orioles last week.
If Detroit sneaks into the playoff field, this team’s pitching is well set up for the unpredictability of October.
(1) Freddy Peralta (2) Frankie Montas (3) Tobias Myers (4) Aaron Civale
The Brewers traded away Corbin Burnes in February and rank higher on this list than the team that acquired him. Sure!
Peralta is a legit frontline guy. Montas has made a leap since coming over at the deadline. Myers has the third-lowest ERA among rookies with 100 innings this year, behind only Paul Skenes and Shota Imanaga. Civale is a kitchen sink artist who can grind through a lineup twice and hand the ball over to Milwaukee’s strong bullpen.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
(1) Zac Gallen (2) Merrill Kelly (3) Brandon Pfaadt (4) Eduardo Rodriguez (5) Ryne Nelson* (6) Jordan Montgomery
If three-quarters of this group hadn’t worked deep into last October’s madness, they’d be slotted behind the Brewers. But experience matters. Gallen, Kelly and Pfaadt were all stupendous in 2023 but have been hurt, underwhelming or both throughout this regular season. Rodriguez and Montgomery, Arizona’s big winter signings, have both thoroughly disappointed. Nelson is currently on the shelf due to a shoulder issue but could throw big innings if Arizona makes a run.
(1) Jack Flaherty (2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3) Walker Buehler (4) Landon Knack (5) Gavin Stone* (6) Clayton Kershaw*
Losing Tyler Glasnow for the rest of the year was a massive blow for the Dodgers, who have an All-Star team’s worth of pitching on the injured list. Flaherty has shown well since coming over at the deadline. Yamamoto has made just two four-inning starts since his return and will continue to be on a strict limit even into October. Games he pitches will require more support from an already taxed Dodger ‘pen. Buehler has been rocky at points through his first year back from elbow surgery, but he threw well last weekend in Atlanta and could be rounding into form.
Beyond that trio, it’s guesswork. Stone and Kershaw are both on the injured list but could return for the playoffs. Even if Shohei Ohtani makes a heroic return to the mound, it’s unlikely he would appear in a starting role.
(1) Cole Ragans (2) Seth Lugo (3) Michael Wacha (4) Brady Singer
No rotation has accumulated more starting rotation WAR than the Royals this season, which, given their history as a pitching graveyard, is quite the accomplishment. The club was surprisingly aggressive in free agency, bringing in Lugo and Wacha to join the rotation. Both vets are enjoying career years, while Ragans has proven that his electric second half last year was no fluke. Singer hasn’t made the leap but is a sturdy, non-offensive fourth starter.
(1) Luis Severino (2) Sean Manaea (3) David Peterson (4) Tylor Megill (5) Jose Quintana (6) Kodai Senga*
The surging Grimace Mets have the third-lowest rotation ERA in baseball since Aug. 1. Severino and Manaea were both buy-low free-agent additions last winter, and they have panned out masterfully well. Peterson has surrendered two runs or fewer in nine of his past 10 starts. Megill has upped the usage on his sinker over his past few outings, to great effect. Senga coming off the IL to provide a surprise boost would be icing on the cake for the Mets.
(1) Gerrit Cole (2) Carlos Rodón (3) Luis Gil (4) Nestor Cortes (5) Clarke Schmidt (6) Marcus Stroman
Whole lot of cooks in this kitchen. Stroman was moved to the bullpen last week after Schmidt came off the IL. Schmidt has been solid, though unspectacular, in his two starts back and might cede a potential Game 4 start to Cortes, who has been magnificent as a starter since he was pushed to the bullpen and back earlier this month.
No starter walks more batters on a rate basis than Gil, who still, somehow, finds a way to dodge danger. Rodón has a 3.18 ERA over his past 10 starts but remains quite homer-prone. And then there’s Cole, the ace of the staff, who has, for the most part, looked like his typical self over the past two months. If there are no lingering effects from The Intentional Walk Heard ‘Round The World (and there shouldn’t be), he’s a Game 1 lock.
(1) Chris Sale (2) Max Fried (3) Reynaldo López* (4) Spencer Schwellenbach (5) Charlie Morton
The narrative around the beleaguered Braves all season has been: If they can just get into the playoffs, their sensational starting pitching can carry them far. They’re currently two games adrift of the final NL wild-card spot, but if they can make up that difference … well … these pitchers still loom large.
Sale has been the best pitcher in MLB this season and will deservedly win the first Cy Young Award of his possible Hall of Fame career. Fried is an October stalwart who enters the postseason much healthier than he did the previous two seasons. López is on the IL due to a shoulder issue, which is spooky, but Schwellenbach (a rookie with a 3.73 ERA) and Morton (a 40-year-old with a 4.01) are superior to most team’s Game 3 and 4 starters. That said, a healthy López would’ve put the Braves a spot or two higher on this list.
(1) Dylan Cease (2) Joe Musgrove (3) Michael King (4) Yu Darvish
With Musgrove and Darvish showing well since returning from the injured list, the Padres’ rotation has gone from treading water to legitimate strength. Cease has been one of the best pitchers in the NL during the second half, and King has made the Juan Soto trade easier to swallow, with a 3.04 ERA in 29 starts.
(1) Framber Valdez (2) Yusei Kikuchi (3) Hunter Brown (4) Justin Verlander (5) Spencer Arrighetti (6) Ronel Blanco
Besides Valdez and maybe Kikuchi, this order is kind of a toss-up. Brown has the third-lowest ERA in baseball since he started throwing a sinker in late May. Blanco, with a 2.88 ERA but way past his career high in innings, probably moves to the ‘pen in October. The 41-year-old Verlander has been more sufficient than inspiring since his return from injury. Arrighetti has hit a recent rough patch after an awesome August.
No team, not even the club ahead of Houston on this list, can boast such a combo of depth and ace-ness. The only things holding the Astros back are Verlander’s bumpiness and the general inexperience of the staff beyond him and Valdez.
(1) Zack Wheeler (2) Aaron Nola (3) Cristopher Sánchez (4) Ranger Suárez
If you watched a postseason baseball game over the past few seasons, you’re probably familiar with this group. Wheeler, who will be the NL Cy Young runner-up, has a 2.48 ERA across 10 career October starts for the Phillies. Nola allowed just six runs across four postseason starts in 2023. Sánchez has broken out this season, with a 3.24 ERA in 29 starts.
Suárez is the real X-factor. The stocky Venezuelan was a Cy Young candidate through the first few months of this season, but injuries and inconsistency have pocked his past few months. He’s a slow-heartbeat October monster, but whether he works deeper this year than in autumns past will depend on whether he can recapture that spring form.
