October is finally here. It took an extra day — and a chaotic doubleheader — to determine the final two spots in the postseason bracket, but now it’s on to the wild-card round.
Four three-game series begin Tuesday, so let’s get right to it. Here’s what you need to know about the wild-card matchups.
NO. 6 DETROIT TIGERS vs. NO. 3 HOUSTON ASTROS
How they got here
Tigers: With sorcery, it seems. On the morning of Aug. 11, Detroit was eight games under .500 with a less than 1% chance of reaching the playoffs. Then the Tigers caught fire, rattling off win after win as the summer drew to a close. Each improbable victory only made the beast stronger, only made team and fan base believe more and more. And so, propelled in part by a legendary collapse from the Minnesota Twins, the “Gritty Tigs” did it, clinching a playoff spot on the final weekend of the regular season.
They are led by a veteran manager in AJ Hinch, who now returns to the city he helped turn into a baseball town. Hinch skippered the ‘Stros from 2015 to 2019, overseeing a golden era in Houston baseball before the infamous sign-stealing scandal led to his firing. Now he is a crucial character in Detroit’s story. He has deftly ushered this extremely young roster into contention, mixing and matching unheralded relievers and platoon bats to a mountain of wins.
But don’t get it twisted: Detroit has a pair of real superstars. Lefty hurler Tarik Skubal will win the AL Cy Young. He has a 2.39 ERA and leads the league in strikeouts. Outfielder Riley Greene (.830 OPS, 5.4 bWAR) has blossomed into the game-changing force Detroit dreamed of when they drafted him fifth overall in 2019. Behind that duo, it’s a cadre of talented youngsters such as Parker Meadows, Wenceel Pérez, Colt Keith and Trey Sweeney who don’t know how hard Major League Baseball is supposed to be. Be warned, these Tigers are dangerous.
Astros: The Tigers aren’t the only club that authored a turnaround for the ages in 2024. On June 18, the Astros were 33-40, a whopping 10 games behind the Seattle Mariners in the AL East. By July 19, that gap had completely evaporated. So it goes in Houston, where October baseball has become something of an inevitability. This time around, the Astros made it harder on themselves, but in the end, there was only one possible outcome.
The pitching staff, in particular, improved dramatically once summer came ‘round. Hunter Brown ascended into a frontline arm, Framber Valdez rebounded from a rough start, and Ronel Blanco continued one of the season’s breakout performances. Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman also got hot. Yainer Díaz proved himself a truly special hitter. Yordan Álvarez kept taking people’s lunch money. The Astros — surprise! — turned out to be good.
And while they enter October with an embarrassment of starting pitching riches, this lineup looks more pitch-able than it has at any point during this magnificent run. Álvarez is hurt. Kyle Tucker has returned with aplomb, but the bottom of the order can be attacked. Still, these are the Astros, and it would shock nobody to see them parading down the streets of downtown Houston once more.
X-factors
Kerry Carpenter, Tigers DH
Detroit’s lefty-swinging designated hitter has the fifth-best OPS against right-handed pitching this year (minimum 250 PAs). The only players ahead of him are Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Bobby Witt Jr. Pretty solid group.
Carpenter, however, is a total lummox against southpaws, with a .408 OPS in just 32 plate appearances this season against wronghanders. Houston is set to start a pair of lefties in Games 1 and 3. How and when Detroit skipper AJ Hinch opts to use Carpenter in those matchups could decide the series.
Yordan Alvarez, Astros DH
The slugger, who cranked 35 homers with a .959 OPS this year, has been sidelined by a right knee sprain since Sept. 22, leaving his availability for the wild-card round in serious doubt. Álvarez worked out on Sunday and is set to take batting practice Monday. But even if the three-time All-Star suits up, it’s unlikely to be at full strength.
How they win
Tigers: The way they’ve been winning for the past six weeks: dominant pitching and timely offense. Skubal could dice the Astros apart in Game 1. Behind him, it’s a lot of anonymous relievers who sound like video game create-a-players — “Brant Hurter” and “Jason Foley” and “Tyler Holton” — but they’re all really good. Detroit has the lowest team ERA in MLB over the past two months. That’s not an accident.
Astros: Does this need explaining? Have you not seen this movie before? Houston has reached the ALCS seven years running. What’s an eighth? They win if October stalwarts such as Altuve, Bregman and Tucker deliver as they have so many times before. They win if the starting pitching shows up like it has all year. They win if the sheer might of being the Houston Astros counteracts whatever upside-down magic the Detroit Tigers have conjured over the past two months. They win because they always win.
Series prediction
Astros in three. I think Skubal shines in Game 1, but the Astros get it done. At this point, picking against Houston in October is for the foolish and foolhardy. Dupe me once, shame on me; dupe me eight straight autumns, shame on me again. — Mintz
NO. 5 KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs. NO. 4 BALTIMORE ORIOLES
How they got here
Orioles: A year ago, the Orioles stampeded through the AL East, winning 101 games and their first division title since 2014. Things weren’t so easy this time around. A cavalcade of injuries to Baltimore’s pitching staff made the road to October significantly more strenuous. Kyle Bradish, who finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting last year, and two other starters, John Means and Tyler Wells, all underwent season-ending elbow surgery. Grayson Rodriguez, who would’ve started Game 2 of a playoff series, is done for the year after suffering a lat strain in early August.
Still, the Birds were a half-game up on the Yankees as late as Sept. 6, but a late summer swoon sent them tumbling down the standings. Their consolation prize? The top wild card and home-field advantage. Baltimore played much better down the stretch, winning series in New York and Minnesota to close out the regular season. The return from injury of three crucial right-handed-hitting infielders — Jordan Westburg, Ramon Urías and Ryan Mountcastle — has provided the offense a massive boost.
Despite winning 10 fewer games than last season, Baltimore remains a formidable opponent. Shortstop Gunnar Henderson should finish in the top five in MVP voting and is squarely one of the best hitters in the American League. Starting pitcher Corbin Burnes has been everything the Orioles paid for in prospect capital when they acquired the ace from Milwaukee in the offseason. The lineup is deep and versatile. Camden Yards should be rocking all week, with a fan base hungry to forget both last year’s swift playoff exit and the 2014 ALCS sweep at the hands of Kansas City.
Royals: For much of this season, Kansas City was a heartwarming, feel-good story. The Royals spent coin in the offseason, adding solid veteran pieces to improve the roster around burgeoning superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. That strategy paid off, particularly on the pitching side. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, both of whom joined the Royals this past winter, enjoyed career years; the 34-year-old Lugo will get Cy Young votes for the first time. The starting pitching as a whole took an enormous step forward as the Royals surged into contention, seeking a first playoff appearance since their 2015 World Series run. And Witt was utterly phenomenal, putting up a statistical résumé worthy of an MVP in most other seasons.
But down the stretch, the Royals faltered. The lineup behind Witt went silent after first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino broke his thumb in late August. Kansas City had the single worst offense in baseball in the month of September. Only a total capitulation by the Minnesota Twins and a well-timed series sweep against the lowly Washington Nationals during the last week of the season ensured Kansas City a postseason spot.
No matter what happens in October, this Royals season was a rousing success. The 2023 Royals lost 106 games. Skipper Matt Quatraro deserves a mountain of credit for guiding this outfit from ineptitude to the postseason. Whether they can make noise this autumn depends on if the order beyond Witt can wake up from its slumber and provide a few timely knocks.
X-factors
The entire Orioles bullpen
Baltimore had the third-worst bullpen ERA in the month of September. Craig Kimbrel, whom the Orioles signed for $10 million in the offseason, was struggling so extensively that Baltimore cut him a few weeks ago. Yennier Cano, who had been the club’s most reliable bullpen arm over the past year, appears to be pitching through an injury that’s limiting his effectiveness. Other key pieces such as Seranthony Dominguez and Cionel Pérez have also scuffled. That leaves manager Brandon Hyde with a conundrum for this series: His two best arms right now are a pair of lefties in Keegan Akin and Gregory Soto, but Kansas City’s two best hitters, Witt and catcher Salvador Pérez, are both right-handed.
Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals 1B
Whether the Royals’ big-swinging first baseman is healthy enough to suit up could swing this entire series. Pasquantino has taken BP a few times over the past week, but it’s unlikely that he’s 100 percent healthy, given that, well, he broke his thumb a month ago. If he can play and provide even some of his normal production, Pasquantino offers Kansas City another offensive force alongside Witt.
How they win
Orioles: By slugging Kansas City into submission. The O’s offense spent the first few months of this season bludgeoning opponents. Injuries and a cooling off from the likes of Adley Rutschman and Ryan O’Hearn set the Birds back a peg as summer crawled along. But this team can hit. Right fielder Anthony Santander just delivered one of the best switch-hitting seasons in recent memory. Outfielder Colton Cowser has a strong chance to win AL Rookie of the Year. Henderson is a terrifying presence atop the lineup. On paper, Baltimore is a much better team, but playoff baseball is played on grass.
Royals: By keeping scores low. Kansas City’s biggest advantage in this series is its pitching depth in both the rotation and the bullpen. Lugo and Wacha are better than Eflin and Kremer. Kansas City’s second-level relievers have been much better than Baltimore’s as of late. If the Royals’ starters can keep Baltimore’s lineup at bay early in games, they’ll have a chance despite a subpar offense. This will also be Witt’s first playoff series. He has become one of the sport’s biggest young stars, but given the relative ineptitude of the hitters around him, it’ll be vital that he doesn’t press or panic. Witt should take his walks if Baltimore pitches around him, wreak havoc on the bases and hope his teammates can step up.
Series prediction
Orioles in three. Kansas City’s offense has been so, so awful of late, while Baltimore’s got healthy just in time for October. — Mintz
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NO. 6 NEW YORK METS vs. NO. 3 MILWAUKEE BREWERS
How they got here
Brewers: The Milwaukee Brewers’ season did not go the way most of us expected. After losing Craig Counsell to the Cubs and trading Corbin Burnes during spring training, it appeared as if Milwaukee would take a step back in 2024. Instead, with first-year manager Pat Murphy at the helm, Milwaukee has been the most consistent team in MLB. Despite injuries and roster turnover, the Brewers were the first team in baseball to clinch a postseason berth and a division title, and they built the largest divisional lead in baseball, finishing 10 games up on the Cardinals and Cubs.
Mets: It has been a magical season for the New York Mets, and over the final two months of the regular season, they could do no wrong. After looking like they might’ve blown their opportunity in Game 161 against Atlanta, the Mets got the biggest homer of their season from their MVP, Francisco Lindor, punching their ticket to the postseason. But even outside of Lindor’s heroics in 2024, the Mets have gotten contributions from unlikely places, and after coming into the season looking like they were headed for a rebuild, the Mets instead find themselves in the playoffs.
X-factors
Jackson Chourio, Brewers OF
At 20 years old, Jackson Chourio is a star, and the rookie outfielder has been an absolute force at the top of Milwaukee’s lineup. Not only does Chourio provide youthful energy and burst, but since the loss of Christian Yelich to season-ending back surgery, he has also emerged as the Brewers’ best player, thanks to his unique power-speed combo. He might still be 20, but in his first postseason, Chourio is going to introduce himself to the world.
Francisco Lindor, Mets SS
There has been no player more important to the Mets’ success this season than Lindor. The shortstop, who is going to finish as the runner-up in NL MVP voting, is having his best season in Queens, and it’s no surprise that his big homer against Atlanta was the hit that clinched the Mets’ berth in the postseason. It’s no secret that Lindor has been trying to play through significant pain in his back throughout the last two weeks of the season, but he has been superman for New York, and as he goes, so do the Mets. If the team can keep Lindor’s ailing back under control, that’ll be a huge boost for their lineup and the team’s morale.
How they win
Brewers: The Brewers play the cleanest baseball in the league, with their ability to pitch well, score runs, play solid defense and run the bases. If Milwaukee is able to play its usual brand of clean baseball, the Brewers have as good a chance as any team to move on to the NLDS. They don’t have the biggest names on their roster, but with a toolsy lineup, a strong rotation and one of the best closers in the game in Devin Williams, Milwaukee might be a tougher out than people think.
Mets: If the Mets win in the wild-card round, it’ll be because their magical season continues and their starting pitching that helped carry them into the postseason comes up big. With Luis Severino slated to start in Game 1, New York has the opportunity to set the tone early in the series. Offensively, the Mets have gotten production up-and-down their lineup, and if big bats such as Lindor, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil come up big, they’ll have an opportunity to play spoiler in Milwaukee.
Series prediction
Brewers in three. The Mets have been an absolute pleasure to watch over the past three months, and they might have a little magic left in the tank to win a game in this series. But the Brewers have been as consistent as any team in the league, and now that they’ve gotten to the postseason, baseball fans everywhere are about to see a clinic in playing clean baseball. With a rested bullpen, look for Milwaukee to show up big at home. — Dorsey
NO. 5 ATLANTA BRAVES vs. NO. 4 SAN DIEGO PADRES
How they got here
Padres: Early in the season, we wondered if the window in San Diego was beginning to close. Between injuries to stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado and a lack of depth in the rotation, San Diego didn’t look like a team with much of an identity. But as the season rolled along, the Padres found their stride, and with the help of 21-year-old Jackson Merrill and the resurgence of Joe Musgrove in the rotation, this team was able to flip the switch. San Diego has been the hottest team in baseball for three months, with a league-best 43-19 record since the All-Star break.
Braves: The Braves have not had an easy road to October, and that started at the beginning of the season, when they lost ace Spencer Sprider to a season-ending elbow injury. But the hits didn’t stop there, as the team also lost NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., All-Star third baseman Austin Riley and, most recently on Monday, likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale. Yet despite all the injuries and some poor play through the first half of the season, the Braves found a second gear and slowly chipped away at their deficit in the NL wild-card race on the back of strong starting pitching. After splitting Monday’s doubleheader with the Mets, they’re back in the postseason for the seventh consecutive season.
X-factors
Manny Machado, 3B
There was a time this year when Manny Machado didn’t look like himself. The Padres’ third baseman was banged up and just didn’t look comfortable in the batter’s box. But over the second half of the season, Machado finally got healthy, and now he’s looking confident, with the production to match: an .876 OPS and 16 homers since the All-Star break. As Machado goes, so does San Diego’s lineup, and with their middle-of-the-order bat only getting stronger going into the postseason, that’s good news for the Friars.
The entire Braves pitching staff
The potential loss of Chris Sale can’t be understated, as the Braves’ ace experiencing back spasms on Monday created serious questions about how Atlanta will handle its starting pitching going forward. If Sale is unable to start on Tuesday in San Diego, the Braves will have to go with one of their remaining starters on short rest, barring a move prior to Game 1. The hopes for Atlanta’s postseason lie with its arms, and in order for this tea to advance from the wild-card round, they’ll need big-time performances from their starters and from a bullpen that had to work hard to even get them in the dance.
How they win
Padres: If the Friars advance past the wild-card round, it’ll be because their momentum, opportunistic offense and strong bullpen carry them into the NLDS. GM AJ Preller made some key bullpen additions at the trade deadline, bolstering the team’s high-leverage arms by adding Tanner Scott and Jason Adam. If the Padres’ starters can shorten games, get to the team’s elite arms in the pen and finish games with All-Star closer Robert Suarez, San Diego has a chance to make a serious run in this postseason.
Braves: If the Braves are able to defeat the Padres, it means their resilience and championship pedigree helped them overcome the vast amount of injuries they’ve dealt with all year. Marcell Ozuna has been one of baseball’s best hitters this season, and he has the ability to be a game-wrecker. While the Braves’ offense as a whole has had a down season, first baseman Matt Olson has come back to life, and with Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II back from injuries, Atlanta has a chance to score some runs. Still, a valiant effort will be needed by their starting staff and bullpen, likely featuring a few big starts on short rest and some big outs from an already gassed bullpen.
Series prediction
Padres in two. The fact that the Braves were able to back into a postseason appearance is truly amazing, considering their bad luck with injuries this season. But they happened to grab the shortest straw, as the Padres are the most dangerous team in this postseason field. Their lineup is healthy, their starters are rolling, and their bullpen might be the best in baseball. It’s San Diego’s time. — Dorsey
